A protester wears a mask with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's face at a rally calling for his impeachment in Seoul on Dec 11. PHOTO: REUTERS
SEOUL – The walls are closing in on South Korean leader Yoon Suk Yeol as a second impeachment motion, set for a Dec 14 vote, gains growing support from lawmakers, including some from his own party.
But before that even happens, there is a high chance that the president may get arrested, observers say.
He is being investigated concurrently by three separate agencies for declaring martial law on Dec 3, which he was forced to repeal just hours later.
South Korean police had raided Mr Yoon’s office on Dec 11 to search for evidence related to the martial law decree and for minutes of a Cabinet meeting held shortly before his announcement. They had earlier raided the office and residence of former defence minister Kim Yong-hyun, who had allegedly proposed the martial law plan to the president.
National police commissioner Cho Ji-ho and Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency Commissioner Kim Bong-sik were also arrested early on Dec 11 on insurrection charges, local media reported.
Separately, the prosecution’s office announced the same day that it has gathered multiple testimonies alleging that Mr Yoon had directed the entire martial law process from its announcement to the deployment of military forces, and it aims to bring him in for questioning by the end of this week.
While impeachment would remove him from office, the criminal charges of insurrection will see Mr Yoon face either the death penalty or indefinite imprisonment. South Korean law precludes a sitting president from prosecution except on charges of treason and insurrection.
Mr Yoon is also facing allegations of using his powers to block lawmakers from entering the National Assembly to vote on a repeal and also ordering the arrest of several key politicians including his own ruling People Power Party’s chief, Han Dong-hoon.
The prosecution had arrested Mr Kim on Dec 8. The former minister attempted suicide in the detention facility on Dec 11, reportedly using a shirt and underwear, but was discovered in time. He is unhurt.
The third agency investigating Mr Yoon is the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO), which slapped him with a travel ban on Dec 9.
Kyonggi University’s professor of political science and law Hahm Sung-deuk told the Straits Times there are two scenarios that would lead to an immediate arrest for Mr Yoon.
One would be a confession from Mr Kim that Mr Yoon had masterminded the Dec 3 plot. As at Dec 10, Mr Kim was still maintaining that “all responsibility for this situation” laid solely with him.
A second scenario would be if the investigators unearth sufficient evidence of Mr Yoon’s wrongdoings. This would be the more likely scenario which may happen very soon, Prof Hahm predicted, as the three agencies are in a race to complete investigations first, in a bid to showcase their competencies.
The opposition-led National Assembly passed a Bill on Dec 10, mandating that a permanent special counsel investigates insurrection charges against Mr Yoon.
The permanent special counsel will conduct an independent investigation from the other agencies, to minimise potential interference by the president or the government.
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But a fourth party joining the fray would actually slow down the court process, said Seoul National University’s law professor Lee Jae-min.
“The criminal court will have a hard time trying to deconflict the various investigations and charges and this might take a long time,” he told ST, adding that ordinarily, the prime minister or the justice minister would step in and make them cooperate with one another.
“But this martial law case is an extraordinary incident involving the president, and it appears that nobody has the authority to make that decision.”
On top of his legal troubles, Mr Yoon also faces a higher likelihood of impeachment in the National Assembly’s vote on Dec 14.
An earlier impeachment motion on Dec 7 failed to meet the two-third majority of vote quorum, as almost all the lawmakers from Mr Yoon’s ruling party had boycotted the vote.
This time round, at least five PPP lawmakers have indicated their intention to support the second motion, following mounting pressure from the public.
Mr Yoon is believed to prefer the impeachment route, as he is raring to argue the legitimacy of his martial law declaration at South Korea’s Constitutional Court.
The unusual circumstances of the martial law fiasco has also led to much confusion on what happens if a sitting president is arrested and detained, something that the South Korean constitution does not cover, saod law professor Lim Ji-bong from Seoul’s Sogang University.
“It is such an unprecedented incident, and no one actually envisioned the possibility of it,” he told foreign journalists at a press briefing on Dec 11.
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In the case of former president Park Geun-hye, she was impeached and suspended from duties in March 2017 before being arrested three weeks later.
She was sentenced to 25 years in prison in April 2018 for abuse of power and coercion, but was pardoned by her successor Moon Jae-in in December 2021.
Although it is technically possible for Prime Minister Han Duck-soo to serve as caretaker of the government as an interim measure, he is also being probed for failing to stop Mr Yoon’s martial law plans, Prof Lim pointed out.
In fact, more than half of the Cabinet ministers who had attended a meeting just before Mr Yoon’s martial law declaration are now facing possible impeachment motions as well, for failing to prevent the debacle.
As the meeting included Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok, it leaves Deputy Prime Minister Lee Ju-ho as the next possible interim leader, says Prof Lim.
Mr Lee had confirmed in a written statement to the National Assembly on Dec 9 that he was not in attendance at the Cabinet meeting, as he had not been notified to attend.
Meanwhile, Mr Yoon has stepped back from active duty, with Prime Minister Han and PPP party chief Han Dong-hoon announcing on Dec 8 that they would cooperate closely on state affairs.
But this arrangement has been criticised as unconstitutional.
Prof Lim pointed out the party chief is not an elected public official, and therefore should not hold any authoritative powers.
“Political crises cannot be resolved through legally baseless statements or actions,” he said. “It is a dangerous situation, and any deviation from clear legal principles only increases confusion and risk.”
The cleanest solution out of the constitutional confusion and leadership vacuum, Prof Hahm said, would be for Mr Yoon to resign and snap presidential elections to be called within 60 days of the president’s departure.
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