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Blackburn Rovers were supposed to be battling relegation from the Championship - so is their promotion push for real or a false dawn?
The Championship is too chaotic to ever truly ‘settle down’, but now that we’re over the halfway mark the promotion picture is starting to take solid shape. Most of the teams at the top are those you might expect – Leeds and Sheffield United in the top two, freshly-relegated Burnley just behind, and so on – but given how bad they were for much of last season, it’s rather more surprising to see Blackburn Rovers hanging around in the top six as well. Can a team that barely survived relegation really go all the way to the Premier League?
When John Eustace took over as manager in February, the picture was pretty bleak. Former manager Jon Dahl Tomasson’s reign had started in promising fashion but the team was disintegrating, morale was low and form was through the floor. Nor did Eustace’s appointment cause a swift 180 – Blackburn became a little tougher in defence, but still lost rather more than they won.
It took the goals of Sammie Szmodics, the league’s leading scorer, and a last-day win over a Leicester City side which seemed to be halfway through a champagne hangover after the winning the title, for disaster to be averted. Eustace had done enough to ensure survival – just about – but with Szmodics off to Ipswich and funds for new arrivals limited, few fans had much optimism heading into the new season. Another relegation battle looked likely.
Instead, they started strongly and, after a brief wobble, have won five consecutive games to re-enter the top six. Without Szmodics, goals have been predictably hard to come by – a relatively slim 23 in 19 games so far – but Eustace’s defence has been a miracle of organisation and hard graft, and their Tuesday evening victory away to Sheffield Wednesday marked their fourth 1-0 win on the bounce.
Even the most ardent supporter would struggle to describe this Blackburn side as a joy to watch, although it’s certainly more palatable than the chaotic, shapeless side that managed just one league win across the entirety of January, February and March. Eustace runs with a rigid low block which asks the forward line to sit deep and track back, with the wingers spending just as much time backing up the defence as they do getting at the other team.
The result is a side which usually allows possession to be lionised by the opposition and allows a lot of long-range shot while generating few chances of their own – although those that they do generate tend to be good, often created through quick breaks and sharp passing moves, fuelled by the impressive recent form of summer signing Todd Cantwell, who is playing as well as he has done since breaking into the limelight with Norwich City a few years ago.
A swift glance at the stats might suggest that Blackburn have been ‘lucky’ a few times, but watching the games suggests otherwise. Sheffield Wednesday had 16 shots on Tuesday evening, twice as many as Blackburn, but none were convincing chances – either the densely-packed defence denied time and space for a clean connection or a clear sight at goal, or it was down to Barry Bannan to have a deeply optimistic pop from outside the area. Goalkeeper Aynsley Pears was not tested to any great degree.
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League leaders Leeds, likewise, fell to a 1-0 defeat despite having 71% possession and more attempts on goal, but all the best chances were Blackburn’s and the positional discipline with which they guard their penalty area is vastly impressive. Eustace requires a lot of hard yards from his players for his system to work but seems to have the buy-in required.
The consistency with which they batten down the hatches and keep opposing teams out means that they do now look like serious promotion contenders, even if watching them can be a somewhat soporific experience. Leeds, Burnley, Sunderland and Sheffield United (who did beat them recently) remain ahead of Blackburn in the table, and all play a more entertaining version of the game – barely, in Burnley’s case – but in terms of sheer efficacy and efficiency, it’s hard to claim that any look much better than Blackburn do right now.
With such a tight, well-drilled defensive system, there is no inherent reason that performances should decline. Fortunes may wax and wane up front, but as long as the players stick to their assignments and maintain their work rate, the back line will presumably remain rock solid. They seem to have a firm grasp on a very strong system now. The sad irony is that the only thing that Blackburn are missing is a truly ruthless goalscorer – in other words, they really needed Szmodics to stick around for one more season.
All of this is made more impressive because Blackburn are spending far less money than most of the other promotion contenders. Capology estimates that they are spending a little over £12m per year on wages – less than a third of Leeds’ outlay. The top three teams right now are all in the top four biggest spenders in the division. Sunderland are the only other team whose performances have outweighed the pennies spent to achieve them by such a large margin, but while Blackburn are hitting their stride, the Black Cats are beginning to go backwards and have won just one of their last eight.
The smart money isn’t on Blackburn. The sheer quality and resource advantage of Leeds, Sheffield United and Blackburn’s hated local rivals Burnley may be enough to keep them ahead of Eustace’s team, at least in terms of the push for automatic places. Blackburn may yet endure a bad run over the hectic Christmas period, which has been something of a tradition at the club in recent seasons, even if their playing style has never looked so sustainable. And even if they make the play-offs, only a fool bets on who goes up from there.
On the other hand, betting against doesn’t look like a brilliant idea either. Eustace took time to turn things around, but the 180 seems to be complete – from Tomasson’s free-flowing but failing team to a side that’s rigid, determined, well-organised and looks incredibly hard to beat. It may not be much fun to watch, but it’s no less impressive for that.
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