As most of the world cherished the ending of Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship in Syria on Sunday 8 December, Moscow saw it differently.
Speaking in Qatar at the Doha Forum on 7 December, Foreign Minister Lavrov was quick to blame the US and its NATO allies for a global hegemonic plot.
Given Kremlin’s long-term backing of the brutal dictatorship, the official Russian line deployed on all main state outlets was not to give it prominent coverage, but if mentioning the topic to stick with the usual practice of blaming the US as the mastermind behind the events. Pro-Kremlin mouthpieces also took the opportunity to push disinformation claiming that Ukrainian forces were instrumental in military and drone support to terrorist groups.
Up until the night of 7 December, Russia state outlets insisted on the so-called Astana-format of negotiations (Russia, Iran, Turkiye) to manage developments in Syria. This format is now recognised by Putin’s spokesperson as lost.
During the weekend, Russian state actors and pro-Kremlin outlets tried to cover up Putin’s embarrassing failure in Syria with disinformation narratives spread across all available language platforms including Russian, Arabic, French, English and several others. Besides US and Ukraine, the deceptive narratives claimed, Israel could be behind as well as other unnamed ‘foreign forces’. As usual, Ukraine got plenty of blame, in particular for allegedly training and fighting with jihadists.
These false allegations closely resemble disinformation and manipulative tactics deployed following the terrorist attack in Moscow, when the Kremlin baselessly accused Ukraine of supporting terrorists to attack Moscow. See our EUvsDisinfo Database for more examples. True to Russia’s standard information manipulation practices, the database also illustrates the highly coordinated nature of reporting and messaging across platforms and language domains.
Sunday 8 December
As the dynamics on the ground unfolded and the Assad regime collapsed, Russia claimed on Sunday afternoon that Assad had given instructions for a peaceful transition of power and resigned voluntarily. Assad’s presence in Russia is now presented as humanitarian asylum granted by Putin. This hypocrisy adds insult to injury to the countless Syrian refugees who over the years had to flee both Assad and the Russian bombings.
Save the pieces
Since Monday, Moscow began a communication effort claiming it has contacts with all groups in Syria – including those until recently labelled “terrorists” by Moscow and that Russia wants an ethnic dialogue and is promoting a role for the UN; both the UN Security Council and the UN Secretary General’s Special Representative for Syria. Most importantly, Russia tries to secure its continued presence in Syria, esp. the Tartus naval facility which serves Russia’s operations in the Middle East and Africa.
Where is Putin?
As usual, Putin is silent and not in the picture when there is a crisis with potential for negative PR. This is in contrast to other earlier when Putin was eager to take credit for his intervention in Syria.
Back in October 2015, 10 days after Russia’s intervention with airstrikes to support Assad had prevented the looming fall of Damascus, Putin stood out and framed Russia’s actions in Syria emphasizing it legality and the strategic necessity of Russia’s intervention, downplaying its broader geopolitical motivations. Putin claimed that Russia would act in full compliance with international law to stabilise Syria and support its government in combating terrorism. However, the facts on the ground told a different story. Emboldened by Russian military support, Assad’s dictatorship perpetrated systematic attacks on civilians and indiscriminate bombings to spread fear and terror among its population.
Operation Sweet-talk Trump
The Kremlin disinformation narratives accusing Ukraine of supporting terrorists in Syria are part and parcel of its ongoing manipulative efforts to reduce the appetite of the incoming US administration to support to Kyiv.
In his conversation with Tucker Carlson, aired on 6 December and clearly aimed at US audiences, Lavrov recycled a series of Russian falsehoods and disinformation tropes regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Besides the standard lie that “Russia did not start the war,” he also engaged in some not-so-subtle pandering to the US president elect, calling Trump “a very strong person” and suggesting that Biden was deliberately leaving a bad situation for Trump to inherit, asserting that the “ball is on the US’s side.”
The conversation was framed as an ‘interview’ in the same way as Carlson’s talk with Putin. Lavrov was given a microphone to push his usual historical revisionism, blaming the West and Ukraine for sabotaging the Minsk agreements, portraying Russia as a reasonable foreign policy actor in contrast to the US, and accusing the West of only being after Ukraine’s resources. Lavrov framed Russia’s invasion as a “de-colonisation” effort. In a desperate attempt to drive a wedge in transatlantic unity, Lavrov even insinuated that Germany was behind Navalny’s death in a Russian prison camp, choosing not the mention the fact that Germany’s crucial medical treatment was instrument in saving Navalny’s life in 2020 after the Russian secret service’s cold-blooded poisoning.
Back to Basics – it is all about Ukraine
We conclude this edition by going ‘back to basics’. Everything in Moscow’s actions and rhetoric is about Ukraine, whether it is spelled out or not.
Putin will entertain his audience on 19 December with the annual so-called call-in conference. Get ready for a cavalcade of cherry-picked disinformation including history lessons about Ukraine not being a state but a neo-Nazi camp. Or an outburst against the EU and NATO leaders for preparing a military invasion of Russia and neglecting the wishes of the European people. Or how peaceful Russia is by engaging in nuclear sabre-rattling. Or how great Russia’s economy is doing even with interest rates at 21% and emptying savings. Expect also ‘mafia love’ aimed at the incoming US president: flattering sweet-talk blended with veiled threats. It is all about Ukraine.
Here is a list of Putin classics to help you prepare: “What he said and what it really means” – Vol. 1 – 8.
Also on our Disinfo radar:
The goal: Split the US-EU transatlantic bond. This claim is trying to manipulate the diplomatic playing field ahead of Trump taking office to confuse and derail the main discussion: Who is in need of security guarantees? So far, Russia has proven itself to be a security eroder, not a security builder and Russia’s invasions of Georgia in 2008 and of Ukraine since 2014 and the ill-concealed attempts to dominate Moldova speak louder than thousand propaganda chimes from Moscow. It is Ukraine, which needs security guarantees, not Russia.
This claim is transmitted via the Sputnik network that is the leading Russian state-owned and controlled outlet to reach audiences around the world in more than 25 languages. See our analysis of the RT/Sputnik system
The goal: Split Ukraine. Pronounced by the Kremlin spokesperson Peskov, this claim is trying to split Ukraine inside and lure those ready to accept Moscow’s terms. Secondly, to drive a wedge between Zelenskyy and EU, NATO, G7 and all those backing Ukraine’s legitimate right to self-defence. The claim only makes sense in the Kremlin mind where ‘negotiations’ equals all others accepting every demand presented by Moscow. We have analysed this disinfo tactic in several articles, especially: “Prepare for winter“, “Russian so-called ‘peace proposals’ are empty PR stunts“, “What He Said and What it Really Means – Vol. 2: “Negotiations” and “The Kremlin security demands“.
The goal: smear Europe. This particular claim runs on Russian state platforms in Arabic language.
This claim is manifestly wrong and an example of gross misrepresentation of statistical data. The recent, periodical Eurobarometer survey show that EU citizens overwhelmingly support actions to help Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia’s full-scale invasion. 87% of Europeans also support providing humanitarian support to those affected by the war, while 71% of EU citizens support sanctions against the Russian government, companies, and individuals involved in the invasion.
Stick with the facts. Don’t be deceived.