The 7-6 Bucs will look to turn their three-game winning streak into a four-game winning streak on Sunday when they head out to the West Coast for a Week 15 matchup with the 8-5 Los Angeles Chargers. It’s a big game for Tampa Bay, as it’s the team’s last game of the regular season against a team above .500. Winning this one would get Todd Bowles and Co. one step closer to a fourth straight NFC South title.
The Bucs already took a big step toward a division title four-peat this past Sunday, beating the Raiders 28-13 while the Falcons were losing 42-21 to the Vikings. With those two results, Tampa Bay jumped Atlanta and now sits atop the NFC South heading into Week 15. If the Bucs and Falcons finish with identical records over the final four games of the season, it’ll be the back-to-back-to-back division champions making it four in a row and hosting a playoff game on Super Wild Card Weekend.
The Chargers are on their own path to the playoffs, so Sunday’s game between the two sides has heavy playoff implications. Tampa Bay will be looking to strengthen its hold on the NFC South lead, while Los Angeles will be looking to improve their positioning within the AFC Wild Card picture.
Here is a comprehensive preview of Sunday’s matchup between the Bucs and Chargers:
The Last Time…
Former Bucs TE O.J. Howard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
These two teams last met early in Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl LV-winning season, way back in Week 4 of the 2020 season. A rookie Justin Herbert had Los Angeles up 24-7 on Tom Brady and the Bucs early, but Brady brought his new team back. Joshua Kelley’s fumble near the end of the first half set up a Brady touchdown pass to Mike Evans that made it 24-14, and that was the start of a 21-0 run for the Bucs.
Brady threw touchdown passes to O.J. Howard and Scotty Miller in the third quarter before Herbert hit Jalen Guyton for a 72-yard touchdown at the end of that quarter to put the visiting Chargers back on top. But a 9-yard touchdown pass from Brady to Ke’Shawn Vaughn and a late Ryan Succop field goal helped the home team escape with a 38-31 win.
Brady threw for 369 yards and five touchdowns in that game, with Evans leading all receivers with seven catches for 122 yards and a touchdown. Herbert was 20-of-25 for 290 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, while Michael Davis got Brady for a 78-yard pick six.
Over 12 meetings all time between these two teams, the Chargers hold an 8-4 advantage. But the Bucs have won the last three meetings and haven’t lost a meeting on the road since 2004, back when the Chargers were still in San Diego.
How The Bucs And Chargers Are Trending
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today
The Bucs have won three straight games out of their Week 11 bye, getting themselves from 4-6 to 7-6 with a 30-7 win over the Giants, a 26-23 overtime win over the Panthers and a 28-13 win over the Raiders. Those three wins paired with Atlanta’s current four-game losing streak means Tampa Bay is now sitting atop the NFC South with four games to play.
The current three-game winning streak hasn’t been all that pretty for Todd Bowles and his team. The blowout win over a lifeless Giants team was much needed, but it took a desperation forced fumble by Anthony Nelson in overtime for the Bucs to avoid what could’ve been a season-crushing loss to the Panthers.
And this past Sunday, they let the Raiders hang around for far too long and shot themselves in the foot repeatedly until finally putting the game away late.
So, while the Bucs are in control of their own playoff destiny and simply have to match the Falcons’ record over the final four games to win the NFC South for the fourth straight season, they need to start playing better football. Sunday’s game against the 8-5 Chargers is the only one of their last four games to come against a team above .500. Perhaps they’ll play up to their competition this week rather than playing down to it like they’ve done in recent weeks. If that’s the case, they’ll need to maintain that level of play even as they face the 5-8 Cowboys, 3-10 Panthers and 5-8 Saints over the season’s final three weeks.
It’s been a season of runs for Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers. They won back-to-back games to start the season, then lost three of their next four to fall to 3-3. From there, Los Angeles won four straight games, beating New Orleans, Cleveland, Tennessee and Cincinnati. Since then, the Chargers have lost two of three, with losses to the Ravens and Chiefs coming on both sides of a win over the Falcons.
Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh Photo by: USA Today
Year 1 under Harbaugh has been a success, as the Chargers are on track to make the playoffs. At 8-5, they’re two games clear of missing the field with four games to play. Not only that, but Los Angeles is tied at 8-5 with the other two AFC Wild Card teams – Baltimore and Denver.
These next two games could be pivotal as they fight for playoff positioning, as they have the 7-6 Bucs this Sunday before a short week ahead of a crucial Thursday Night Football game against the 8-5 Broncos. How they fare in these next two weeks could determine their positioning, as they have an easier final two games. Though both are on the road, they face the 3-10 Patriots and 2-11 Raiders.
Harbaugh isn’t the type of coach who will have a team that gets caught looking ahead, even if the team’s Thursday night game in Week 16 could decide their playoff positioning given that it comes against one of the teams they’re directly competing with. The Chargers will show up on Sunday, and the Bucs need to be able to match their grit and will.
Bucs Offense: 5th in scoring offense (27.9 PPG), 3rd in total offense (379.2 yards per game), 6th in passing offense (241.0 yards per game), 8th in rushing offense (138.3 yards per game)
Chargers Offense: 20th in scoring offense (21.3 PPG), 24th in total offense (309.5 yards per game), 25th in passing offense (198.1 yards per game), 19th in rushing offense (111.5 yards per game)
Bucs Defense: 22nd in scoring defense (23.8 points allowed per game), 28th in total defense (368.5 yards allowed per game), 30th in passing defense (253.4 yards allowed per game), 11th in rushing defense (115.2 yards allowed per game)
Chargers Defense: 1st in scoring defense (15.9 points allowed per game), 11th in total defense (323.7 yards allowed per game), 8th in passing defense (206.1 yards allowed per game), T-14th in rushing defense (117.6 yards allowed per game)
As of Wednesday, the Chargers were 3-point favorites with the Over/Under set at 45.5 (per Hard Rock Bet).
