saturdaydownsouth.com

Betting Stuff: Opening thoughts on 10 opening lines for bowl season

Betting Stuff: Opening thoughts on 10 opening lines for bowl season - Saturday Down South

Home

College Football

Ad Disclosure

Shane Beamer runs onto the field with his team.

The college football postseason finds itself in a precarious spot as the 12-team College Football Playoff gets underway. The non-CFP bowl slate is… something. The best teams playing in non-CFP bowl games are likely going to be disappointed they didn’t make the CFP, hit hard by NFL-bound players opting out, and dealing with the transfer portal. That transfer season gets underway while teams are still playing games is an absurdity.

The bowl ecosystem is fighting for its life a little bit. With so much uncertainty about how teams will look once they take the field, fans have fewer and fewer reasons to travel.

I’m very curious what we’ll see this postseason. The regular season was marked by parity and volatility. Does that continue?

Here’s what I’m paying attention to with the non-CFP bowl slate. You can find my Opening Thoughts column on the first round of the CFP here.

2024 regular season record: 68-56-1

(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)

No. 25 Memphis vs. West Virginia (Frisco Bowl)

Memphis -3 | Total: 56.5

On one side, we have a Memphis team that closed the season with wins in 7 of its final 8 games, including a 34-24 upset at Tulane. Quarterback Seth Henigan, a starter for the Tigers since he stepped on campus as a freshman, will be playing his final game for the school.

On the other side, we have a West Virginia team that went 3-4 down the stretch, got spotty quarterback play from Garrett Greene, gave up a ton of points, and fired its head coach. Offensive coordinator Chad Scott is serving as the interim coach through the bowl game while WVU searches for Neal Brown’s replacement.

I’m focusing on the matchup between the West Virginia defense and the Memphis offense. I believe the Tigers have an advantage when they hold the football, and the tendency for Greene to be careless (21 sacks, 11 interceptions) might give the Tigers an edge in field position as well.

I don’t question the motivation for Memphis. Henigan will be playing in a stadium that sits about 20 miles away from where he played his high school ball. It’s a nice bookend. So long as the Memphis offense doesn’t get hit hard by opt-outs, I like them to score points on this inviting WVU defense.

Judging by opponent-adjusted EPA per play, West Virginia has the sixth-worst defense in the nation. The Mountaineers are also outside the top 100 in success rate allowed and yards per play allowed. Specifically, the secondary is awful. Per Game on Paper, WVU ranks 133rd out of 134 teams in EPA per dropback faced. They’ve allowed the 10th-highest quarterback rating to opposing passers of any FBS team this season and have defended the sixth-fewest passes.

This was an objectively atrocious defense. Sometimes with a coaching change, you see a spark. Maybe that happens with the offense rallying around its guy getting the interim tag, but I don’t see the defense making some miraculous stand. They’re giving up 31 points a game.

Memphis has a top-20 scoring offense (35.2 PPG), a run game that ranks 21st in EPA per attempt, and a senior quarterback with 13,984 career passing yards.

Bet Memphis team total over 27.5 points (-145 via bet365)

Tulane vs. Florida (Gasparilla Bowl)

Florida -12 | Total: 50.5

I’m looking at this game as a showcase event for Florida. Billy Napier closed the year on a positive note, both on the field and on the recruiting trail. The vibes are positive. The quarterback of the future showed very clearly he can help Florida accomplish things in the present. Florida closed the year with 3 straight wins to make a bowl game and now the Gators won’t have to leave their home state to play in it.

This is the kind of opportunity that springboards a good team into a great season. Tulane will be down to its backup quarterback after Darian Mensah opted for the transfer portal when it opened earlier this week.

And that was a curious decision. It came in conjunction with coach Jon Sumrall — heavily speculated to be in the running for just about every job opening on the market — announcing that he intends to remain with the program moving forward.

Sumrall’s return should help stave off any significant portal defections. The keyword, though, is should. Mensah is still looking elsewhere.

I’m anxious to see what Montrell Johnson decides to do, but that might not affect the bottom line too much. Florida was without Johnson for stretches in the regular season and cultivated backfield depth.

Elijhah Badger and Cam Jackson have said they’re playing in the game. Caleb Banks has announced he is coming back. I get the sense Florida is looking forward to this game. One thing that was clear down the stretch of the season was that Napier still very much had favor in the locker room; his team fought its tail off for him.

