Premier League Preview: Wolverhampton Wanderers
Written by ad_wilkin on Friday, 13th Dec 2024 19:38
I’ve refused to use the term must win in recent times but Town’s situation is getting trickier and trickier with still only one win on the board so far. A trip to Wolverhampton Wanderers, who have conceded by far the most goals in the league with 38, could be just the fixture that Town need to turn things around after three straight defeats.
Wolves are also on their own run of three straight defeats and sit 19th in the table, level on points with Town but with a lower goal difference by two.
Manager Gary O’Neil is likely to still be in charge for the game but the relationship between him and supporters is strained. The same can be said of the supporters' relationship with the ownership with potential protests on Saturday. An early Town goal could really turn the home fans.
Jose Sa is having a horrendous season. His –7.48 goals prevented is the lowest in the league and poor performances against Bournemouth, where he conceded two penalties and Everton where he was weak in the air are likely to put his position under threat, which is a stark contrast from last season where he saved Wolves points on numerous occasions.
Former West Brom and Crystal Palace keeper Sam Johnstone is the back-up keeper waiting in the wings. Wolves spent a minor fee on him in the summer which is unusual for a second choice.
He started five games at the start of the season but Sa has been chosen since. A goalkeeping conundrum is never ideal as Town are currently well aware of. Johnstone came in against West Ham so O’Neil looks to have bitten the bullet and rotated once again.
Experienced keepers Dan Bentley and Tom King are also in the squad.
O’Neil has swapped between a back four and a back five in a bid to find a solution to stop them leaking goals. So far it doesn’t seem to have been found. Craig Dawson and Toti Gomes have been the most common starters.
Dawson, 34, suffered the ignominy of scoring two own goals in the 4-0 defeat to Everton, whilst Gomes has started 11 games so far and provides some left-footed balance, sometimes even filling in at left-back.
Mario Lemina has also been a surprise centre-back on occasions. The Gabon international has been one of Wolves' best players and does bring a bit of mobility in there, whilst also being able to step up into midfield, so it could be a solution despite him not being a natural defender.
It does mean that you’re missing his aggressive tackling further forwards though. He’s made 41 tackles and 26 interceptions so far this season.
Uruguayan Santiago Bueno has also played in there as a right-sided centre-back most of the time, despite naturally being a right-back.
Twenty-three-year-old Yerson Mosquera was an option in there but was ruled out for the rest of the season in September, whilst Irishman Matt Doherty, who is back at the club following a spell at Tottenham, can also fill in at centre-back if necessary whilst also being able to play wing-back.
If they’re poorly stocked at centre-half, wing-back is where they have some of their best and most consistent performers in Nelson Semedo and Rayan Ait-Nouri. Semedo has been at the club since 2020 and has notched up 142 Premier League appearances. He’s athletic and provides threat going forward whilst also being a solid Premier League defender.
Ait-Nouri is still only 23 years old and has slowly been getting better and better. He’s now a big attacking outlet for Wolves and has three goals and two assists drifting in from the left-hand side. The Algerian international also doesn’t shy away from the defensive side with 34 tackles and 12 interceptions.
We’ve mentioned Lemina as part of the defenders but the other midfield stalwart so far has been Joao Gomes. The 23-year-old Brazilian was a January 2023 signing from Flamengo and since joining he’s become a regular, barely missing a game.
He reads the game well and isn’t afraid to get stuck in, something that has seen him pick up five yellow cards so far this season. The last one was against West Ham, which means he’ll be suspended for this one.
This means we’re likely to see at least one of the other three options of Andre, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde and Tommy Doyle in there.
Wolves dipped into the Brazilian market once again this summer to pick up Andre from Fluminense. He’s settled in well and has started the last four games, which has allowed Lemina to move into defence but also against West Ham saw Joao Gomes play in a more advanced role.
Bellegarde is one of those versatile players that can play anywhere across the midfield. He’s featured on both left and right wings this season but has also made substitute appearances in the middle of the park in both deeper and more advanced roles. He signed in 2023 after an impressive season for Strasbourg in Ligue 1 but has yet to set the Premier League alight.