What Might Decide This Bucs-Chargers Matchup?
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Liam Coen – Photo by: USA Today
First things first for the Bucs offense, Baker Mayfield has to play cleaner football down the stretch. He turned the ball over three times in Sunday’s win over the Raiders after throwing two interceptions in the overtime win against the Panthers in Week 13. Mayfield now has 13 interceptions this season – three more than he had last year and the second-most in the NFL behind Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins. If Tampa Bay is going to win a fourth straight game – and do so against a gritty Chargers defense only allowing a league-low 15.9 points per game – No. 6 has to be better.
Speaking of that tough Chargers defense, they certainly don’t allow a lot of points. A big reason why is that they also lead the league in red zone defense. Opponents are scoring touchdowns on 41.9% of red zone trips against Los Angeles, which is why Tampa Bay needs to maximize what scoring chances it does get on Sunday. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen needs to push the right buttons when his unit gets down inside the 20. Otherwise, it’ll play right into how the Chargers are able to win games.
On defense for Tampa Bay, it’s simply about survival. The Bucs remain very injured, especially in the secondary and especially at the safety position. That’s a tough spot to be in when you’re set to face a quarterback as talented as Justin Herbert. It’ll ultimately come down to how much pressure Todd Bowles is able to get on Herbert. The Chargers have allowed 38 sacks this season, which is the 10th-most in the NFL. If that interior pressure from Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey gets going and Bowles is able to bring some of his famous blitz packages, that could take some of the weight off the banged-up secondary.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert Photo by: USA Today
On the flip side, the Chargers need to do what they can to keep Herbert comfortable, protected and healthy. Of those 38 sacks allowed, 35 have been on Herbert, who was shaken up in Sunday night’s loss to the Chargers. Considering he just had to fight through some pain and will have to turn around and play again four nights after this game against the Bucs, the 26-year-old quarterback will be looking to get the ball out quickly and get out of this game intact – and with a win.
Herbert is a quarterback who doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, so turnovers may be hard to come by for Tampa Bay defense. The Chargers ultimately play clean football as a whole. Herbert has only thrown one interception in 366 pass attempts this year, and Los Angeles only has six giveaways total, which is the lowest in the league. That’s a big reason why Harbaugh’s squad has a +11 turnover differential, which is second-best in the NFL.
Outside of protecting Herbert, though, health will be a big key for the Chargers offense in this game. Their leading receiver is rookie Ladd McConkey, who has 58 catches for 815 yards (14.1 avg.) and four touchdowns this year. He missed Sunday’s loss to the Chiefs, but he did appear to be close to playing. He had three limited practices last week, and his status came down to the wire. Getting him back would be huge for Los Angeles, especially with leading rusher J.K. Dobbins still on injured reserve.
Defensively, the Chargers need to be at their best against the Bucs run game. Finding a way to rein in the likes of Rachaad White and Bucky Irving would help the Los Angeles defense make the Tampa Bay offense one dimensional. There’s still Mike Evans and Cade Otton – as well as an emerging Jalen McMillan – to deal with in that case. But if the Bucs can’t run the ball, that puts more pressure on a struggling Mayfield, who has been more mistake-prone in recent weeks.
Key Players To Watch
Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
With Bucky Irving dealing with a back injury in Week 14, Rachaad White more than stepped up to drive the Buccaneer offense. The third-year back ran 17 times for 90 yards and a touchdown while adding a receiving touchdown as well. Irving has gotten the spotlight during his breakout rookie season, but White is quietly having a great year himself. He’s up to 509 yards on 120 carries and is averaging a career-best 4.2 yards per carry. He also has eight total touchdowns (three rushing, five receiving), making him a key figure on Sunday – especially when Tampa Bay is in the red zone.
Rookie defensive back Tykee Smith made a much-needed return to the field in Week 14 and came up with a crucial interception of Aidan O’Connell to stop what was a 10+ minute drive to open the third quarter. Smith now has two interceptions and three forced fumbles this year, tying for the team lead in both categories. Against a Chargers offense that doesn’t turn the ball over, Smith may be the Bucs’ best bet to create a momentum-changing takeaway.
Ladd McConkey has been the key to the Los Angeles offense this year, even as a rookie. He has 815 receiving yards to lead the team, with Joshua Palmer next at 492 yards. His 58 catches also lead the team, with Palmer’s 30 being the next-closest. So, the rookie out of Georgia has been huge for Justin Herbert, and he was sorely missed in the Chargers’ loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. If he can return to action against the Bucs and their 30th-ranked pass defense, he may be the main factor in the L.A. offense.
Chargers OLB Khalil Mack – Photo by: USA Today
Khalil Mack is still a problem at the age of 33. The Chargers defense is full of talent, and he’s not even the group’s leading sacker. But he still has five over 12 games and has seven passes defensed and two forced fumbles to go along with them. His 85.0 PFF pass rush grade remains top-15 in the league and is the best mark on the Los Angeles defense. He has 39 pressures and will be a big challenge for the Bucs and their offensive tackles on Sunday.
Bucs at Chargers Game Information
When: Sunday, December 15
Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: FOX – Adam Amin (Play by Play), Mark Sanchez (Analyst), Kristina Pink (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst), Santiago Gramática (Reporter)
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