On the heels of the Cardinals’ disappointing 3-game losing streak, amidst Kyler Murray’s and Marvin Harrison Jr.’s recent struggles, here is a question that was posed on X yesterday:
Of the 38 Cardinals’ fans who have responded to the question thus far, 67% of them eagerly want to see Monti and JG fire Drew Petzing.
Cardinals’ current rankings on offense:
Offensive yards per game: 348 —- 12th in NFL —- 2nd in NFC West
Rushing yards per game: 140 —- 6th in NFL —- 1st in NFC West
Passing yards per game: 208 —- 22nd in NFL —- 4th in NFC West
Points per game: 21.8 —- 18th in NFL —- 4th in NFC West
3rd down conversion %: 40.8% —- 11th in NFL —- 2nd in NFC West
4th down conversion %: 38.5% —- 30th in NFL —- 4th in NFC West
Offensive DVOA —- 10th in NFL —- 3rd in NFC West
PFF Grades:
Offense Overall: 81.2 —- 8th in NFL —-2nd in NFC West
Passing Game: 76.4 —- 11th in NFL —- 2nd in NFC West
Pass Blocking: 74.7 —- 5th in NFL —- 1st in NFC West
Receiving: 76.8 —- 9th in NFL —- 4th in NFC West
Running Game: 86.1 —- 10th in NFL —- 2nd in NFC West
Run Blocking: 64.3 —- 16th in NFL —- 3rd in NFC West
Conclusion —- the positives outweigh the negatives, especially considering that Drew Petzing has all of 30 NFL games under his belt as an NFL OC.
Cardinals’ PFF player grades on offense after 13 games:
ARZ Offense Grades | Pro Football Focus (pff.com)
TE Trey McBride —- 86.6
RB James Conner —- 85.7 (Emari Demercado —- 70.8)
QB Kyler Murray —- 79.7
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. —- 77.5
WR Michael Wilson —- 65.1 (Greg Dortch —- 56.8)
LT Paris Johnson Jr. —- 79.7
LG Evan Brown —- 66.7 (Isaiah Adams —- 61.3)
C Hjalte Froholdt —- 73.2
RG Trystan Colon —- 68.4 (Will Hernandez —- 69.3)
RT Jonah Williams —- 67.8 (Kelvin Beachum —- 62.7)
TE Elijah Higgins —- 65.0 (Tip Reiman —- 45.2)
Conclusion —- the players’ grades have rarely been this consistently high across the lineup, especially on the offensive line.
2024 NFL Draft Theory
In my opinion, knowing and understanding the strengths of Drew Petzing’s 12 and 13 personnel heavy offense, had Petzing been given the opportunity to make the Cardinals’ selection at #4, he would have picked TE Brock Bowers or T Joe Alt.
During the pre-draft process, I was banging the drum very heavily for Brock Bowers, not only because he is a perfect 12 and 13 personnel system fit, but his game tapes at Georgia proved that he was the toughest, most dynamic offensive playmaker in the entire draft.
If Drew Petzing were to be able to line up Brock Bowers opposite Trey McBride, it would have been every DC’s ultimate nightmare. In light of the way Kyler has forged a synchronous bond with McBride —-> imagine how immediately easy it would have been for him to forge a synchronous bond with Bowers.
I also warned at the time that based on MHJ’s college games at Ohio St. where he was blanketed in coverage more often than one at first would imagine and where he looked skittish catching passes over the middle, like he did in the Michigan loss, that it was going to take some time for MHJ to assimilate, not only into the NFL, but into an offense that is RB/TE-centric.
I believe very strongly that Michael Bidwill, in an effort to please the fans and subsequently sell tickets, made the call on MHJ. It helped too, obviously, that Kyler was openly pleased about adding MHJ.
But here’s the rub —- whenever Michael Bidwill takes control of the 1st round pick, something he has boasted about when asked what his role is on draft day —- it often puts his GM and/or his coaching staff in a compromising position.
The truth is —- MHJ was not the ideal fit in Drew Petzing’s offense. I said this prior to the draft and I also predicted how much of a distraction MHJ could be in terms of turning the offense away from what it does best —- but moreover, in the potential weekly distraction it could cause from the adamant “Tank for Marv” fans who have expected him to be the “generational talent” they believe he is.
Essentially, Drew Petzing was told to be a good soldier and was asked to try to turn MHJ into a superstar as soon as possible.
Monti, who was also asked to be a good soldier, was put in the precarious position of having to go against his vow to align the coaches with players who best fit their systems and coaching priorities.
