Arsenal can forget about lifting their first Premier League title in 21 years if they suffer a shock home loss to Everton on Sunday, Gunners expert Charles Watts has told Sports Mole.
Mikel Arteta's men were riding high on a three-game top-flight winning run before last weekend's London derby with Fulham, where they were brought crashing back down to earth in a 1-1 draw with the Cottagers.
Arsenal's stalemate in the capital meant that they failed to make the move of Liverpool and Everton's Merseyside derby being postponed, and they now sit six points below the Reds in the Premier League table having played a game more than Arne Slot's side.
The derby delay means that the Toffees will also be well-rested after their 4-0 thrashing of Wolverhampton Wanderers on December 4, and if Sean Dyche's men can spring an Emirates surprise, Watts cannot see any way back for Arsenal in the title race.
"You can't be dropping points at home to Everton," Watts said. "Everton are going to be well rested. They're not going to have played for about two weeks, Arsenal have played about four fixtures in that time. So you would think that they're going to look fresh and energetic. They're coming into it on the back of a four nil win as well, so confidence-wise, they're probably at their highest point they've been all season.
"But yeah, Arsenal have to win this game. You can't be dropping points in successive games, especially not at home to Everton. So it is an absolute must on Saturday that they get back to winning ways and win this game. And I'm very confident that they will. I don't think they were terrible at Fulham, they should have won that game. They didn't, but I really think they'll win this game against Everton.
'Curtains for Arsenal if they lose to Everton'
"It would be an absolute hammer blow. It'd be curtains really. If you lose this game, if you drop five points in six building up to Christmas, I think that would be curtains for Arsenal. So it is absolutely essential they get three points at the weekend."
Arsenal are searching for a 103rd top-flight win over Everton in Saturday's encounter in North London, and their current total of 102 is the most that any team has beaten a particular opponent in the history of the top division.
Arteta's men have also won each of their last three matches against Everton after falling to defeat in four of their five previous contests before that sequence began, but there is a chance that the Gunners could be beaten at their own game this weekend.
While Arsenal have scored from a corner in each of their last three Premier League games, eight of Everton's 14 top-flight goals this season have come from set-pieces, and Watts is concerned that a defence-minded Dyche unit could catch Arsenal cold from a dead-ball situation.
"We know what it's going to be," Watts added. "It's going to be another afternoon when you're coming up against a team who are going to play in a very low block, who are going to look to keep things very, very tight. Maybe score from a set piece, because as good as Arsenal have been scoring from set pieces, they have been conceding from as well. We know that's the strength of Everton.
"So I imagine it's going to be a pretty frustrating afternoon. I don't see it being a very entertaining, thrilling game against this Everton side. Arsenal are going to have to stay patient, try and grind them down. They might have to score from a set piece again, if needs be, and just to get themselves ahead.
"An early goal would be big for Arsenal in this one, put Everton's game plan out the window a little bit, and it should be a much more comfortable afternoon's work."
Why Arsenal are not getting "the rub of the green" this season
Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta pictured on November 26, 2024© Imago
Arsenal boss Arteta has provided a positive team news update ahead of the visit of Everton, as Gabriel Magalhaes has taken part in training after missing three games with an injury and is pushing to reform his much-commended partnership with William Saliba.
However, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Riccardo Calafiori, Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu remain absent for the Gunners, who had to put out their ninth different backline of the Premier League season against Fulham due to their defensive crisis.
Coupled with needless red cards for delaying restarts and Bukayo Saka being disallowed a winner at Fulham due to Gabriel Martinelli being marginally offside, Watts argues that the "rub of the green" has not been going Arteta's way this season.
"I'm not using this as an excuse, I don't want to use the word luck because I don't think luck really comes into it, but they've not really had the rub of the green Arsenal this season in an awful lot of things," Watts added. "Fine margins, small decisions, the sendings-off for kicking the ball away, which you've not seen anyone else get red cards for and I doubt we'll ever see anyone get red cards for it again, apart from that one-week period when Arsenal lost two and they were winning both those games, they end up dropping points in both of them.
"Just little things like that, the offside goal. It was offside, it was silly from Martinelli, but it just feels like the real fine margins are going against Arsenal this season. And when I look at where they are on the table, and I think where they could be, had things just slightly gone in their way in the big moments this season, it would be a completely different story. And this one, it does feel like it's gone against them a bit in terms of how prepared Everton are going to be for this game."
Arsenal's showdown with Everton also sees Arteta reunite with the team he made 209 appearances for between 2005 and 2011, a time when the Toffees were consistently challenging for Champions League football, but Dyche's men start the gameweek in a lowly 15th place in the table.
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