Tulane has been good about limiting the explosive pass plays this season, and DJ Lagway desperately wants to push the ball downfield. Tulane has also been exceptional when putting the ball in the air itself. How much of that changes in the absence of Mensah? Remember, Tulane brought in perennial backup Ty Thompson from Oregon this offseason and then Mensah, to the surprise of many, beat him out to open the year as the starter.

Thompson has been in the college game for a while, but he doesn’t have much in-game experience. Florida has SEC size and athleticism, the likes of which Tulane has not seen all year. And the Green Wave have not done well when they’ve stepped up in class.

Bet Florida -12 (-110 via ESPN Bet)

Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt (Birmingham Bowl)

Georgia Tech -2.5 | Total: 51.5

I get one more chance to play Vandy as an underdog this season and you best believe I’m taking it. Diego Pavia has turned into a legend in Nashville, and this will be the swan song. The Commodores are 8-4 against the spread this season, including 7-2 as an underdog. The 2 losses came during the 3-game outright losing streak to close the season, but they were also against 1 Playoff team and another team that probably should have been in the Playoff. As Vanderbilt ran out of steam to close out the year, Pavia played hurt. With almost a month in between their last regular-season game and their bowl game, the Dores should be plenty fresh to face the Ramblin’ Wreck. Between two teams that want to control the pace of play, this could be a grind-it-out game. With a couple of key departures to the transfer portal already from Georgia Tech’s offense, Vanderbilt becomes an easy play. I’d even consider a moneyline bet here.

Bet Vanderbilt +2.5 (-105 via DraftKings)

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas (Liberty Bowl)

Arkansas -2.5 | Total: 60.5

This should probably be called the Attrition Bowl. Texas Tech is replacing both of its coordinators. Star running back Tahj Brooks has a decision to make regarding whether he’ll opt out to prepare for the NFL. (Given this is his last game as a Red Raider, though, maybe he opts to play.) At one point on Tuesday, Arkansas led all power conference teams in transfer portal departures. The list includes both guards, tight end Luke Hasz, and wideout Isaiah Sategna. Leading receiver Andrew Armstrong has also already opted out of the bowl game and declared for the draft. With so much uncertainty surrounding who is doing what and where, 60 points is too many for this game considering the circumstances.

Bet under 60.5 points (-105 via ESPN Bet)

No. 21 Syracuse vs. Washington State (Holiday Bowl)

Syracuse -6.5 | Total: 61.5

The potential is there for an elite quarterback matchup, but only the potential. Wazzu quarterback John Mateer has a massive decision to make that could impact more than just the teams playing in this bowl game. With Oklahoma hiring WSU coordinator Ben Arbuckle away from the Palouse and Jackson Arnold hitting the transfer portal, OU has a need at quarterback and an attractive pitch to make to Mateer.

But, if it’s not Oklahoma, Mateer would still command a hefty sum in the portal from just about every quarterback-needy team. The 6-foot-1 sophomore burst onto the scene this season as Wazzu shot out of a cannon to open the year. The Cougs closed with 3 straight defeats after an 8-1 start, but Mateer finished with 3,139 passing yards, 826 rushing yards, and 44 total touchdowns. He currently ranks seventh among qualified FBS quarterbacks in EPA, per ESPN.

Washington State and Syracuse both have top-20 marks in opponent-adjusted EPA per play this season. Against Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord (second in EPA), the potential for a high-flying, run-it-up game is there.

Does Mateer hit the portal? Or does he stay behind at Wazzu?

Washington State’s defense was poor this season, and it has already lost a starting cornerback, a starting defensive tackle, and its starting running back to the transfer portal. Fran Brown doesn’t expect any Syracuse opt-outs, and I’m wagering on the belief that Mateer gets an offer too good to pass up from somewhere else.

The Orange closed out their season with 3 consecutive wins and a program-defining victory over Miami. There’s real juice here. Back the side that’s trending up.

Bet Syracuse -6 (-112 via DraftKings)

Texas A&M vs. USC (Las Vegas Bowl)

Texas A&M -2.5 | Total: 51.5

Both of these programs have seen high-profile quarterbacks hit the transfer portal, but neither player was starting by season’s end anyway. Texas A&M has been hit particularly hard by the transfer portal, thinning out a roster that was already a little banged up to begin with.