This is why, in my opinion, Monti tried to make it up to Drew Petzing by giving him the first 3 of the team’s 4 third-round picks, which seemed more than a little odd at the time seeing as to that point in the draft, Monti had not taken an edge rusher.
Trey Benson, Isaiah Adams and Tip Reiman are classic “pet players” for Petzing and his style of offense. And I would say that all three of the players have already to an auspicious degree shown us the reasons why they are nifty fits.
And seeing how these three players are the type of players Drew Petzing covets, there is no question that Monti and JG want Drew Petzing to keep doing his thing.
Conclusion —- there is no way that Michael Bidwill, Monti Ossenfort, Dave Sears and Jonathan Gannon are going to let go of —- or would even consider —- demoting Drew Petzing. Up until the bye week, Kyler Murray put forth his best four consecutive-win performances since his early season hay days of 2021. At the same time, Drew Petzing had been drawing raves from NFL pundits around the country and was being touted as a popular head coaching candidate sleeper.
But, wait, who is most to blame for the conservative play calling?
What we fans do not have a clear picture of, is how many times Kyler audibles out of his coach’s play calls. We cannot automatically assume that every play is the exact play that Drew Petzing called and/or whether the plays were executed as designed by the OC.
For example, it could well be that Kyler audibled into the draw play that Emari Demercado ran for a stunning 53-yard TD run versus the Bears with 22 seconds left in the 1st half. If so, one could imagine why Kyler might audible into some of the other draws that have been handed off to Emari. Of course, the call looks brilliant when it works but looks foolish when it doesn’t.
What we do know in the passing game is how often on 3rd downs Kyler throws dump off passes short of the sticks. This has been a nagging pattern in Kyler’s game for the last 3 years. No OC in the NFL makes a 3rd down call to pass the ball under the chains unless it is to a player who has a clear, unobstructed path to the sticks.
Conclusion —- the fact that Kyler has been performing this way under two different play callers would suggest that it is more his issue than the OC’s. There are times when his decision-making on audibles and 3rd-down throws can make his OC look brilliant or foolish. Kliff’s 3rd down conversion percentage with rookie Jayden Daniels is 6th in the NFL at 44%. That’s 4% higher than the Cardinals’. And get this —- Kliff’s 4th down conversion percentage this year with a rookie QB is tied for 1st in the NFL with Josh Allen and the Bills at 86.7%. The Cardinals’ 4th down percentage is 30th at 38.5%. Sure could help if the Cardinals would ever make consistent use of a slot WR, who tend to be QB’s go-to guys on 3rd downs in this day and age.
How coachable is Kyler Murray?
As we all know, Kyler has some limitations —- for example, in his 6 years in Arizona, has Kyler ever had a high production chemistry with a proto-typical slot WR? Christian Kirk insisted that he wanted to be used strictly on corner, cross corner, out and go routes. He did not want to be thrown to over the middle on digs and quick slants. This year Greg Dortch has turned into Casper the Friendly Ghost.
How many teams in today’s NFL ignore the slot WR the way the Cardinals have since Kyler Murray was drafted?
The reality is that today’s top receivers in the NFL are almost entirely slot WRs.
How coachable is Kyler Murray? Kyler’s own words would suggest that he, the son of a highly reputable QB coach, believes he has most, if not all, of the answers. Kyler had the audacity to tell the New York Times that he doesn’t really need to study game tapes because he has the uncanny ability “to see things before they happen.”
Even more audacious was Kyler’s scapegoating of Kliff Kingsbury a week before the 2024 season by fully embracing the excuses that his feverish stans have been screaming —-> that he had to try to win games all on his own, mostly by running around and making plays. So then by that logic, Kyler won 9 games in 2021 all by himself in a lineup comprised of RB James Conner, WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Christian Kirk, T D.J. Humphries, G Justin Pugh, C Rodney Hudson and TE Zach Ertz.
What an egregious diss on his teammates this is on Kyler’s part.
Well, Kyler’s words have a way of coming back to haunt him, don’t they?
Since going out of his way to confirm to Cardinals’ Nation that in the past he had to try to win all on his own, Kyler and the Cardinals got badly outplayed and outclassed at home by rookie QB Jayden Daniels and his OC Kliff Kingsbury to the tune of 42-14.
And most recently in their last game, the Commanders dropped 42 points on the Titans which is merely 4 points shy of the Cardinals’ 46 total points they have scored in their three post-bye losses.
