Latest Developments
• Khamenei Labels New Syrian Government as U.S.-Israeli Occupation: Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei characterized the new Syrian government as a U.S. and Israeli “occupation” on December 11, in his first speech since the collapse of the Tehran-aligned Bashar al-Assad regime. Khamenei asserted that areas occupied by anti-Assad forces will be “liberated” by the “courageous Syrian youth.”
• Israel Cautiously Open to New Syrian Leadership: Israel claimed to have destroyed 80 percent of the Syrian Army’s military capabilities in the last several days since the regime’s collapse to prevent the advanced weaponry from being used against Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a speech on December 10 that Jerusalem was open to good relations with the new Syrian regime but would “respond forcefully” should the new government allow Tehran to reestablish its presence in Syria.
• Khamenei Threatens Media and Citizens: Khamenei accused foreign-based Persian media of propagating narratives intended to scare Iranian people and threatened citizens against instilling “panic amongst the public” by spreading analyses that undermine the regime. He added that those caught will be “held accountable for their crimes.”
FDD Expert Response
“As expected, Ayatollah Khamenei’s address pointed fingers at everyone but his regime when seeking to explain the collapse of Assad in Syria. His speech was replete with conspiracy theories about the United States and Israel orchestrating Assad’s ouster rather than taking stock of changing regional and local dynamics. Khamenei could ill afford to admit that his regime just lost its longest-running and sole Arab state partner in the region. Lest we forget, Tehran’s entire regional strategy was predicated on possessing Syria, which is why the Islamic Republic paid such a high cost to bail out the butcher of Damascus for 13 years — and in so doing became the primary loser when the Syrian Army folded, and the Assad regime collapsed in less than two weeks. Not only do the Iranian people not buy Khamenei’s conspiracy-laden theories of the situation but neither do certain regime elites and political voices increasingly found on Telegram, YouTube, and other social media platforms in Iran that have richly debated the issue.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow
“The Islamic Republic’s increasingly ineffective external overreach and its failure to manage its regional influence weakens its grip on power at home. The rapid unraveling of Assad’s regime sparked panic in Tehran, as the regime was incapable of containing such a significant security breach, fueling fears that its own collapse may be imminent.” — Janatan Sayeh, FDD Research Analyst
“Khamenei has shown no remorse for the bloodshed that claimed the lives of over 500,000 Syrians. His continued calls for mobilizing Syrian youth will only lead to further death and suffering. The new Syrian government and people must understand that aligning with Khamenei is a recipe for disaster, and the path forward requires a detachment from such destructive influences.” — Ahmad Sharawi, Research Analyst
FDD Research and Analysis
“‘Everything Assad Got From Iran and Russia Has Been Destroyed’: Israel Ramps Up Attacks on Syria’s Arsenals,” FDD Flash Brief
“‘Serious Concerns’: Israel Strikes Chemical Weapons Sites in Syria After Fall of Assad Regime,” FDD Flash Brief “
‘Temporary Defensive Position’: Israel Takes Control of Golan Buffer Zone,” FDD Flash Brief