This is going to make bittersweet reading and I take no pleasure in predicting what I’m about to predict regarding Newcastle United, as I sincerely hope I’m wrong and another way can be found, but please don’t shoot the messenger.
Here goes..
Newcastle United are currently bogged down with a nightmare situation of Financial Fair Play restrictions, a contradiction of a term if ever I’ve seen one, but the rules that are in place are stopping us from building the side that we the fans, the owners and manager Eddie Howe wants to see on the pitch.
Unless Newcastle United qualify for the Champions League THIS season, our ability to go out and spend the required amounts to push on won’t be available to us. We may not be able to even WITH Champions League qualification.
It’s with this conundrum that I see a solution to our financial problems in that regard. Like I’ve said, many of you won’t like what I’m about to say.
This season has so far not lived up to expectation. The players will know that, the manager will know that and the ownership will not want that either. We are currently sat in 12th.
Can Newcastle United still push on to a European campaign next season? Of course we can, although I fear even the most optimistic Newcastle fan would have been on the Newkie Brown if he thought Champions League is possible. It’s simply not.
And like I’ve said, it’s with this eventual outcome next May that will provide the answers we need going forward, no matter how unpalatable they may be.
We are looking at the very real prospect of finishing outside the top seven and missing Europe, unless we get a wriggle on in the second half of the season, or (here’s hoping) winning a cup. We may finish around about where we are right now. I’d hope not but can anyone say with any degree of certainty that we WILL finish in a European spot? I can’t.
This news won’t go down well with the owners but it also, despite them being ultimately responsible, won’t go down well with the players. There will be a few that will demand moves away.
The prime candidates will obviously be Bruno Guimaraes, Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon. Certainly the first two will likely be away if we don’t secure a European competition two years running. Gordon I feel would be more sympathetic and would fall into the “I’ll give you another year to achieve it” sort of camp, much like Bruno probably did last summer.
I don’t know about the wider Newcastle United fanbase but I feel giving Bruno the captaincy hasn’t worked. Certainly not anywhere near as well as it perhaps appeared to those that thought of the idea.
The only way forward I see is losing one of the bigger players I’ve mentioned, maybe two of them, outside chance of all three.
Of the rest of the squad…
Nick Pope, Lewis Hall, Tino Livramento, Dan Burn, Fabian Schar, Sandro Tonali, Sean Longstaff, Joelinton, Joe Willock, Lewis Miley, Harvey Barnes, Jacob Murphy and William Osuna would be tasked with being the core group, along with whoever the club sign to replace any high profile and big money departures.
I’m not saying a mid-table finish could be our saviour, but then again, I kind of am.
The alternative? Well there really isn’t one if we don’t make Europe AND all the Newcastle United players are happy with which Europe it is. If it’s the Europa League, a couple will want away, if it’s no Europe at all then this very scenario WILL pan out next summer, mark my words.
But it would also mean a sizable windfall and financial restrictions won’t be a problem. You can name your price for Isak. £100m? Easy. Gordon would be similar. Even approaching 28, Bruno would command £70m+. Meaning £250m or thereabouts to put back into the team before any other sales are contemplated? That’s a pretty decent “reward” for what would be a failure of a season.
That’s where the recruitment department would HAVE to get it right if we were to correct the mistakes of last summer, where for whatever reason/s we failed to strengthen sufficiently. It’s also the ONLY way around things as I see it.
In the middle of it all we have Eddie Howe.
If he qualifies for Europe, the board will back him.
If he fails, he’ll probably get the sack, after being insufficiently backed over a few windows. Hardly his fault.
I sincerely hope any post-mortem and review is fair and takes into consideration a lack of funding due to absurd financial restrictions, boardroom departures and new backroom staff. Then there’s a new Sporting Director in Paul Mitchell who hasn’t been here five minutes.
The long and short of it is…
If Newcastle United qualify for Europe, we keep our best players, but our spending power isn’t sufficient to sustain a successful campaign. If we fail to qualify for Europe, we lose our best players but we gain the riches to build the team once more and we go again, but with the added upheaval that the manager will likely be sacrificed.
That’s the way I see it. Aint the rules a pain in the…