Arsenal are closing in on a Champions League knockout spot despite two full rounds of matches being left to play. The final group phase table will not be completed until the end of January, but with only one game to go before Christmas, things are looking up for Mikel Arteta.
His side are already three points ahead of Feyenoord in 25th - and therefore outside of the qualification places - as well as being six clear of 26th place Stuttgart. Paris Saint Germain, in 24th, are also on seven, having played a game more than Feyenoord before Wednesday's fixtures.
It means that for Arsenal to finish ahead of Stuttgart, they only need four points from the remaining three games. Shakhtar Donetsk (also four points) can only reach 10 and match Arsenal. As for PSG, they can get a maximum of 13, meaning that Arsenal are one win away from almost certainly coming above Luis Enrique's men.
To create a buffer big enough to ensure progress, Arsenal know that bettering Feyenoord's result on Wednesday will almost secure safe passage into the next stage. The ultimate aim is not to only be in the top 24, though.
Arsenal will be keen to climb up the table and into the top eight. A place among the elite means avoiding an extra knockout round to come.
The best-placed eight sides all go through immediately to the last 16, whereas those between ninth and 24th enter an effective play-off, or round of 32. Arsenal are currently 10th, having played a game less than Atalanta above them.
Victory over Monaco (11th with 10 points and level with Arsenal, behind only on goal difference) will leave Arteta at least seventh heading into 2025. Just what are the benefits of this in the long run? Here, football.london has a look.
Schedule boost
The most obvious one, perhaps, is that Arsenal will have two less games to play. Manchester City are almost certainly going to be need the extra two if they are to qualify, which would be more for Pep Guardiola to consider in his attempts to get a title challenge back on.
Liverpool have already sent themselves through as a top-eight side - the only team to do so - which is just more for Arne Slot to be happy about. As Carabao Cup and FA Cup matches come into play in January and February 2025, though, Arsenal will be hopeful of avoiding another two games on their calendar.
The play-off is scheduled for Tuesdays and Wednesdays on February 11/12 and 18/19. Arsenal are currently due to face City on February 2 but might have an FA Cup fourth-round tie to play in the middle. Avoiding all totally avoidable matches at this stage is certainly suggested.
Pathway to the final
Going through the top eight will mean that Arsenal cannot face a Premier League side coming out of the play-off round. Aston Villa and City, as mentioned, are still in with a shout of being in that group.
Villa are in a strong position to go through as a top-eight team. Arsenal, though, will just be looking to land a favourable draw when, as anticipated, they get to the knockouts. The rest of the tournament will take shape in a more familiar appearance.
Money talks
In a world of financial fair play restrictions, not only does simply making the Champions League have serious benefits, but so does progression through the competition. On top of extra matches - and therefore gameday revenue - there is a larger kitty available.
Making the last-16 will grant Arsenal £9.27million which is a significant rise on getting to the play-offs (and includes fewer games, as mentioned). There is also a chance to cash in on some huge win bonuses.
Group phase victories bring in £2.77million per match, which leaves almost £9million left to play for. Finishing higher up will also bring about getting more 'shares' from the bonus system, just as more incentives for Arsenal.
Mikel Arteta with Arsenal stars Thomas Partey, Declan Rice and Kai Havertz (Photo by Gualter Fatia/Getty Images)
Mikel Arteta with Arsenal stars Thomas Partey, Declan Rice and Kai Havertz (Photo by Gualter Fatia/Getty Images)
Worst-case scenario
This one is much harder for Arsenal to predict but given they are not yet granted the assurance of qualification, let alone a top-eight finish, Arteta has less chance to rotate his squad. Unlike Liverpool and Slot, who can now prioritise the Premier League and domestic cups, Arsenal have to keep going all out to get through.
On an already stretched squad which is suffering regular injury setbacks, it is far from ideal for Arteta. Picking up yet more fitness problems in the last two group matches (ones that haven't existed previously) would be a hammer blow.