South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is facing immense domestic and international backlash after briefly declaring martial law last week, including recent attempts from the South Korean police to try to raid his office. Since the declaration, many have called for his resignation and his main opposition, the Democratic Party, motioned to impeach him. Despite this motion having failed, Yoon’s approval ratings have dropped to an all-time low. This comes at a time when the president has had low approval ratings due to his involvement in several controversies before the declaration, ranging from allegations of accepting gifts and manipulating stocks to allegations over the interference in the investigation of the death of a marine and more. AGallup Korea survey conducted December 3-5, 2024, finds that only 16 percent of South Koreans approve of the president’s job. Among those polled immediately after the incident (December 4-5), this number drops by 3 points to a total of 13 percent, an all-time low for Yoon.
The sudden declaration of martial law shocked the international community, with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken saying that Washington was unaware of Yoon’s plan ahead of time. The incident highlighted concerns over the harms Yoon’s actions could cause to South Korea’s reputation, particularly since the security cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea heavily relies on Seoul in order to thwart China, North Korea, and Russia.
As the martial law declaration provoked fear about the future of South Korea’s democracy, the US decision to not condemn the move and welcome its rescission has sparked reflection onhow the United States should respond to instability in South Korea. In a YouGov poll of US adults conducted December 4, 2024, answers as to how Washington should have responded to the martial law decision remained split: while a plurality (38%) say the United States should have remained neutral, one in five US adults (21%) say the it should have opposed the declaration of martial law and 5 percent say the country should have supported it. However, a substantial share (36%) say they are not sure.
When looking at responses by political affiliation, more Republicans and Independents (42% and 41%, respectively) say the United States should have remained neutral than Democrats (30%). On the other hand, a third of Democrats (30%) say Washington should have opposed the declaration, while only 15 percent of Republicans and 18 percent of Independents say the same. Overall, few respondents from each political affiliation (7% of Republicans, 7% of Democrats, and 3% of Independents) say that the United States should have supported the declaration of martial law.
These findings suggest that, across party lines, the public is wary about supporting such a move yet split over whether the US should publicly object to such an action from an important strategic ally. Results from the 2024 Chicago Council Survey of US adults conducted June 21-July 1, 2024, found that seven in 10 Americans (69%) and majorities across party lines (73% of Democrats, 68% of Independents, and 67% of Republicans) say the US security relationship with South Korea does more to strengthen US national security than weaken it. Looking forward, South Korea may have to reconcile how Yoon’s actions have shaken public confidence in South Korea among of one of its largest allies. The declaration may, in fact, bolster support for a decreased commitment to South Korea by the United States.
According to the 2022 Chicago Council Survey, conducted July 15-August 1, 2022, the majority of US adults polled across party lines say that it is somewhat or very important that US allies work the United States to limit the influence of China (83% Democrats, 90% Republicans, and 85% Independents) and Russia (92% Democrats, 87% Republicans, and 81% Independents). Given that the US alliance with Seoul is in part an effort to deter these two countries, Washington must take into consideration how it ought to respond to Yoon’s actions while ensuring that the erosion of Yoon's reputation is minimized.
Likewise, Yoon’s actions may also have consequences for South Korea’s democratic character in the United States: the same 2022 Chicago Council survey finds that the majority of Americans (60%) say that democracy is the best form of government for all countries. Majorities of Americans across party lines agree with this, with Democrats (69%) being more likely than Republicans (59%) and Independents (53%).
Yoon’s decision also sparked concerns about whether similar actions could happen in the United States. When asked in another YouGov poll conducted December 4, 2024, one third of US adult respondents (34%) said they believe it is somewhat or very likely that a US president declares martial law in the next 20 years, but the plurality (37%) say it is somewhat or very unlikely, and one third (29%) are unsure. Among parties, the plurality of Democrats (46%) say it is somewhat or very likely to happen, while the plurality of Republicans (50%) and Independents (35%) say it is somewhat or very unlikely to happen. As the United States faces security-related consequences from Yoon’s decision, the country may also have to reconcile if this may have consequences for the stability of democracy at home, for democratic backsliding in the United States and democracies worldwide increases the risk of a similar authoritarian turn.
However, the swift public backlash and efforts to arrest Yoon and his ex-defense minister have provided optimism in the public’s role to uphold democracy. Even though Yoon’s impeachment failed, he will now have to face a public more discontent with him than ever before. Meanwhile, the embattled South Korean president will also need to contend with an incoming US president with a wildly different foreign policy, which will affect South Korea’s bilateral relationship with the United States and trilateral security relations between the two and Japan. These ongoing developments have put both the stability of democracy and the security of South Korea in doubt, with the futures of both unclear.