Macron is expected to name a new premier by the end of the day Thursday to replace Barnier. Several names have been floated in the French press, but the leading rumor suggests he may appoint one of his earliest supporters, centrist François Bayrou. However, representatives from different left-wing parties have already made clear that they are against Bayrou’s potential appointment.
To avoid having Bayrou or whoever becomes the next prime minister toppled within 90 days, Macron on Tuesday hosted all political forces represented in parliament at the Elysée except for the National Rally and the left-wing France Unbowed — which has vowed to try to take down any government not led by the left — to discuss a path forward.
The meeting produced two key points of agreement: that a government should not rely on Le Pen, and that there would be no German-style broad government coalition including opposing parties.
The first option would be effectively repeating the mistake that doomed Barnier’s minority government and required it to rely on tacit support from Le Pen’s troops. The National Rally enjoyed an unprecedented level of power and influence under the arrangement, but it fell out with Barnier amid a dispute over budget cuts and tax raises aimed at bringing down France’s massive deficit.
Tuesday’s meeting, however, did not provide a clear path out of the deadlock. Leftist parties remain adamant that the next prime minister should come from their ranks after they banded together to come in first place during the summer’s snap election, even if they fell short of an absolute majority.
Macron has resisted naming a prime minister from the left and appears unlikely to do so. In an effort to reach a compromise, the Greens and Socialists have publicly pledged that their minority government would not use Article 49.3, a constitutional mechanism which allows the government to push through legislation without a vote but in turn allows lawmakers to put forward no-confidence motions.