Tokayev-Trump Phone Call Opens New Page in Kazakhstan-U.S. Relations, Inclusive of Trade
On Dec. 5, President-elect Donald J. Trump and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev conducted their first phone call since the U.S. elections.
Tokayev congratulated Trump on the election results, and the two agreed to maintain regular contact further to trade relations, investment, and nuclear non-proliferation.
In the face of a heightened degree of challenge to the West, particularly to the U.S., Kazakhstan can play a key role as a partner to America in the heart of Eurasia, a strategically vital region between neighboring China and Russia and near Iran and Afghanistan.
Kazakhstan is also economically attractive as a principal oil exporter, a source of critical minerals, and the largest uranium producer in the world.
Fostering a relationship with Astana is important in the global great power competition, as Kazakhstan lies between two of America’s principal rivals.
This contest extends around the globe, ranging from military power to geopolitics to economics. Beijing and Moscow exert influence in all of these sectors in Central Asia. Russia’s historical relationship provides a basis for cooperation, as the Eurasian C5 (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) only became independent countries with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Meanwhile, China’s massive investment continues to expand its presence.
These factors highlight the need for the United States to heighten its own engagement with willing states in the region in the near term, especially with Kazakhstan, which was also the first C5 country Beijing focused on when China began building up its level of influence and involvement in the area.
Since its independence from the USSR, Kazakhstan has pursued a "multi-vector" foreign policy, seeking to maintain good relations with both Russia and China but also reaching out to Europe and the United States.
For example, during the Biden administration, responding to growing calls for cooperation, Kazakhstan complied with American demands to curb the trade in dual-use goods with Russia, its biggest trading partner.
While Biden met Central Asian leaders at the C5+1 summit in September 2023 and the U.S. participated in the B5 +1 business summit of the five Central Asian countries in Almaty earlier this year, these events produced few substantial results.
In 2023, for example, U.S. trade with Kazakhstan was a meager $3.3 billion, whereas Russia and China’s trade was approximately $26 billion and $31.5 billion, respectively.
Economic ties are an excellent pathway to closer political relations, yet under the Biden Administration,opportunities to develop stronger business relationships with Kazakhstan were ignored.
The Development Finance Corporation has not allocated funding to a new project in Kazakhstan since a 2022 commitment of merely $2 million for technical assistance.
The Export-Import Bank of the United Statesis providing export financing to only one project for the export of diesel engines for locomotives built by Wabtec in Astana.
Biden appeared to understand the value offered by Central Asia in his September 2023 statements encouraging the development of the Middle Corridor, a transportation web of multiple roads, railroads, ports, and fiber optic cables connecting China and Europe while avoiding Russia.
However, the actions by the various agencies under his administration did not reflect this sentiment, providing little support to American companies for getting involved with any of the corridor’s associated projects.
Unsurprisingly, again, China is stepping in more firmly where the U.S. has not.
In addition, the Biden administration failed to lift the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, a measure originally intended to deny normal trade relations (NTR) to non-market economies.
The amendment was intended to reverse Soviet emigration restrictions that targeted and penalized people seeking to leave the USSR, especially Jews. The time for sunsetting that Amendment has long passed.
Prominent senators, including Steve Daines, R-Montana, Chris Murphy, D-Conn., and Todd Young, R-Ind., along with 35 GOP members, including the outgoing chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee Michael McCaul, R-Texas, and nine Democratic House Members (44 total, 10% of the House), have advocated for the repeal of the Jackson-Vanik amendment to enable the United States to establish Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with Kazakhstan.
In the energy sector, Kazakhstan’s position extends beyond its historical role as a supplier of hydrocarbons to secure agreements for projects capitalizing on its high potential for wind and solar energy.
After holding a historic referendum on whether to begin using nuclear energy, Kazakhstan will begin building its first nuclear reactor using its uranium supply.
American companies can and should invest in and provide expertise to bolster the infrastructure supporting the energy industry and the digital and physical infrastructure enabling the Middle Corridor.
American engagement could bring profits and U.S. jobs, improve economic relations, and boost efforts to connect Central Asia to global markets.
The U.S. should also emphasize economic cooperation in valuable areas with high growth potential in Kazakhstan, such as manufacturing, high-tech, and agriculture.
American engagement can also boost capacity in sectors like health and education, allowing Kazakhstan to develop its workforce independent of Chinese tutelage.
No American President or Vice President has visited Central Asia since it gained independence from the Soviet Union almost 35 years ago.
Meanwhile, Russia and China are chairing regular meetings with all of its leaders and working to control the region’s resources.
It's in the U.S. strategic and economic interest not to continue losing opportunities to engage with a willing partner like Kazakhstan.
Expanding American exports, trade, and investment in new, promising markets, especially those that can fuel the energy transition to zero-emission technologies and nuclear renaissance, is essential.
As the Trump administration formulates its foreign policy priorities, it is critical to prioritize Kazakhstan and Central Asia to ensure the country and region do not fall firmly into the orbit of China and Russia. Trump should not repeat Biden’s mistakes.
Ivan Sascha Sheehan is a professor of Public and International affairs and the associate dean of the College of Public Affairs at the University of Baltimore. Opinions expressed are his own. Follow him on X @ProfSheehan
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