According to ESPN’s FPI, the Patriots enter the last four weeks of the season with a 23.1 percent chance of finishing with the No. 1 overall draft pick. Currently, on the strength of the weakest schedule among teams near the top of the NFL Draft, the Patriots, who are one of six teams with 3-10 records, would pick third.
The two teams above them — the Raiders and the Giants who are 2-11 — are both likely to take quarterbacks so the Patriots, who don’t need a QB, could potentially take whomever they want. Moving up however, would give them enviable trade-down options for teams who want a quarterback.
This is not advocating for tanking, which has drastically less value when a team already has a quarterback. Fans can want to the Patriots to win, but still root for results that will help their draft position in a win or a loss.
As always, strength-of-schedule info is from Tankathon.
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Thursday
Rams (7-6) at 49ers (6-7) — Simple strength of schedule game. Root for the team that Patriots played to lose. Root for: 49ers
Sunday
Chiefs (12-1) at Browns (3-10) — This is like rooting for the bug to beat the windshield. But a Browns win gets the Patriots some breathing room Root for: Browns
Bengals (5-8) at Titans (3-10) — This is a game Tennessee could win and if they do, it would give create some cushion for the Patriots, who are picking higher based only on strength of schedule. Root for: Titans.
Ravens (8-5) at Giants (2-11) — This is the big one. Or one of the big ones. A win for the Giants means the Patriots (if they lose) would move up a spot. Root for: Giants
Cowboys (5-8) at Panthers (3-10) — The Patriots are rooting for any team with three losses to win. Root for: Panthers
Jets (3-10) at Jaguars (3-10) — So this is generally a toss up, but given the choice Patriots fans are rooting against Aaron Rodgers and company. Root for: Jags
Monday
Bears (4-9) at Vikings (11-2) — A Minnesota win both helps the Patriots strength of schedule and puts extra room between them and the Bears. Root for: Vikings
Falcons (6-7) at Raiders (2-11) — The Raiders, whose No. 1 and No. 2 quarterbacks aren’t good are down to No. 3. This is a long shot but... Root for: Raiders.