Dec. 11, 2024 update:
No significant territorial changes.1 Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +232 square miles. Russia has regained 58% of the territory Ukraine captured in its August incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. Ukraine now controls 197 of the 470 square miles it occupied in mid-September 2024, an area equivalent to the city of San Jose, Calif.
Who’s Gaining and Who’s Losing What?
Territorial Control2
UkraineDonbasKursk
Report Card*
Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory3
Since Feb. 24, 2022:
Russia: +43,352 square miles. 18.6% of Ukraine. Area equivalent to the states of Massachusetts, Maryland and Hawaii combined.
In past month (Nov. 13, 2024–Dec. 10, 2024): Russia gained 232 square miles. Area equivalent to the city of Chicago, Illinois.
In past week: Russia gained 6 square miles.
In past two months:
Ukraine suffered a net loss of 155 square miles.4Area equivalent to the city of Sacramento, California.
Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–November 2024. (Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)
monthly control
Military casualties5
Civilian fatalities6
Military vehicles and equipment7
Russia: 19,490 lost.Tanks and armored vehicles: 11,255.
Aircraft: 286.
Naval vessels: 22.8
Ukraine: 7,256 lost.Tanks and armored vehicles: 3,548.
Aircraft: 173.
Naval vessels: 35.
Citizens displaced9
Russia: 800,000 emigrated for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
Ukraine: 10.2 million displaced Ukrainians, 23% of Ukrainian pre-invasion population of 44 million.Internally displaced: 3.7 million.
International refugees: 6.5 million.
Economic impact10
Russia: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)3.2% GDP forecast for 2024.
Budget deficit: 2.1% of GDP.
Russian ruble: 0.009704 U.S. dollars. -18% since invasion.
3-year bond yield: 17.42%
Ukraine: -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)3.2% GDP forecast for 2024.
Budget deficit: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02398 U.S. dollars. -28% since invasion.
3-year bond yield: 23.09%
Infrastructure11
Russia: No significant damage.
Ukraine: 64%, or 36 out of 56 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied.
Popular support12
Russia:57% support peace negotiations.
Ukraine: 35% support peace negotiations.
Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):
Ammunition supply
Foreign military aid
Force generation
Military leadership
Training
Morale
Control of strategic locations
Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.
report card
Footnotes
This does not include Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast. Ukraine controlled386 square miles of Russian territory in the Kursk region circa Aug.12, 2024, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to ISW data, Ukraine suffered a net loss of 155 square miles in the past two months.
Including territory occupied before 2022, Russia now controls about 41,000 square miles (17.5%) of Ukraine. Maps and territorial estimates based on data from: “Russian Campaign Assessments,”Institute for the Study of War,https://www.understandingwar.org/; “Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine in Maps — Latest Updates,”Financial Times; New York Times, “Ukraine Maps: Tracking the Russian Invasion,”https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html; “Ukraine in Maps: Tracking the War with Russia,”BBC News, sec. Europe,https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682.
RM staff’s November-December 2024 calculations based on data prepared by the Institute for the Study of War. All figures are net totals.
Ukraine controlled386 square miles of Russian territory in the Kursk region circa Aug.12, 2024, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to ISW data, Ukraine suffered a net loss of 155 square miles in the past two months.
New York Times, “43,000 Ukrainian Soldiers Killed Since Russia Invaded, Zelensky Says,” Dec. 8, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/world/europe/ukrainian-war-dead.html; Reuters, “Russian minister says 48,000 relatives trying to trace soldiers via DNA,” Dec. 4, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-minister-says-48000-relatives-trying-trace-soldiers-via-dna-2024-12-04/
U.N. Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner, “Grim milestone of 1,000 days since Russia launched full-scale armed attack,” Nov. 19, 2024,https://ukraine.ohchr.org/en/Grim-milestone-of-1000-days-since-Russia-launched-full-scale-armed-attack;
Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,”Oryx (blog),https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS,https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,”https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,”https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html.
These numbers are slightly lower than in the previous issue of the report card (26 naval vessels lost for Russia and 41 lost for Ukraine), which cited Oryx and IISS Military Balance 2022 as sources. Via Oryx, we were able to find a source specific to naval losses, from which the current numbers were taken.
United Nations, “Ukraine Humanitarian Response,”https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/ukraine/; Estimates of Russian displacement based off public reporting, including “About 700,000 citizens left Russia after September 21,” Forbes.ru, October 4, 2022,https://www.forbes.ru/society/478827-rossiu-posle-21-sentabra-pokinuli-okolo-700-000-grazdan; Mary Ilyushina, “Cyprus, a Haven for Russian Expats, Welcomes Techies Fleeing Ukraine War,”Washington Post, October 24, 2022,https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/23/cyprus-russian-expat-tech-workers/. The Moscow Times, “Nearly 4M Russians Left Russia in Early 2022 – FSB,” The Moscow Times, May 6, 2022,https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/06/nearly-4m-russians-left-russia-in-early-2022-fsb-a77603. Kyiv Post, “Twice as Many People Left Russia in the First Half of 2022 as in the First Half of 2021,”https://www.kyivpost.com/post/5278; ZOiS, “The Political Diversity of the New Migration from Russia Since February 2022,”https://www.zois-berlin.de/en/publications/zois-report/the-political-diversity-of-the-new-migration-from-russia-since-february-2022; U.N., “Ukraine Emergency,” https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/ukraine/.
International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com,https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,”https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,”https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Investing.com, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,”https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,”https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01.
Based off public media reporting, including “Ukraine Real-Time Electricity Data Explorer – Data Tools,” IEA,https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ukraine-real-time-electricity-data-explorer; Dara Massicot, “What Russia Got Wrong,”Foreign Affairs, February 8, 2023,https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/what-russia-got-wrong-moscow-failures-in-ukraine-dara-massicot; Aura Sabadus, “Power to Ukraine,” CEPA,https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-energy-grid-resilience-continues-despite-invasion/; Christopher Miller, Alice Hancock, and Isobel Koshiw, “Russia Has Taken out over Half of Ukraine Power Generation,”Financial Times, June 5, 2024, sec. War in Ukraine,https://www.ft.com/content/4d583259-7565-4cbc-972e-ea77f4a76175
Levada Center, “Conflict with Ukraine in November 2024,” Dec. 4, 2022, https://www.levada.ru/2024/12/04/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-v-noyabre-2024-goda-vnimanie-podderzhka-otnoshenie-k-peregovoram-trudnosti-i-uspehi-svo-stolknovenie-rossii-i-nato-primenenie-yadernogo-oruzhiya/; Razumkov Center, “Support among citizens for Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO. Attitude to foreign countries. Attitude to peace talks (September, 2024),” https://razumkov.org.ua/en/sociology/press-releases/support-among-citizens-for-ukraine-s-accession-to-the-eu-and-nato-attitude-to-foreign-countries-attitude-to-peace-talks-september-2024.
Originally produced by Kate Davidson, a researcher with the Avoiding Great Power War Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and an RM associate. Since December 2024 produced by RM staff.