If you are going to say well the Titans suck, then you probably should know that they are the #2 defense in the NFL in yards allowed per game at 291.8 (and that's their average even after the Commanders amassed 462 yards and 29 first downs in that game at 6.0 yards per play).
The Seahawks and Vikings defenses are at #17 and #18 in yards allowed per game.
Regardless, Kyler has consistently lauded Drew Petzing’s offensive acumen to the point of calling him “a genius.” Kyler has maintained his belief in the offense, the scheme, his fit and his surrounding talent.
Conclusion —- Kyler has thrown 5 interceptions in the last three games. Some of those interceptions are not what one would ever expect from a $230.5M QB playing in his 6th year whose ultimate goal, in his words, is “to win multiple Super Bowls in Arizona.”. Yet, some Cardinals’ fans will always believe Kyler’s struggles are directly related to poor coaching or schemes.
There is no doubt that Kyler brings something extra special to an offense because of his electric feet —- and there is no doubt that in some games like the Jets game this year, Kyler can play at a supreme level —- but he also brings some glaring limitations that make it difficult for his coaches to compensate for.
His deep passing ability, once near the top of all NFL QBs back in the early games of 2021 has essentially “vanished like a fart in the wind” (S. King - Shawshank) —- and as for his electric feet —- Kyler does not appear to be as keen as he once was to run the ball 5+ times a game, which as the data has consistently proven, gives the Cardinals a better chance to win. How about the time last Sunday where Kyler had a good chance to escape the Seahawks’ pressure and elected to crumble to the grass instead.
Kyler has shown throughout his six years that he can get thoroughly intimidated by some defenses to the point where at the sign of pressure, he panics, like he did against the Seahawks twice and in the second half versus the Vikings.
One of my favorite Cardinals’ fans on X, arrived this week at this conclusion :
I love Kyler Murray. He is MY Quarterback.
BUT…
-We have no meaningful wins in 6 years
-He underperforms in big moments
-There is no higher ceiling
-There is no more untapped potential
-This is who he is
You can build a better team around him, but he isn’t carrying you
— Joanna Cards Fan (@cardsfanjoanna) December 10, 2024
Conversely, two weeks ago Sam Darnold took a beating in the first half from relentless Cardinals’ blitzers. He was sacked 5 times. Yet, Darnold never flinched. And ultimately, he kept hanging tough in the pocket and found a way in the 2nd half to take over the ballgame.
Would you blame Drew Petzing, who espouses smashmouth football, if he has wondered what his offense could accomplish with stronger, less intimidated pocket QB like Sam Darnold?
In the YouTube comments section in this week’s Red Rain Podcast one Cardinals’ fan wrote:
@DerrikJonS
1 day ago
Same Ol Cards. If I were to run this team in 2025, I would trade KM to the Raiders and even throw in a 5th rd pick to them. Fire Monti and the current joke HC, Make Dave Sears the GM, hire Ben Johnson as HC then maybe a Wink Martindale as DC. Sign Sam Darnold in free agency as QB and build up this Defense and Offense line.
ROTB Poll:
Poll
Would you endorse a Cardinals’ switch next season to Dave Sears as GM, Ben Johnson as HC, Wink Martindale as DC and Sam Darnold as QB?
0%
Yes
(0 votes)
0%
No
(0 votes)
0%
Other
(0 votes)
0 votes total Vote Now
Do I think that the Cardinals would have a stronger chance to compete for a Super Bowl with GM Sears, HC Johnson, DC Martindale and QB Darnold?
For me that feels like a rhetorical question. But it also feels like another superfluous pipe dream.
Conclusion —- Michael Bidwill is more apt to give Monti and JG his typical premature, higher-salaried contract extensions than he is to making aggressive changes at this point. While ardently hope that this time Michael Bidwill waits longer to make longer-term commitments, to be fair, Monti Ossenfort, Jonathan Gannon, Drew Petzing, Nick Rallis and Kyler Murray have done enough to warrant year 3. The 4-game winning streak was sufficient enough proof.
Drew Petzing: Stay or Go?
Drew Petzing’s offense is absolutely rolling and it’s because he is merging the run and pass into seamless effect.
Watch how @ThinkingFtball explains the use of counter & misdirection plays opening up the run game AND pass game harmoniously.
Keep cooking Drew! pic.twitter.com/W8VZPAanzJ
— Maserati Marv ️ (fan) (@MHJera_) November 18, 2024
Conclusion —- Drew Petzing is not going anywhere, nor should he, unless he gets hired as a head coach.
Special thanks to:
@BirdmanofAZ
@DerrikJonS
@cardsfanjoanna
@MHJera_