Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.
The Bucs improved to 7-6 on the season and retook the lead in the NFC South from the Falcons, who lost their fourth straight game and slumped to 6-7. Up next for Tampa Bay are a pair of road games at Los Angeles and Dallas before two home games against Carolina and New Orleans to end the season. The 8-5 Chargers are the only team with a winning record that the Bucs will face down the stretch.
What’s At Stake For The Bucs
Bucs HC Todd Bowles and DB Tykee Smith – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay is surging after its bye week, winning three straight games and is in control of its destiny. Should the Bucs win out, they’ll claim a fourth straight NFC South title and the automatic home playoff game that comes with it. Tampa Bay has benefited from a much easier schedule following the bye, and Los Angeles is the only remaining team with a winning record and thus presents the most formidable challenge.
The Bucs have been reeling from injuries all season and were dealt a big blow last Sunday with star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. suffering a knee injury that will sideline him for several games. Todd Bowles’ secondary was already missing starting strong safety Jordan Whitehead, who is on injured reserve with a pectoral strain he suffered in New York, and his replacement Mike Edwards, who pulled a hamstring in Carolina. Tampa Bay is running out of bodies at the safety position, and is also thin at linebacker with starter K.J. Britt (foot) and reserve J.J. Russell (hamstring) missing last week’s game.
While the Bucs defense has performed better since the bye, allowing an average of just 14.3 points game, Liam Coen’s offense is still carrying the team. Tampa Bay is averaging 27.9 points per game, which ranks fifth in the NFL. And the offense has relied on a dominant performance by the O-line this year and the league’s eighth-ranked rushing attack, which averages 138.8 yards per game. The Chargers have one of the stingiest defenses in the league, as L.A. is first in scoring defense, allowing just 15.9 points per game.
What’s At Stake For The Chargers
Chargers QB Justin Herbert Photo by: USA Today
After a 7-3 start, the Chargers have lost two of their last three games, but those defeats came at the hands of a couple of AFC powerhouses in the Ravens and the Chiefs. Los Angeles’ lone win during the last three games came at Atlanta, where the Chargers defense picked off Kirk Cousins four times. Now at 8-5, Los Angeles needs to secure a few more wins to clinch a Wild Card playoff spot in the AFC. After getting swept by Kansas City, the Chargers have already conceded the AFC West division title to the Chiefs.
L.A. is led by its defense under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers have the top-ranked scoring defense and rank 11th in total defense (323.7 yards allowed per game), eighth in passing defense (206.1 yards allowed per game), and are tied for 14th in rushing defense (117.6 yards allowed per game). Harbaugh’s game plan is to run the ball on offense, pass the ball conservatively and play great defense. So far it’s worked as Los Angeles is in prime position to make the playoffs in Harbaugh’s first year back in the NFL.
While quarterback Justin Herbert is having a very good year with 14 touchdown passes and just one interception, he did suffer a leg and ankle injury in the 19-17 loss to Kansas City last Sunday. While he’s expected to play, he’ll be without leading rusher J.K. Dobbins, who is on injured reserve, and could be without leading receiver, rookie Ladd McConkey, who is dealing with shoulder and knee injuries. Running back Gus Edwards and Quentin Johnston will be counted on to pick up the slack and help Herbert pick up yards and put points on the scoreboard.
The Bucs Win If…
Bucs NCB Tykee Smith – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay needs to score touchdowns and not field goals in Los Angles to get the win. The Bucs are averaging 27.9 points per game this year, and have averaged exactly 28 points over the last three wins. The consistency of Liam Coen’s offense lighting up the scoreboard is something to behold. If Baker Mayfield and Co. can continue at that pace, it may be difficult for the Chargers to catch up. Los Angeles does not have an explosive, high-powered offense, so getting an early lead could go a long way to winning the team’s fourth straight game.
Baker Mayfield has thrown four interceptions in the last two games after not throwing a pick for three straight games prior to that. He’ll need to do a much better job of protecting the football on the road against an opportunistic Chargers defense that has recorded 39 sacks and 13 interceptions this season. Establishing a steady ground attack should take some of the pressure off Mayfield.
Defensively, the Bucs finally recorded an interception last week with rookie nickelback Tykee Smith doing the honors in his return to action after missing three games with a knee injury. That snapped a six-game streak without a pick. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has only been picked off once and has gone 11 straight games without throwing an interception. If the Bucs can win the turnover battle and force Herbert into a mistake or two, they could come away with a West Coast victory on Sunday.
