When the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader spoke about Syria on Wednesday, most of his speech was familiar. But his pledge to reclaim Syria from opposition forces took even his closest followers by surprise.
Ali Khamenei’s promise to take back Syria and expel the United States mirrored past Islamic Republic policies in Iraq and Afghanistan, where it sought to create chaos. Yet, Syria's situation is unique and far more complex than those earlier scenarios.
"The territories that have been seized in Syria will be liberated by the brave Syrian youth. Have no doubts that this will happen," Khamenei declared.
The key points of his speech included refusing to acknowledge the failure of the "Axis of Resistance" strategy, silencing criticism of it, and criticizing Türkiye.
In Khamenei's speech, the Syrian people were overlooked entirely. He ignored their experiences and challenges. Instead, he blamed the Syrian army's weakness for Assad's struggles, conveniently leaving out any mention of Russia's limited support for the regime.
Due to its sensitivity, Wednesday's speech was not broadcast live, unlike the usual practice in recent years, allowing for potential revisions. Nevertheless, the speech ultimately included elements that were far from diplomatic.
The most surprising part of Khamenei’s speech was his promise to reclaim Syria - an unnecessary commitment that could have been expressed more vaguely or with general statements.
Khamenei said that opposition groups had differing agendas, saying, “Their goals differ - some aim to seize territory from northern or southern Syria.” Regarding the U.S. presence in the region, he added, “Inshallah, none of these goals will be achieved. The occupied areas of Syria will be liberated by the brave Syrian youth. Don't doubt. This will happen, and the U.S. foothold will not be strengthened."
These remarks contrasted with statements from government officials and the Foreign Ministry, which emphasized maintaining bilateral relations based on mutual interests and international legal obligations.
Khamenei’s speech hinted at the possibility of adopting a policy toward Syria similar to the Islamic Republic's strategies in Iraq and Afghanistan, aimed at creating challenges for U.S. forces and their allies.
However, Syria's unique circumstances complicate the Islamic Republic's influence. The country lacks a Shia-majority population and does not share a border with Iran.
The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic said, "Our intelligence services had conveyed alarming reports to Syrian officials months ago."
This claim aligns with the recent propaganda efforts by Iranian institutions, suggesting that Khamenei had provided Bashar al-Assad with sufficient warnings about possible actions aimed at toppling him.
Another narrative in this propaganda effort is that the Islamic Republic distanced itself from Assad due to certain actions, including his rapprochement with the West.
This narrative aims to obscure the fact that the Islamic Republic was unable to prevent Assad’s downfall.
Khamenei described undermining public morale as a crime. While critics of the Islamic Republic's regional policies have faced legal repercussions in recent years, his remarks will likely make dissent even riskier.
Amid the ongoing crisis, the Islamic Republic is seeking to suppress public debate over its "Axis of Resistance" strategy.
Khamenei said that Qassem Soleimani, the slain commander of the Quds Force, had attempted to establish a militia similar to the Basij in Syria but that Syrian military officials had thwarted the effort.
Previously, Iranian media attributed this initiative to Hossein Hamedani, another slain IRGC commander in Syria.
The Supreme Leader acknowledged Assad's weak support base, even within the Syrian army, adding, "If the army of that country showed weakness, the Basij would not be effective—and unfortunately, this happened."
Khamenei indirectly criticized Türkiye, saying a neighboring government had played an evident role in the conflict while placing the primary blame on the U.S. and Israel, labeling them as the masterminds behind the crisis.
"No one should doubt that what has happened in Syria is the product of a joint US-Israeli plot," Khamenei said.
“Yes, a neighboring government of Syria plays, has played, and is playing an obvious role in this regard—everyone sees this—but the main conspirators, masterminds, and command centers are in America and the Zionist regime. We have evidence. This evidence leaves no room for doubt.”
In recent days, Iranian officials have also criticized Türkiye.
Developments in Syria have introduced new tensions between Iran and Türkiye. During the earlier phase of Syria’s protests, Iran’s conflicts were primarily with Arab states. However, Türkiye has since become the leading supporter of opposition groups against Assad, significantly shifting the dynamics.
Iran and Türkiye have also clashed over several issues, including Türkiye's support for the Zangezur corridor. Syria has further exacerbated these tensions, where competing interests have intensified their disagreements in recent years.
Khamenei avoided addressing specific issues, but his silence on Assad’s role in his downfall was expected. What was less anticipated was his failure to address other topics, such as Russia's involvement in Syria.
In Khamenei's speech, the Syrian people were completely absent.
Rather than using propaganda to claim that the Islamic Republic supports a democratic referendum free from Western influence, Khamenei offered no vision for Syria’s future beyond Assad's leadership.
The speech also notably failed to acknowledge Russia’s role in Syria or the declining support for Assad.
Previous statements from Khamenei’s allies and former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif regarding Russia’s decision-making on its presence in Syria have been contradictory.
In a leaked audio file, Zarif had said, "We claim Soleimani brought Putin into the war, but Putin had already made his decision. Putin entered the war with air power but also dragged Iran’s ground forces into it. Until then, we didn’t have ground troops - only Syrians, Arabs, Afghans, and volunteers."
Khamenei pledged that the "Resistance Front" remains strong and that Iran’s power is growing. However, he avoided addressing the challenges facing the Islamic Republic’s proxy groups.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah is grappling with increased difficulties, compounded by the recent death of Hassan Nasrallah and the ceasefire. The closure of critical arms routes from Syria to Lebanon has only worsened its position. Meanwhile, in Iraq, Iran-backed factions are also under mounting pressure, facing growing opposition and weakening influence.
Despite these setbacks, Khamenei offered no clear strategy, signaling Iran remains uncertain about its next moves.
In Shia religious traditions, Syria - historically referred to as "Sham" - has symbolized oppression and deceit, while Kufa in Iraq represents betrayal and disloyalty. Official propaganda often depicts Kufa as a symbol of rebellious people, but no modern narrative has been created for Sham.
Now, Syria’s situation may once again bring Sham into the Islamic Republic’s rhetoric.
To critics, however, Khamenei may soon be forced to drink the "cup of poison" of defeat in his regional policies and the "Resistance Front" - this time, served by Syria.