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Trump has also made very clear from long before he entered national politics that he strongly opposes the stationing of U.S. forces abroad in affluent allied countries like South Korea and Germany, as this CSIS dataset shows.
While we cannot predict his policies on any specific issue, we can surmise as to his motives. The graphic below shows two metrics by which Trump may measure his support for NATO and Indo-Pacific allies and partners based on his first term in office and his campaign statements. In Trump’s mind, the “Safe Zone” represents those allies and partners that (1) do not have a trade surplus with the United States and (2) spend more than 3 percent of GDP on defense. These allies will not draw Trump’s ire. However, those allies and partners in the “Danger Zone” do not spend enough on defense (i.e., less than 3 percent of GDP) and “cheat” the United States on trade (i.e., experience trade surpluses). These leaders and countries will be very much in Trump’s crosshairs.
The graphic below visualizes data for all NATO and Indo-Pacific allies and partners. It identifies where each government measures in terms of trade and defense spending.
Victor Cha is president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Headline image: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
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