The Chargers Win If…
Falcons QB Kirk Cousins – Photo by: USA Today
As previously mentioned, Los Angeles has the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense, surrendering just under 16 points per game. Tampa Bay has only been held under 20 points in one game this year, which was in a 26-7 loss to Denver back in Week 3. So something has to give. If the Chargers defense can apply pressure on quarterback Baker Mayfield and force him into some mistakes, that will go a long way in keeping the Bucs off the scoreboard.
Los Angeles has only allowed two teams to score more than 20 points this year – allowing 27 to Cincinnati in a 34-27 win and 30 to Baltimore in a 30-23 defeat. And that’s important because the Chargers offense isn’t terribly dynamic to begin with. Factor in leading rusher J.K. Dobbins being on injured reserve and rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey questionable to play with shoulder and knee injuries, and points could be at a premium for L.A. The Chargers will have to hope for a low-scoring, defensive slugfest to stand the best chance of winning.
The Chargers have a decided edge on special teams, and they have a really good punter in JK Scott, who averages 46.9 yards with a 42.1-yard net. He’s nailed 25 punts inside the 20 with just three touchbacks. Field goal kicker Cameron Dicker is as reliable as they come with just two misses this year and a 93.3% field goal percentage and an 88.5% percentage on extra points. Return specialist Derius Davis could go off against Tampa Bay, as he’s averaged 29.5 yards on kick returns and 13.6 yards on punt returns. The Bucs’ coverage units have been decent, but not great this year.
Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense
Bucs OTs Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke vs. Chargers OLBs Tuli Tuipuluto and Khalil Mack
Chargers OLB Khalil Mack – Photo by: USA Today
The Chargers have a potent pair of pass rushers in future Hall of Famer Khalil Mack and former second-round pick Tuli Tuipuluto. Those two have combined for 12.5 sacks, led by Tuipuluto’s 7.5 QB captures. Even at age 33 Mack is still a formidable pass rusher and is the highest-graded defender on the Chargers defense, according to Pro Football Focus. Mack has a 91.7 PFF grade and leads Los Angeles with 39 pressures. Tuipuluto is second on the team with 32 QB pressures this year and is coming into his own as a pass rusher. Playing opposite Mack certainly helps.
Last week, Baker Mayfield was sacked four times, but a couple of those sacks were on him for holding on to the ball too long. Mayfield didn’t feel comfortable in the pocket from the second quarter on, and that led to a pair of interceptions and a fumble, which came on a sack surrendered by running back Sean Tucker. Bucs offensive tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke will have their hands full on Sunday from both Mack and Tuipuluto.
Wirfs has yet to surrender a sack this year in 12 games, according to Pro Football Focus, and Goedeke has only allowed one in nine games. The two have only allowed a combined 20 pressures with Wirfs surrendering nine and Goedeke credited with 11. As if Mack and Tuipuluto weren’t enough to contend with, the Chargers also have tremendous depth at outside linebacker with Bud Dupree and Joey Bosa, who has battled hip and back injuries this year. Dupree has five sacks and Bosa has gotten to the QB four times in 2024.
Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense
Bucs CBs Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum vs. Chargers WR Quentin Johnston
Bucs CB Jamel Dean – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R
Johnston hasn’t lived up to his first-round draft billing from a year ago and become a dominant WR1 in Los Angeles yet. After catching 38 passes for 431 yards and two touchdowns in an up-and-down rookie year, Johnston is on his way to eclipsing those numbers in 2024 with 29 catches for 414 yards with four games left in the regular season. Where Johnston has shined is scoring touchdowns with a personal-best and team-high seven TDs this year.
The lack of development from Johnston last year led to the Chargers drafting Ladd McConkey near the top of the second round. The rookie from Georgia has been Justin Herbert’s favorite target this season and leads L.A. with 58 catches for 815 yards and four touchdowns. McConkey missed the Chiefs game last week due to injury and is questionable of this week’s game against the Bucs. So look for Johnston to possibly be the main receiving threat again in Week 15. He’s coming off one of his best games of the year in a 19-17 loss to Kansas City where he caught five passes for 48 yards and a touchdown.
Johnston plays primarily on the left side of the formation and will square off against cornerback Jamel Dean quite a bit on Sunday. At 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, Dean has enough size to match up with the 6-foot-3, 215-pound receiver. But Johnston will also see some time on the right side going up against left cornerback Zyon McCollum, who has struggled with physical receivers, such as San Francisco’s Jauan Jennings, who had over 100 yards in a 23-20 win at Tampa Bay back in Week 10.