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U.S.-Japan Extended Deterrence Dialogue

Japan hosted the United States for an Extended Deterrence Dialogue (EDD) at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan on December 10-12, 2024. Japan and the United States established the EDD in 2010 as an enduring venue to discuss ways to sustain and strengthen extended deterrence, which is at the core of the Japan-U.S. Alliance. The Japanese side was co-chaired by Mr. KUMAGAI Naoki, Deputy Director-General, North American Affairs Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Mr. UEDA Koji, Deputy Director-General, Defense Policy Bureau, Ministry of Defense. The U.S. side was co-chaired by Ms. Alexandra Bell, Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability, Department of State, and Mr. Richard Johnson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Policy, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Department of Defense. The delegations included participants from divisions from both sides in charge of security policy and arms control, as well as from JSDF, USSTRATCOM, USINDOPACOM, and U.S. Forces Japan.

The delegations reiterated the commitments made by the Prime Minister of Japan and President of the United States to continue enhancing U.S. extended deterrence, bolstered by Japan’s defense capabilities. This EDD also followed the Japan-U.S. Security Consultative Committee (“2+2”) Meeting and the first Japan-U.S. ministerial meeting on extended deterrence on July 28, 2024, in which the Ministers of both countries highlighted the steady progress in strengthening coordination and deepening discussions on extended deterrence, including through periodic review of the EDD’s activities and by leveraging the Alliance Coordination Mechanism.

The two sides shared assessments of challenges to regional security, including Russia’s escalating and threatening nuclearrhetoric in the context of its aggression against Ukraine as well as its revised nuclear doctrine, its undermining of arms control and the global nonproliferation regime, and the DPRK’s advancement of its nuclear program and missile activities and enhanced cooperation with Russia. Moreover, the two sides also shared their concern over the PRC’s accelerating expansion of its nuclear arsenal, which is taking place without adequate transparency or explanation of its intent. In the face of this dynamic reality, especially with regard to nuclear capabilities, Japan and the United States reiterated their shared resolve to further strengthen extended deterrence, bolstered by Japan’s capabilities.

In this context, the two sides discussed how to improve policy coordination and alignment of defense capabilities to deter and, if necessary, respond to aggression against the Alliance and in the region. In particular, the delegations emphasized the importance of strengthening cooperation in order to defend against potential attacks and deter nuclear use in the increasingly challenging security environment. They deepened discussion on the relationship between nuclear and non-nuclear military matters within the Alliance, on coordinating deterrence messaging and escalation management practices during both peacetime and contingencies, and on bilateral coordination through the Alliance Coordination Mechanism throughout every phase of a developing situation. Japan and the United States also stressed the important role that arms control, risk reduction, and nonproliferation play in promoting stability and reducing the risks of conflict.

Furthermore, the two sides conducted a tabletop exercise to increase mutual understanding of potential courses of action to enhance deterrence and cooperation in crisis scenarios; tabletop exercises are a regular feature in EDD meetings.

The delegations visited JGSDF Camp Kengun in Kumamoto prefecture and observed the command post exercise “Yama Sakura 87” (YS-87) and JGSDF assets such as the Type-12 surface-to-ship guided missile and Network Electronic Warfare System.