The 11-2 Minnesota Vikings’ playoff path is getting increasingly clear with each passing week. Undoubtedly, the addition of potential MVP candidate Sam Darnold is a big part of the momentum and positive play.
Ahead of last Sunday’s win over the Atlanta Falcons, there was talk that the Vikings needed to consider paying Darnold for the future and give him the money he deserves. However, we must consider whether or not we can expect Darnold to repeat this level of play in the long term — he’s still, after all, the guy who confessed to seeing “ghosts” in his sophomore season.
Darnold is coming off a career day where he went 22 of 28 for 347 yards, five touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a passer rating of 157.9 — plus seven rushing yards on four attempts. He made his case for both the contract and the MVP consideration. Not to mention, it was the first time in his career he’s started 13-straight NFL games. But do these numbers seem sustainable, based on his past play?
This week’s Monday night game against the Chicago Bears will be his 14th game of the season, a mark he hasn’t hit since his rookie year in 2018. Darnold played the most games played in his rookie and sophomore seasons, where he started 13 non-consecutive games. In 2018, a foot injury sidelined Darnold in the middle of the season. In 2019, the New York Jets held him out for a few weeks after the season opener due to a bout of mononucleosis.
Given his career trajectory, Darnold joined the Vikings with a lot of uncertainty. People also initially thought he was a temporary placeholder until J.J. McCarthy could take over, a prospect that got kicked further into the future thanks to McCarthy’s preseason knee injury. Therefore, the fact that many fans want Darnold back next season says a lot about his out-performing initial expectations.
Darnold came to a situation that would make any quarterback envious. The Vikings have an offensive line that gives him the most time in the pocket. They also have two receivers who can go for over 100 yards any given Sunday, plus a dual-threat RB and a defense that confuses even the savviest of signal callers. Minnesota has a coaching staff and front office confident in their moves and play calls. Who wouldn’t want to play for one of the most exciting teams in the NFL?
Darnold’s season has been a pleasant surprise. He currently holds career records in rushes (56), passing TDs (28), and passing yards (3,299). He also has a career record in times sacked (40). However, not all those sacks would be considered “bad sacks” (better than getting intercepted). After Week 14, Darnold also leads the league in air yards (2,211) and passes over 20 yards (52).
He also walked into one of the most talented locker rooms in the NFL. That’s not to say that just anyone can step into the position and be an MVP candidate. Still, it helps. Minnesota’s pass catchers have found ways to come back to the ball on bad/batted passes.
Look at Darnold’s first TD against the Falcons. Addison had to come back to the ball because Darnold’s arm was hit as he threw it. These pass catchers know where to be and when to be there to best help their quarterback.
Minnesota’s coaching staff is also a major part of this iteration of Sam Darnold. Kevin O’Connell has put his quarterback in the best position to win. KOC also had Kirk Cousins looking like an MVP in 2022 and 2023 before Cousins tore his Achilles, and O’Connell helped Josh Dobbs win a couple of games immediately after they traded for him.
On the game broadcast, Greg Olsen said, “If you’re starting a franchise and you need a great coach, play-caller, QB whisperer, he [O’Connell] might be the guy.”
Flores is also making it difficult for opposing quarterbacks and giving Darnold and this offense great field position, making it that much easier for a quarterback to succeed.
Oh, and let’s not forget about that much-anticipated quarterback of the future. People expected McCarthy to start at some point this season. Given that he must wait one more season before he gets his chance to play in the NFL, what is the calculus of giving up on a guy no one knows anything about for a veteran who has only had one good season?
Minnesota has the talent, coaching, and cap space to potentially have a prolonged Super Bowl window. If the Vikings hold onto Darnold long term, they might have to make harder decisions about this franchise and where the money goes.
The Vikings must consider many variables before giving Darnold a long-term deal. From the team’s perspective, the best idea might be to franchise-tag Darnold for one more year to see if this production is sustainable. However, Darnold and his representatives will likely be eager to cash in on this momentum with a longer-term, more lucrative deal, wherever that deal may come from.
With the talent, coaching staff, and a franchise QB in waiting, the Vikings should be one of the more exciting storylines for years to come, with or without Darnold. They shouldn’t scrap their overall plans over one player, even if he is the quarterback.