A member of the Islamic State militants waves an IS flag in the Syrian city of Raqqa. (file photo)
A member of the Islamic State militants waves an IS flag in the Syrian city of Raqqa. (file photo)
The Islamic State (IS) has been considered a largely spent force for years, with its remnants present in the vast desert that straddles the border between Syria and Iraq.
But the extremist group could attempt to exploit the power vacuum in Syria, where militants toppled longtime President Bashar al-Assad, to make a resurgence, experts warn.
IS militants stunned the world when they seized large swaths of Syria and Iraq and declared a self-styled caliphate in 2014. But they had been largely defeated by a U.S.-led coalition by 2018.
“IS is the kind of movement and group that reformulates and recreates itself,” said Fatima Ayub, a Washington-based political analyst and researcher on the Middle East and South Asia.
Experts say the group will look to exploit the sectarian and ethnic fault lines in Syria to reestablish a foothold in the country.
Underscoring the threat posed by the group, the United States has carried out scores of air strikes against suspected IS hideouts in Syria in recent days.
Sleeper Cells
The U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control northeastern Syria, have warned that IS sleeper cells could attempt to exploit the fluid situation in the country.
A member of the Syrian Democratic Forces (left) stands near IS inmates in a prison in northeast Syria. (file photo)
A member of the Syrian Democratic Forces (left) stands near IS inmates in a prison in northeast Syria. (file photo)
Syria has been gripped by uncertainty since militants led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S. and EU-designated terrorist organization, seized power and toppled Assad on December 8.
In Damascus, HTS has formed a transitional administration. But it is unclear if it will be able to disarm or coopt disparate armed groups that control different parts of Syria. If HTS cannot, there remains the possibility of a renewed civil war or prolonged instability, experts say.
“The modus operandi of IS is chaos, it's harm, it's targeting civilians,” said Ayub.
Thousands of IS fighters and their family members are held in dozens of prison camps controlled by the SDF in northern and eastern Syria.
Anne Speckhard, director of the International Center for the Study of Violent Extremism in Washington, said there are still IS supporters in Syria who “routinely engage in terror attacks.”
She said imprisoned IS members hope that these armed supporters “assault the prisons [they’re held in] and free them to reconstitute IS’s territorial caliphate.”
'Keep The Problem At Bay'
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned on December 9 that “IS will try to use this period to reestablish its capabilities, to create safe havens.”
Since December 8, U.S. forces have conducted “precision air strikes” against 75 targets, including “known IS camps and operatives” in central Syria, according to the Pentagon.
Since 2014, Washington has led a global coalition to defeat IS. In October 2019, the United States killed IS founding leader Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi. Since then, it has killed three of his successors.
“If the U.S. keeps up the pressure on IS with these air strikes, it can help keep the problem at bay,” said Aymenn Al-Tamimi, an independent Spain-based analyst tracking the extremist group. “It's not necessarily the case that IS manages to regroup and make big gains.”
The key, Tamimi said, is the vast central and eastern desert region in Syria where remnants of IS are still active.
A Russian woman carries her child while waiting in line at a makeshift hospital in a camp in northern Syria housing the families of men who had fought for IS. (file photo)
A Russian woman carries her child while waiting in line at a makeshift hospital in a camp in northern Syria housing the families of men who had fought for IS. (file photo)
The area is largely controlled by the SDF. But in a sign of an impending power struggle, HTS seized control of the oil-rich eastern city of Deir ez-Zor from the SDF on December 11.
“There's been no resolution yet of the relationship between SDF areas and whatever the central authority in Damascus will be,” he said.
Approximate Areas Of Control In Syria (December 10, 2024)
Meanwhile, there have been deadly clashes between the SDF and the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), which is loosely allied with HTS.
Tamimi said it is unlikely that IS will swiftly overrun large swaths of Syria as it did back in 2014. But infighting among the various militant and rebel groups in the country could offer it an opening.
“They could take advantage of fighting between the Turkish-backed groups and SDF,” he said.
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