Time is running out for Mike Evans. Not in the way you think, though.
No, Evans’ 32-yard catch and run in the fourth quarter of the Bucs’ 28-13 win over the Raiders on Sunday sparked the offense and showed that the 31-year-old still has plenty left in the tank. Time isn’t quite running out on his career.
However, it is running out on his career-long 1,000-yard season streak.
Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
Evans is in danger of missing out on the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his 11-year career, which would leave his streak at 10 seasons – one shy of Jerry Rice’s all-time NFL record.
Baker Mayfield did throw for 295 yards in Sunday’s win over Las Vegas, but those 295 yards were distributed among six different pass catchers. Evans caught four of his five targets for 69 yards, which brought him to 590 yards on the year.
He now needs to average 102.5 yards per game over Tampa Bay’s final four contests in order to reach 1,000 yards for the 11th straight year and tie Rice’s record.
Of note, Evans is only averaging 59 yards per game over the 10 games he’s played in this season.
It’s not looking likely for No. 13, but all it takes is one monster performance to change those odds. He may only have one 100-yard game thus far in 2024 (Week 13 at Carolina), and it could take something like the 207-yard day he had against the Panthers in Week 17 of the 2022 season. But it’s still hard to count Mike Evans out just yet.
🚨 Mike Evans 1,000 yard tracker 🚨
Evans needs to average 102.5 receiving yards per game over the next 4 weeks to top the 1k mark for the 11th straight season 👀 pic.twitter.com/5azP3Ds2vL
— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) December 9, 2024
Can Mike Evans Go On A Monster Run Over The Final Four Games?
Bucs WR Mike Evans Photo by: USA Today
It pretty much goes without saying at this point that more than any personal milestones, Mike Evans would rather the Bucs win the last four games by any means necessary and reach the playoffs for a fifth straight year. But big Mike Evans games have often led to Bucs wins in recent years.
Now, the team’s resurgent run game has taken some pressure off the franchise’s all-time leading receiver to be a one-man show, but it’s Evans who tends to drive the passing game.
So, how about that Tampa Bay passing game? Can it generate enough over the next two or three weeks (without blatantly force-feeding Evans the ball, obviously) to give the future Hall of Famer a shot to reach 1,000 yards near the buzzer come Week 18?
It’ll be tough, especially considering the lack of deep passing elements in Liam Coen’s offense. It’s partly the lack of downfield action (along with his hamstring injury) that has dragged Evans’ stat production down this year, and it’s something that Pewter Report’s Josh Queipo wrote about all the way back on Oct. 16. Those big 150+ yard games haven’t come this year for the veteran receiver because those deep shots just aren’t as prevalent in this offense, and they haven’t needed to be.
The passing game has been plenty productive, and the run game being as good as it’s been has made it less necessary to run Evans’ target share up to 10 or 12 while throwing the ball 40+ times per game.
With all of that said, the opportunities for Evans to put up a 150+ or 200+ yard performance to close the gap between him and 1,000 might not be there. Instead, what he’ll need is some major production with a whole lot of consistency. That means like three straight 100-yard games – something in that realm.
Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today
And that could prove tough, too. The Bucs are set to play two of their final four games against pass defenses that rank in the top 12 in the NFL, as well as a Dallas defense that was ranked 13th until its performance against Joe Burrow and the Bengals on Monday night.
Tampa Bay will first see the Los Angeles Chargers, who are allowing only 206.1 passing yards per game. That ranks 8th in the NFL. Chris Olave and Tee Higgins are the only two receivers to go over 100 receiving yards in a game against Los Angeles this season.
The Bucs will then face the Cowboys, who just allowed 369 passing yards to the Bengals on Monday night, 177 of which came through Ja’Marr Chase. Dallas is now averaging 223.4 yards per game through the air, which ranks 22nd in the league.
In Week 17, the Bucs welcome in the Panthers, who are 12th in the league against the pass. They’re allowing 214.3 yards per game through the air, though Evans did just have a 118-yard game against them two weeks ago.
And then comes the worst pass defense left on Tampa Bay’s schedule, which is New Orleans’ in Week 18. The Saints are giving up 246.3 yards per game, which ranks 28th. That could prove beneficial in Evans’ quest for 1,000 yards, especially with no more Marshon Lattimore on the Saints defense to potentially lead to an early ejection (half-kidding about that…?).
So, the odds are long for Mike Evans to continue his 1,000-yard streak and tie the record of one of the NFL’s all-time greats. But as long as Tampa Bay finishes out these final four games strong and gives its own all-time great another chance to play in the postseason spotlight, the streak will be an afterthought.