Under Nasrallah’s leadership, and later with Russia’s support, Hezbollah had saved Assad from his own people in a raging civil war. He had worked to establish pro-Iran militias in Iraq, build the Houthis in Yemen and, above all, turned his group into one of the most important component of Iran’s anti-Israel strategy. The mightiest of Tehran’s proxies, the group seemingly guaranteed that if Israel tried to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations, its vast arsenal could be unleashed against the Jewish state.
But Israel killed Nasrallah, followed by his presumed successor Hashem Safieddine and then, among other top leaders, Hezbollah’s military commander Ibrahim Akil, who was wanted by the U.S. in connection with the 1983 bombing of its Beirut embassy. Hezbollah’s top echelons were essentially destroyed, along with much of its deadly arsenal.
So, with thousands of Hezbollah fighters injured or dead, the group’s leadership decimated, and Rusia — Assad’s other patron — tangled up in another conflict, unlikely to forcefully come to his aide, rebels in Syria saw their moment.
There was no one left to defend Assad, and the offensive took less than two weeks. The Syrian leader had to flee, and the Alawite regime he inherited — built by his father Hafez Assad more than 50 years ago — quickly crumbled.
Who could have imagined that the Oct. 7 attacks would end in the collapse of the Assad regime, the death of Nasrallah, the defanging (at least for now) of Hezbollah, the collapse of much of Iran’s ability to project power across the Middle East and the humiliation of Russia as its protégé became a political refugee?
Who could have imagined that the Oct. 7 attacks would end in the collapse of the Assad regime, the death of Nasrallah, the defanging (at least for now) of Hezbollah, the collapse of much of Iran’s ability to project power across the Middle East and the humiliation of Russia as its protégé became a political refugee and Moscow’s ability to project power in the region was crippled?
Alas, nobody knows what’s next for the region. Nerves are on edge. It’s too soon for anyone to confidently declare anything like a lasting victory. The aftermath of Hamas’ monumental miscalculation is yet another Middle East lesson in the law of unexpected consequences.