If you believe that the Detroit Lions are a Super Bowl team, you won’t want to miss this week’s matchup. After playing, and winning, three games in 12 days, the Detroit Lions host one of the hottest teams in the AFC, the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are one of the top teams in the NFL and the biggest threat to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC for the top seed. This matchup could happen again in February, and it should be a different matchup than the one this week.
The Lions are coming off a big win over the Green Bay Packers on “Thursday Night Football.” Detroit clinched a playoff berth and is one game closer to keeping its divisional title. The Bills are coming off an intense loss against the Los Angeles Rams. The Bills have already clinched their division, so now they are just fighting for the top seed in the AFC.
Let’s look at the Buffalo Bills in our Week 15 scouting report for the 2024 season and see how close this game will be.
Buffalo Bills
2024 season thus far (10-3)
Week 1: DefeatedArizona Cardinals, 34-28
Week 2: DefeatedMiami Dolphins, 31-10
Week 3: DefeatedJacksonville Jaguars, 47-10
Week 4: Lost toBaltimore Ravens, 35-10
Week 5: Lost toHouston Texans, 23-20
Week 6: DefeatedNew York Jets, 23-20
Week 7: DefeatedTennessee Titans, 34-10
Week 8: DefeatedSeattle Seahawks, 31-10
Week 9: Defeated Miami Dolphins, 30-27
Week 10: DefeatedIndianapolis Colts, 30-20
Week 11: Defeated Kansas City Chiefs 30-21
Week 12: BYE
Week 13: DefeatedSan Francisco 49ers, 35-10
Week 14: Lost to Los Angeles Rams, 44-42
Stats:
2nd in points scored, 8th in points allowed
4th in DVOA
2nd in offensive DVOA (2nd in pass DVOA, 5th in run DVOA)
10th in defensive DVOA (11th pass DVOA, 8th in run DVOA)
29th in special teams DVOA
There could be a new top team in the AFC right now. Yes, the Chiefs are the defending back-to-back Super Bowl champions, but they have had multiple close victories this season, and their one loss came to who? The Buffalo Bills. Despite losing star wide receiver Stefon Diggs in the offseason, this offense—led by the current MVP favorite Josh Allen—is dangerous.
Allen has been playing some very good football this season, throwing for 3,033 yards with 23 touchdowns and only five interceptions, with a 64.1 completion percentage. Allen can do more than throw the ball; he can run, too. He has 416 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. You then think, “Well, he can’t catch the ball either, right?" You’d be wrong; he has a 7-yard receiving touchdown on the season. He was the first quarterback to ever run, catch, and throw a touchdown pass in a game in NFL history.
Allen is doing this with a receiving core that lost Diggs and needed to trade for Amari Cooper at the deadline to give him a weapon through the air. The leading receiver is Khalil Shakir with 65 catches for 735 yards and three touchdowns. Rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman is behind Shakir in yards with 22 catches for 417 yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Dalton Kincaid has stepped up, getting 34 catches for 356 yards and two touchdowns. The weapon in Cooper has been helpful since being traded, getting 16 catches for 231 yards and a touchdown in five games.
It’s more than just the receivers that move the ball for the offense as running back James Cook is having a career season so far. He has 723 yards, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, and 11 touchdowns. He can also be a receiver, getting 28 catches for 204 yards and a touchdown.
The defense for the Bills has also been excellent this season, as they have only allowed 28 or more points just twice, but are coming off their worst performance of the season. The pass rush is led by defensive end Gregory Rousseau, who leads the team in sacks with 6.5. You can’t forget future Hall of Fame linebacker Von Miller being on this defense, as he has 12 tackles and four sacks on the year. The safety duo of Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp have helped the back end of the secondary, combining for four interceptions and 11 pass deflections with a forced fumble and fumble recovery.
Injury notes
Key players ruled out: DE Dawuane Smoot (IR/wrist)
Key players to monitor: WR Keon Coleman (wrist), TE Dalton Kincaid (knee), CB Rasul Douglas (knee)
Compared to the Lions, the Bills are on the other end of the injury spectrum. Defensive end Dawuane Smoot is eligible to return from IR, but hasn’t returned to practice. Coleman and Kincaid missed the Rams game despite being limited in practice all week last week. If either one can improve to a full practice, I think they have a chance to play on Sunday. Cornerback Rasul Douglas got injured in the Rams game twice: first with a back injury, then with a knee injury.
Biggest strength: Quarterback
This team would not be where they are without Allen at quarterback. The running game wouldn’t be as effective, the defense would have smaller leads to work with, and the Bills wouldn’t have won the division again. Allen's stats aren’t eye-popping, but this is where the MVP is bigger than the stats at times. Allen and the Bills are 10-3, they are the only team to beat the Chiefs, and it was due to Allen himself on the final touchdown play of the game.
His ability to take risks, and come out successful is impressive. He is tough to bring down as a runner, too, due to his size at 6-foot-5 and 237 pounds. He has one of the strongest arms in the NFL, letting it rip deep if he has the option. He can also make the short and simple throws that the team needs. He keeps putting his stamp on the record books, like last week’s performance against the Rams, where he became the first QB in NFL history to rush and throw for three touchdowns in a game.
Allen can do it all, and when going up against a quarterback like that, you have to be at your best. The five interceptions by Allen is a career-low, and while fumbling the ball five times, he has only lost it twice. With him playing his best at limiting mistakes, that makes it even harder for defenses to try and disrupt Allen. He will take risks, but has learned he doesn’t have to take unnecessary risks.
Biggest weakness: Run defense
Where the Bills defense struggles the most is defending the run. They are 26th in the NFL in yards per carry allowed at 4.7. They are tied for seventh-most 20+ yard runs allowed with 11. It gets worse as they are tied for second-most 40+ yard runs allowed with three. This team struggles not just at stopping the run, but stopping running plays from being explosive.
The best run defenders according to PFF on the Bills are Rapp and cornerback Ja’Marcus Ingram who have an 87.3 and 83.7 run defense grade. If your top two defenders on the run are secondary members, that isn’t a good sign of what your defensive line is doing to stop the run. Miller leads the defensive line in run defense grade with a 66.8.
When facing some of the top running backs in the NFL, the Bills have struggled greatly. Ravens running back Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards and a touchdown, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor ran for 114 yards, and 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey 53 yards on seven carries before he left with an injury. The Bills have only held opposing defenses to under 100 rushing yards five times in 2024. When facing a good running back, the Bills can’t seem to get them under control.
Key matchup: Lions defense vs. Josh Allen
If Detroit wins this game, it will all depend on how the defense does up against Allen. Allen is the best quarterback they have faced this season, and this defense isn’t the same defense that was out there in Week 1. Detroit’s offense could contend in a shootout, but if the defense can’t slow down Allen, it might not be enough.
Allen’s legs will be a big problem for Detroit, who is down both of their starting defensive ends in Marcus Davenport and Aidan Hutchinson, but Za’Darius Smith will be a big help on the pass rush. A difference that Allen brings compared to other scrambling quarterbacks is he is physical and not afraid to take a hit. Allen will challenge any player on the Lions defense, no matter if you are in the secondary or in the trenches, and Detroit will have to be ready to tackle and bring him down when given the chance.
Vegas line for Sunday: Lions favored by 1.5