In the wake of the Assad regime’s collapse, Israel did the world a major service.
Over the past few days, the Israeli Air Force struck dozens of alleged Syrian chemical weapons sites to prevent these capabilities from falling into the hands of potential terrorists.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar announced on Monday, “We attacked strategic weapons, the residual chemical weapons capabilities, long-range missiles and rockets, so they won’t fall into the hands of radicals.”
The United States, apparently content to let Jerusalem handle this critical military task while it struck Islamic State targets in Syria, must now help finish the job.
With a bit of luck, diplomacy will be sufficient, but the effectiveness of talking likely depends on speaking softly while carrying a big stick.
The priority for Washington is to pressure Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — the power behind Syria’s new governing authority — to let international inspectors in and certify Damascus’ chemical weapons are verifiably eliminated.
HTS is a US- and UN-designated terrorist organization that is an offshoot of al-Qaeda, so more than a little caution is in order.
A US official told Axios on Sunday that Washington believes it has “good fidelity” on Syria’s chemical weapons inventory, and that these capabilities are not currently at risk for acquisition by non-state groups.
Thanks, on the latter, no doubt, goes to Jerusalem.
To the end, the Assad regime possessed a robust stockpile of chemical weapons, along with chemical agents, precursors, and associated research capabilities, munitions, storage, and testing sites.
The US State Department assessed as recently as May 2024 that Syria had an undeclared chemical weapons program, which it used to attack its own people on at least 50 verified occasions between 2012 and 2019. The actual figure is likely far higher.
In 2013, Damascus used the debilitating nerve agent, sarin, to murder 1,400 people in Ghouta.
Threatened with US airstrikes, Syria agreed to join the Chemical Weapons Convention, which would entail surrendering its arsenal.
It pretended to comply, and Washington played along.
But Damascus used sarin again to attack civilians in Khan Shaykhun in 2017, and chlorine gas to kill dozens in Douma in April 2018, among dozens of other instances.
Donald Trump, then in his first term, responded with air strikes both times.
Last month, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) reported that it still could not assert Syria’s chemical weapons program is fully dismantled.
The OPCW affirmed on Monday that it stands ready to help, pledging continued “commitment to clarifying gaps, discrepancies, and inconsistencies in Syrian chemical weapons declaration amidst political transition.”
HTS has publicly indicated that it does not seek to use chemical weapons, has offered to secure regime chemical weapon sites, and has pledged cooperation with international monitors.
If those pledges are not fulfilled, HTS or other jihadists could exploit Assad’s chemical weaponry for their own purposes.
They could use them in attacks, pass them to allies for use abroad, or sell the weapons to other groups.
Washington, which has initiated communications with HTS through intermediaries such as Turkey, must now pressure HTS to follow through on its pledges if Syria is to receive any form of American sanctions relief or assistance.
The HTS-backed government desperately needs both things.
Thirteen years of civil war reduced the economy to rubble. If sanctions remain in place, reconstruction will be extraordinarily difficult.
The United States must also insist that HTS ensure OPCW inspectors remain safe.
The findings of OPCW investigations, as well as new documentation that may come to light, will help ensure Syria’s chemical weapons assets are fully destroyed and dismantled and related evidence can be used to initiate prosecutions against those responsible for using them on Assad’s behalf.
Jerusalem acted swiftly and wisely by destroying Syria’s chemical weapon stocks.
Washington must now ensure HTS lets international inspectors finish the job.
Andrea Stricker is deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program and a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Follow her on X @StrickerNonpro . FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.