While Moscow showed no signs of major withdrawal from Syria following Sunday’s ousting of the Moscow-backed Assad regime, an evacuation might well be underway.
Russia has two main military bases in Syria – the Khmeimim Air Base in Lakatia and the Tartus Naval Base, both located on the Mediterranean coast, with other smaller bases and outposts scattered across the country. Moscow established a permanent military presence in both bases in 2017.
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In short, the recent air traffic alone is likely insufficient to indicate a major withdrawal, but more Russian warships are inbound toward Tartus for a potential naval evacuation, with those previously in Tartus already loitering on the Mediterranean Sea.
Khmeimim Air Base
Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) said Tuesday that “several An-124 and Il-76MD aircraft” were scheduled to fly from Khmeimim to the Ulyanovsk, Chkalovsky and Privolzhsky airfields in Russia as part of Moscow’s evacuation efforts.
Financial Times (FT), citing expert comments and satellite images on Monday and Tuesday, said flight traffic at the Khmeimim Air Base is insufficient to indicate a “hurried departure.”
Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, acknowledged in a comment to FT based on satellite imagery and transponder traffic that the flights are “strong indicators of change” while asserting that the tempo of arrivals and departures is inconsistent with a hurried departure.
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“The strong indicators of change are how many Ilyushins and Antonovs are cycling through. And if they have to leave Tartus, you’d actually see more ships show up to help move things out,” Massicot said.
“If an evacuation was happening, we would know.”
Those ships might soon show up, however.
Tartus Naval Base
HUR, in its Tuesday statement, said Alexander Otrakovsky and Ivan Gren, two large landing ships of the Northern Fleet of Russia, have already departed for the Mediterranean Sea. HUR added that Russian frigates Admiral Gorshkov and Admiral Golovko would also participate in the operation.
Massicot said more ships would be required to “help move things out” – and it is safe to assume that those ships are inbound toward Tartus to fulfill that task, considering the unlikelihood of Moscow deploying more troops to combat the rebels alone without the backing of the deposed Assad regime.
That said, Kyiv Post cannot ascertain that those ships are inbound for Syria, though it is the only likely option considering the circumstances.
Several ships also departed Tartus recently, though they do not appear to be heading back towards Russia yet.
FT, citing satellite images, also said two Russian frigates, a submarine and a support vessel previously stationed in Tartus as of Dec. 6 were seen holding their positions 8-10km (5-6 miles) off the Mediterranean coast.
Massicot asserted that Moscow relocated the ships to prevent them from being attacked by mortar fire.
However, FT noted that a tricky journey awaits the Russian navy if a naval evacuation from Tartus is underway.
“If Russia decided to evacuate its naval presence, the ships would be likely to be [sic] barred by the Turkish government from crossing into the Black Sea via the Bosphorus. In such a case, the nearest Russian base would be Kaliningrad on the Baltic – a long sea journey involving refueling on a route surrounded by NATO countries,” FT reported.
If the ships have already departed from Russia, they will likely reach the Strait of Gibraltar in a few days, which would then be another few days before reaching Syria through the Mediterranean Sea.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also said Monday that Moscow was in discussion with Turkey about Syria – potentially to negotiate passage via the Bosphorus, but that would also place Russian ships within range of Ukrainian missiles in the Black Sea, even if an agreement pans out somehow.
What will happen to Russia’s Syrian military bases?
No one knows, but Moscow is likely having discussions to maintain some control over the bases, which could explain why there has not been a “hurried departure” yet.
Russian officials claimed on Sunday and Monday that Moscow received security guarantees from rebels who ousted the regime that Moscow’s bases and diplomatic missions would be protected.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov also said Monday that discussions were ongoing, but the fate of the Russian bases remained unclear.
Of course, the talks might simply be Moscow’s attempt at buying time to prepare its evacuation efforts.
Theoretically, Moscow can exchange its assets in Syria to retain control over its military bases, considering its sizable investments in the country’s oil, gas and mining sectors throughout the last decade.
But whether the rebels would even consider a potential deal with Moscow, considering their disdain for the Assad regime that Moscow supported, is another question.