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EU’s climate chief warns of ‘geopolitical winter’

“Even if you reduce everything back home, but you don't manage to take the others along, you still face all the problems that we're currently facing. So diplomacy and applying carrots and sticks and incentivizing others to do more is essential,” Hoekstra said, without specifying the potential sticks.

One stick the EU is about to impose on the world is a carbon border tax, which will charge importers a levy on emissions-intensive goods starting in 2026. The move has drawn fierce criticism from countries such as Brazil, India, China and South Africa, which also sought to discuss the issue at last month’s COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan.

Regarding global climate diplomacy, Hoekstra insisted that the EU would have to “engage” with all major emitters, whether that’s China, the Saudis or the U.S. under Trump.

Donald Trump, a fossil fuel evangelist and climate heretic, is back. | Magali Cohen/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

Noting that the G20 economies are responsible for the vast majority of planet-warming emissions, Hoekstra said it was essential that they boost their climate ambitions ahead of next year’s pivotal COP30 summit in Brazil.

“It makes sense that this whole group — by the way, including the Europeans — does make a step up,” he said. “We're not going to move the needle if we try to offload this problem on other countries who have way below average per-capita emissions. … So everyone needs to play ball.”

At the same time, the former finance and foreign minister also wants to square the circle between the EU’s ambitious climate goals and industry’s needs to stay competitive in the face of Chinese and American competition.

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