Defensive ends Shemar Stewart and Nic Scourton have also already declared for the NFL Draft. It’s not clear if they’ll play in the bowl game, but both are expected to be Day 1 picks so there’s clearly a conversation to be had there.

A&M generated some juice with its mid-game move from Conner Weigman to Marcel Reed in the comeback victory over LSU, but it struggled to maintain that momentum over the final 4 weeks. The Aggies lost their final 3 conference games, including an overtime loss at Auburn and a 17-7 home defeat to Texas.

The Texas game was a microcosm of the Reed-led A&M offense this season. Texas tried repeatedly to give the game to A&M. The Aggies couldn’t take it. They turned it over on downs inside the Texas 10 twice. Seven of the Aggies 9 possessions crossed midfield and they generated 0 points from the offense.

USC won’t pose the same defensive problems that Texas did, but quarterback Jayden Maiava has had bright moments since taking over as the starting quarterback. A&M has leaned on its ability to generate havoc defensively, but it has been susceptible to the big play and if those ends are unavailable, USC will be able to work around its starting right tackle hitting the portal.

Bet USC +3.5 (-122 via FanDuel)

No. 18 Iowa State vs. No. 13 Miami (Pop-Tarts Bowl)

Miami -3.5 | Total: 54.5

This is the line to jump on before Miami gets hit with the bigger opt-outs. Damien Martinez and Ward both say they will, but there’s still time for that to change. There’s no reason for Ward in particular to play in this game.

More than anything, I’m anxious to see where the motivation comes from. Miami was 9-0 and in the hunt for a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. A month later, the Hurricanes are playing in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. No ACC title game. No Playoff. Nothing. And at this point in the year, what reason has Miami given us to trust it?

The Hurricanes flirted with danger for weeks before face-planting at Georgia Tech. They smacked an awful Wake Forest team and then lost by 4 at Syracuse to get shut out of the conference title game. The secondary has gotten torched repeatedly, and that’s a major area of concern against Rocco Becht and Iowa State.

ISU was disappointing in the Big 12 title game, but it still has a chance to improve on the best season in program history. Becht pilots an offense that ranks 25th in yards per dropback and can break off chunk plays in bunches. Miami’s defense is 41st nationally in EPA per dropback faced and ranks in the 11th percentile for explosive play percentage allowed.

I’m much less concerned about the Cyclones’ mental makeup than I am Miami’s. Mario Cristobal’s history probably plays a factor in that. Miami also closed out the year 3-5 ATS. I think Iowa State can win this outright, so getting them as a dog above the key number of 3 is the move for me so long as Ward remains committed to the game.

Bet Iowa State +3.5 (-108 via DraftKings)

No. 11 Alabama vs. Michigan (ReliaQuest Bowl)

Alabama -10 | Total: 43.5

On paper, this is no contest. Alabama has a combustible offense and Michigan has been merely average on defense while being a little too inviting to the big play in the pass game. Michigan doesn’t have an offense to play catch-up and Alabama has the tools to race out to an early lead.

Several things are working against the Crimson Tide here. The first — and the most concerning — is that Alabama is likely incredibly disappointed to be playing in the ReliaQuest Bowl when it went into Selection Sunday feeling like it belonged in the College Football Playoff. This isn’t like Miami, where the Hurricanes knew they were out of the field when they lost to Syracuse. Alabama was the first team out and had to wait on its hands to learn that. Opt-outs could be an issue. A handful of players have already hit the transfer portal.

The other issue to be aware of is that Alabama has struggled to sustain its level of play when on the road this season. Focus has waned. The operation has generally been less efficient. Alabama is 7-0 at home with an average of 41 points a game. Alabama is 2-3 away from home while the scoring drops to 28 points a game. They’re a full yard per play worse on offense when playing away from home and half a yard per play worse on defense.

How does Michigan look? It’s hard to take much away from the Ohio State game because of how much that one game means to both programs. Is it a blip? Or does it give the Wolverines confidence to close the year? Mason Graham has already opted out of the bowl game, Will Johnson seems unlikely to play, and there are a few others who might focus on the NFL instead.

