Azerbaijan has emerged as a discreet mediator between Turkey and Israel, using its strong bilateral ties with both nations to ease tensions and align regional interests following the regime change in Syria, Azerbaijani media reports said, citing diplomatic and regional experts.
The speculation on their role gained momentum after Hikmet Hajiyev, assistant to the Azerbaijani president, visited Israel and met with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and President Isaac Herzog on Sunday and Monday.
Pleasure to meet @HikmetHajiyev, Assistant of the President of Azerbaijan, and Head of the Foreign Policy Affairs Department of the Presidential Administration.
We discussed recent developments in the Middle East and the Caucasus, regional security, and the strong bilateral… pic.twitter.com/DYDU4IuGfG
— Gideon Sa'ar | גדעון סער (@gidonsaar) December 8, 2024
Analysts suggest that Hajiyev’s visit went beyond the usual bilateral talks and focused on promoting dialog between Turkey and Israel, whose relations have been strained over the past year due to Turkey’s harsh rhetoric on Israeli military action in Gaza. Observers believe that Azerbaijan has a central role to play in preventing potential clashes between the two nations, especially as their geopolitical interests now intersect on Syrian territory.
The collapse of now-former President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has left a power vacuum and brought Turkey and Israel into direct proximity as neighboring players in the region.
During his trip, Hajiyev conveyed the greetings of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to the Israeli president and discussed regional issues, including recent developments in Syria. While on the surface the visit appears to be routine, experts suspect it has a deeper significance as Azerbaijan quietly works to rebuild bridges between Ankara and Tel Aviv.
With Iran and Russia effectively expelled from Syria and Turkey and Israel now de facto neighbors in the region, tensions are high.
After the fall of the Assad regime, Israel targeted Syria with 480 strikes from air, sea and land and stationed ground troops in Syria. The strikes targeted military infrastructure and troops captured key areas, including areas beyond a UN-patrolled buffer zone.
Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have portrayed the actions as an effort to secure Israel and prevent strategic weapons from falling into the hands of extremists, while Arab states accuse Israel of exploiting Syria’s instability for territorial gains.
The attacks, described as some of the most intense in recent years, have further exacerbated tensions in a region already grappling with significant power shifts.
On Tuesday, Turkey accused Israel of an “occupying mentality” after its forces entered a UN-patrolled buffer zone in the Golan Heights.
The Golan Heights is a mountainous plateau at Syria’s southwestern edge, most of which was occupied by Israel during the 1967 Six-Day War. Israel later annexed the territory.
It is separated from the Syrian side by a buffer zone patrolled by UN troops.
Israel on Saturday said its forces entered the buffer zone to defend UN peacekeepers as Islamist-led rebels swiftly advanced across Syria, in what Foreign Minister Saar has insisted was a “limited and temporary step” for “security reasons.”
Turkey has condemned Israel’s incursion and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan vowed to oppose any attempts to divide Syria or undermine the new government, signaling Turkey’s intention to assert its influence in the region.
Speaking to the Azerbaijani Qaynarinfo news website, Nazim Jafarsoy, deputy chairman of the Caucasian Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies, said that Hajiyev’s meeting with Israeli Foreign Minister Sa’ar was about recent developments in Syria and their impact on Azerbaijani-Israeli relations.
Jafarsoy noted that the situation in Syria links Azerbaijan and Israel through the new Syrian government’s close ties with Turkey and Israel’s apparent interest in restoring relations with Turkey through Azerbaijan’s mediation.
He added that this is not a new role for Baku, which has acted as a mediator before in times of tension between Ankara and Tel Aviv. Against the backdrop of the developing dynamics in Syria, Azerbaijan’s role in facilitating dialog between Israel and Turkey was a key topic of discussion, according to Jafarsoy.
The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline further undergirds Azerbaijan’s importance in this trilateral equation. The pipeline, which transports Azerbaijani oil to the Mediterranean via Turkey, has become an important energy supply route for Israel, accounting for a large share of its crude oil imports. Despite Turkey’s public stance against Israel’s policy in Gaza, oil supplies have continued to flow through the BTC pipeline.
“A large portion of our oil comes from Azerbaijan. As you know, the Azerbaijani company SOCAR [State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan] is about to announce a tender for gas exploration in Israel. Our countries also collaborated on security and the joint fight against terrorism. We’re seeing increasing cooperation in people-to-people relations, business and culture,” George Deek, Israeli ambassador to Baku, was quoted by Azerbaijani media as saying.
Activists and critics have accused Turkey of hypocrisy as dozens of ships have reportedly left Turkish ports for Israel in recent weeks, carrying goods, including oil, that could indirectly support Israel’s military operations while Turkey is a vocal critic and has officially enacted a trade ban. Azerbaijan’s SOCAR, a major player in the BTC pipeline, has remained a key supplier to Israel and has kept the three nations economically intertwined.
The significance of Hajiyev’s visit to Israel was not lost on Turkish pundits, who pointed that after the visit President Erdoğan spoke on the phone with Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev on Tuesday.
Feyzi İşbaşaran, a former lawmaker from Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party who is now critical of Erdoğan, emphasized the potential role of Hajiyev’s visit as an attempt at mediation.
“Azerbaijan’s presidential aide Hikmet Hajiyev recently met with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Israel. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev had previously acted as a mediator between Turkey and Israel. It is likely that President Aliyev informed President Erdoğan about this meeting,” İşbaşaran said on the social media platform X, commenting on a phone call between Aliyev and Erdoğan that took place on Tuesday, after Hajiyev’s visit.
Barçın Yinanç, a prominent Turkish journalist, echoed this view on T24 news website, pointing to Azerbaijan’s history of behind-the-scenes diplomacy between the two nations.
Critics argue that Erdoğan’s government is contradicting its pro-Palestinian rhetoric with policies that enable Israel’s military operations in Gaza.
Israel launched a military campaign in Gaza following a Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 that resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people and the taking of some 250 hostages.
According to the health ministry in Gaza, more than 44,600 people have been killed in Gaza since then, mostly civilians. The UN has said the figures are reliable.
A report released by Amnesty International on December 5 concludes that Israel’s actions in Gaza qualify as genocide.