The two ways to look at a trip to the desert for the Patriots in Sunday's matchup vs. the Cardinals are through the prism of finishing this season strong or with an eye toward the 2025 NFL Draft.
New England will come off its bye week already eliminated from playoff contention, while the Cardinals (6-7) playoff hopes are hanging by a thread after losing to the Seahawks in Week 14. Arizona is two games out of a playoff berth in the NFC, giving them a slim 8% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN's playoff odds: the Cardinals are in must-win mode.
As for the Patriots, the question for head coach Jerod Mayo's team is what's their compete level with four games remaining in their season? The Pats could build some momentum in the last month of the year. A strong finish would set up an offseason where New England is loaded with resources to upgrade the roster. It sounds great in theory, right? And some recent success stories fit that criteria.
For example, the Lions went 2-2 to end a 3-13-1 campaign in head coach Dan Campbell's first season in 2021. Detroit followed that by winning five of their last six to narrowly miss the playoffs in 2022, finishing 9-8, and then broke out with a 12-5 campaign in 2023. Kyle Shanahan's Niners followed a similar script, finishing a 4-12 2018 season 2-2, then going 13-3 the next year, losing in the Super Bowl to Kansas City.
Believing the Patriots could rattle off a similar ending to this season is admittedly looking at things with rose-colored glasses. The added challenge is that the Pats have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL, per DVOA, with two divisional games vs. the Bills, at home vs. the Chargers, and this week's road trip to Arizona to play out the string. Still, any sign of life could be the spark they need to turn the tide in 2025.
The other way to look at their remaining slate is through the lens of the 2025 NFL Draft. Currently, the Pats hold the third-overall pick in next April's draft, behind the Raiders and Giants. If things go awry, the coping mechanism we can all use is that New England will lock up another top-five draft pick, adding a second-straight highly drafted rookie class to first-round QB Drake Maye and 2023 first-rounder Christian Gonzalez.
From this perspective, the last month of this season is different from last year's since the Patriots already have their quarterback of the future in Maye. They're not losing out on a prized QB prospect by winning. Wins, or even competitive losses, aren't hollow now because it's building confidence in the Maye-Mayo regime. Plus, Maye will need help to make these games interesting, hopefully from some teammates who are a part of the Pats future plans.
That said, we'll have eyes on both the on-field product and the draft order the rest of the way. Already peeking at the draft and the offseason isn't where the Patriots want to be, but it's their reality, so we'll have to settle for hope for the future over breaking down playoff scenarios.
Let's preview the schematic chess match between the Patriots and Cardinals as New England returns from its bye in Arizona.
**Patriots Offense vs. Cardinals Defense: Preparing Maye for a Fangio-Inspired Cards Defense**
Starting on offense, Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye might get sick of seeing the same defensive philosophy every week, but it's one he'll have to familiarize himself with as it takes over the NFL.
After being hired away following a Super Bowl appearance as the Eagles defensive coordinator, Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon brought his Fangio-inspired defensive system to Arizona. Gannon is a zone-based odd front (3-4) schemer who structures his defenses to limit big plays with base coverages popularized by now Philly DC Vic Fangio.
Like Fangio, the Cardinals often start the play in a two-high safety shell with a lighter box, relying on their defensive front to stop the run. Arizona plays out of a light box at the third-highest rate in the NFL (74.2%), while 61.1% of their defensive snaps start with a two-high safety structure (10th in the NFL). The Cardinals most-used coverage is a cover-three zone (31.3%), where they'll often "buzz" a safety into the short zone distribution while adding in late as extra run support. Although they disguise the coverage shell and pressure well, it's another week where patience and attacking the first two levels of the defense is a must for Maye.
Arizona's defense ranks a respectable 14th in DVOA playing this style, which has some creativity that makes it more exotic than the Seattle-3 defense Maye faced vs. Indy before the bye. Still, there are vulnerabilities. Mainly, the Cardinals run defense, which allowed 176 yards on 31 rush attempts to Seattle in a 30-18 loss in Week 14.