Graham and Johnson are key. The Wolverines have future NFL players on their defense and if more chose to sit out, it might not matter how dazed Alabama is to start the game. The Crimson Tide have been all-or-nothing on offense to a significant degree all season, so much so, that a slow start isn’t crippling. And certainly not against this Michigan offense. Alabama is going to score points so long as Jalen Milroe and Ryan Williams are on the field.

“I’m not saying there won’t be one [opt-out], but I feel like right now, we’re in a place where most of those guys are planning on playing,” Kalen DeBoer said after the bowl announcement. “I don’t care what round they’re planning on going in. We’ll see. That’s my early understanding, having talked with a few guys.”

I’ll take DeBoer’s word for it for now. Milroe still has questions to answer regarding his NFL future and a strong bowl performance here would be a necessary data point in his favor.

Bet Alabama -10 (-110 via ESPN Bet)

No. 15 South Carolina vs. No. 20 Illinois (Citrus Bowl)

South Carolina -10.5 | Total: 47.5

Illinois wasn’t in the Playoff picture and South Carolina knew after the penultimate rankings came out that it wasn’t going to be in the Playoff either. The Citrus Bowl chose South Carolina over Alabama, and I expect Shane Beamer will have his guys ready to go in a show of force. South Carolina hasn’t won 10 games since 2013. Illinois hasn’t won 10 games since 2001. Both are sitting on 9 wins. I think we get the best of both.

Pat Bryant won’t play in the bowl for Illinois, and that’s a big blow, but coach Bret Bielema doesn’t seem to anticipate any other opt-outs. Beamer said he’s not expecting many for South Carolina.

“There were some examples last season of teams that dealt with disappointment and handled it the right way and handled it the wrong way. We talked about being the team that handles it the right way,” Beamer told reporters after the bowl announcement.

South Carolina closed out the regular season with 6 straight victories. It beat Texas A&M, Missouri, and Playoff-bound Clemson during that run. The Gamecocks also took Alabama to the wire on the road. We know what to expect from the Gamecocks, who rank 35th nationally in net opponent-adjusted EPA per play.

Illinois is less of a known. The Illini are 70th in net adjusted EPA per play, and they’ve been poor against top competition this season. Illinois has played 4 teams that currently rank in the top 35 in SP+; it is 1-3 in those games.

Against Penn State, Michigan, Oregon, and Minnesota — the aforementioned top-35 opponents — Illinois averaged just 4.7 yards per play and a ghastly 20.9 yards per point. In all 3 games against Penn State, Michigan, and Oregon, the Illini posted a negative EPA per play and a single-digit explosive play rate, per Game on Paper.

The defense has struggled against the run all year and South Carolina will present one of the more physical units they’ve seen.

So long as the top guys play on defense, South Carolina (17th in adjusted EPA per play) should be able to box this Illini offense in. The ends are fantastic, there’s an NFL talent in the middle of the defensive line, and safety Nick Emmanwori is one of the best in the country.

It’s a big number, but similar teams have beaten Illinois by bigger numbers this year.

Bet South Carolina -10.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

Duke vs. No. 14 Ole Miss (Gator Bowl)

Ole Miss -13.5 | Total: 53.5

Jaxson Dart says he’s playing. Who else is joining him? Tailback Henry Parrish and wideout Tre Harris ended the year injured. Wideout Juice Wells has a decision to make regarding his future. All of the important front-7 guys have NFL prospects.

At full strength, Ole Miss shuts down the best offenses. Duke is far from a good offense. The Blue Devils closed the regular season 112th nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. The run game was atrocious all year, so they leaned on Maalik Murphy in the pass game and posted a 44/56 split between run plays and pass plays.

Murphy has entered the transfer portal, leaving Duke with Henry Belin IV, who threw 1 pass all year. The 6-foot-3 passer has 36 career pass attempts across 3 years with the Blue Devils. In a spot start last season against NC State, Belin completed 4 of 12 passes for 107 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception.

Duke was protective of him that day. But the Blue Devils simply don’t have the run game this year to play a ground-and-pound kind of game. They’ve been held under 100 total rushing yards in 5 consecutive games and in 8 of their 12 total games this season. Breaking through against Ole Miss — fifth nationally in rushing success rate allowed — seems unlikely unless the front 7 is decimated by opt-outs.

Points will be at a premium in a game that could be ugly.

Bet under 53.5 total points (-115 via ESPN Bet)

Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.