Doyle made his loan move from Manchester City permanent in the summer and provides a less defensive role in the midfield than the other options, bringing more creativity and some excellent free-kick-taking ability. He’s struggled for league starts this season but did get an assist in one of his two so far, against Brighton.
Malian Boubacar Traore is also an option in there but has been injured all season.
Whether it’s a front four or a front three at the top there are two players that are first on the team sheet for this Wolves team. Matheus Cuhna and Jorgen Strand Larsen. Cunha has without doubt been Wolves talisman with seven goals and three assists already this season. He’s played off both wings but it’s in his role off the central striker that he enjoys his most freedom, being able to find pockets of space and unleash shots from range.
Three of his seven goals have come from outside the box and every single one has come with his favoured right foot, taking him up to third place in terms of exceeding his xG at 3.7. Only Bryan Mbeumo and Chris Wood are higher. Liam Delap has now dropped to 13th following a few goalless games.
Strand Larsen provides the perfect foil. He strong in the air and can run in behind which creates the space for Cuhna and can also find the back of the net with six goals and two assists. Similar to Cuhna he’s also been clinical exceeding his xG by 2.4 goals.
It’s a surprise that Celta Vigo let him leave on loan, especially considering he netted 13 time in La Liga last season, but with him and Cuhna in the team Wolves certainly have the fire power to cause teams problems and have scored the ninth most goals in the Premier League.
Their form has left Hwang Hee-Chan, Pablo Sarabia and Goncalo Guedes having to settle for making an impact off of the bench with both chipping in with important goals, Sarabia in the 2-0 victory against Southampton and Guedes in the 4-1 victory over Fulham.
The biggest question mark for this one will be around who starts in goal. Aro Muric has now made the most mistakes leading to a goal in the Premier League. Despite that, he is still Town’s top-rated player on Sofascore and has a goals prevented of 1.87. He’s also the best in the league at claiming crosses, stopping 15.3% of balls that have come into his box, something that Kieran McKenna highlighted in his press conference. This is very much a heart or head decision for me.
My gut reaction following the Bournemouth game was it’s time to give Christian Walton a game. He may not be the better keeper but in the Premier League mistakes are costly and he’s more reliable in that sense but my head now says stick with Muric. If he could improve his decision-making, he’d be a top-class keeper and this appears to be the route that McKenna will go down. He also stuck with Vaclav Hladky last season when people were suggesting he should be dropped and that didn’t turn out too badly.
There’s also a decision to be made at right-back and potential switches in midfield. Injury issues seem to be limiting both Jens Cajuste and Kalvin Phillips game time which is a shame as I'd love to see that pairing. Jack Taylor did well against Bournemouth providing more attacking thrust which could be good again against a leaky Wolves backline so it may well be an unchanged midfield.
Up top, Wes Burns and Conor Chaplin have been the two that have seemed to drop in and out the most. If Wolves play with wing-backs it could open up space for Burns, there’s also the possibility that both play with Omari Hutchinson, who is in his first season of Premier League football and has played a lot of games rotating out.
For Wolves, I’ve struggled as there’s been so much rotation in the side. The backline is constantly changing. Semedo pushed to right centre-back against West Ham and Doherty in at wing-back and did well, getting on the scoresheet, so that could continue.
With Joao Gomes suspended, it could be a midfield of Andre and Lemina with Bellegarde, Cuhna and Strand-Larsen in front of them.
This one should be open with both teams having struggled defensively. The problem for Town is that away from home they concede a ton of chances. They have the worst expected goals against in the division at 18.2. The flip side is that Wolves have the third-worst expected goals against at home in the division at 13.6
Going the other way, neither side are great at creating chances either. Town’s xG away from home is 6.4 and Wolves at home is 7.8, both at the bottom end of the division. One of those stats will have to give for this one.
Southampton, Leicester and Wolves are our three realistic targets to fight against to get out of the relegation zone with Palace and West Ham slightly further out of reach. Town haven’t lost to, but also haven’t beaten, Southampton or Leicester so far, so a win here would be very important to survival hopes.
Injury issues and a beleaguered O’Neil still in charge give me hope for this one. I’m going for a 3-2 win
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