The New York Giants are coming off of their best defensive performance of the year in Week 14, only to face one of the best offenses in the entire NFL in the Baltimore Ravens.
The Giants fielded a no-name defense against the New Orleans Saints, and they largely performed incredibly well. Granted, the Saints are an injured, flawed, and generally bad team in their own right. But you can only play the team in front of you, and the Giants’ defense acquitted itself well.
But the Ravens are another animal entirely, fielding one of the best running and passing attacks in the NFL.
The Giants are heavy underdogs at home to the point where the Ravens are 16-point favorites on the road. Can their defense keep this game close enough to avoid an absolute blowout?
Stats that matter
Can the Giants slow Baltimore’s running game?
The Ravens have the second-best rushing offense in the NFL this year. That the Ravens are excellent on the ground isn’t news: They’ve been one of the most dangerous and efficient running teams for years now.
But for the first time since 2019, Lamar Jackson isn’t the Ravens’ leading rusher. That honor belongs to veteran running back Derrick Henry, who is having one of the best years of his career in his age 30 season.
Henry’s great year is a confluence of several factors. First and foremost, he’s on the same offense as Jackson, which forces defenses to account for both the pass and the QB scramble in a way that Henry hasn’t enjoyed since the Tennessee Titans had both Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown. Likewise, the Ravens have one off the very best run blocking offensive lines in the NFL — they currently rank third in run block win rates, behind only the Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs. Likewise, the proliferation of Cover 4 defenses to account for spread offenses has lead to an increase in rushing efficiency league-wide.
However, Henry himself provides a dangerous contrast to Jackson’s athleticism and is one of the toughest runners to bring down in the NFL.
The Ravens use a predictably diverse and varied rushing attack. They’re primarily a zone-based team, and Henry is primarily an I-formation runner. He still has good speed once he gets going, but Henry has always been a runner who needs a runway.
The Ravens use a variety of blocking schemes — not just outside zone, but also man-gap, counter, and pin-and-pull schemes. Their goal is to allow Henry to hit the line of scrimmage at speed, while also preserving his ability to use his vision to pick out running lanes and find space. He’s renowned for his ability to break tackles, punish defenses, and pick up yards after contact. However, Ravens aren’t interested in simply slamming him into the back of the offensive line every play.
That said, the Giants can’t ignore Henry when the Ravens line up in the shotgun formation. his two biggest runs against the Eagles came from the shotgun. On those plays the Eagles were clearly keying on the pass, using light tackle boxes to allow for more defenders in coverage.
The Giants lost Dexter Lawrence against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but their no-name defensive line played the teams’ best game of the year against the New Orleans Saints. They played with great gap discipline, while unheralded players like Elijah Chatman and Elijah Garcia disrupted behind the line of scrimmage. Micah McFadden, meanwhile, had the game of his career and was seemingly everywhere for five tackles for a loss.
They will not only need to bring that level of discipline and physicality against the Ravens to have a prayer of slowing down Henry, but also need to swarm to the ball.
The Lamar Jackson effect
For all the attention that Henry has gotten, and will get, Jackson is the difference maker in this offense.
Yes, Henry is a great running back. Yes, Baltimore’s offensive line is one of the best in the NFL. Yes, their tight ends are able to attack defense’s in ways in which most aren’t able to easily counter. However, Jackson is a two-time MVP for a reason, and he is one of the toughest quarterbacks to defend in the NFL.
Jackson isn’t just a great runner or a great passer, he’s great at both and has developed such that both areas of his skill set build off the other.
Though the Ravens lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, their first play of the game illustrates just what kind of threat Jackson poses.
We’ll start with just a still image:
The play started with Jackson under center and Henry behind him in an I formation and a bunch formation on the offensive right. This is at the top of Jackson’s drop after the run-action fake and he’s surveying the field.
Just looking at this picture, it looks for all the world like a broken play and a sack to start the game. The Eagles have wins across the line of scrimmage, while everyone is covered down the field. Jackson doesn’t have anywhere to go, no options downfield, and at best he should be throwing the ball away.
Instead, the play goes for 40 yards.
Obviously, Jackson is always a threat to run — and not just on read-option or designed quarterback runs. He’s able to force the defense to play true 11-on-11 football and make them pay for devoting too many resources to defending any one skill position player.
He’s also able to make any defense pay for turning the back on him or playing undisciplined football up front.
This is another play-action pass attempt from under center and an (offset) I formation. This time, Jackson is looking deep down the field to the two routes on the top of the screen. However, the Eagles cover those routes well and Jackson is forced to look elsewhere. Both the running back and H-back release into routes, providing options for Jackson — but those options also draw defenders.
Here, however, the Eagles’ coverage design — and Ravens’ play design — creates a third option for Jackson after his initial reads and check-down options fail to materialize. Their coverage rolls toward the deep routes, while the second level defenders cover the players who release. The in-breaking route from the H-back pulls the defenders away from the right sideline, creating a massive void for Jackson. The Eagles lose any semblance of contain on the offensive left, which Jackson exploits for the scramble.
This highlights the necessity for the Giants to keep contain on the edges in this game. They can’t pin their ears back and rush Jackson — he’s too athletic and any pressure that fails to get home will likely result in a first down. That would likely cut down on their sack production unless the Giants are also able to get interior pressure with athletic defenders like Elijah Chatman or Micah McFadden.
Unfortunately, containing Jackson as a runner means that you still have to deal with him as a passer. And that stress is why he is such a problem for teams.
The Eagles play more disciplined defense this time around, with their edge defenders keeping contain while also not over-running the level of the quarterback. Their secondary is in Vic Fangio’s customary quarters coverage and they do a good job of picking up most of the Ravens’ receivers. However, nobody is there to pick up wide receiver Zay Flowers when he’s passed off by the corner on the defensive left.
Jackson recognizes the void in the coverage created by the shallow crossing route and uses his eyes to influence the deep defenders toward the bottom of the screen. He then immediately starts his throwing motion as the second year receiver starts his break. The ball arrives just as Flowers settles into the void and he makes the catch.
Teams have been able to slow Jackson in the past because receiver has been the weakness of the Ravens’ offense. However, the development of Flowers and TE Isaiah Likely — as well as the continued presence of Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Nelson Agholor — have allowed Jackson to truly force defenses to pick their poison. The result has been one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and each of the Ravens’ five primary receiving options are averaging at least 11.4 yards per catch.
The Giants did a fantastic job of holding the Saints’ offense in check, but even outside of the supporting casts, there’s a world of difference between Derek Carr and Lamar Jackson.