Everton and Arsenal - two sides that have not only been not relegated during the Premier League era but also hold the two longest streaks in English football as it concerns the trauma of going down. One of those sides, however, has been much closer than the other in recent years.
Sitting in 15th place, three points would lift the Toffees further above the drop than they currently are positioned, while even a single point for the Blues would likely be considered a minor victory; it would be, equally, another big blow for Arsenal’s title hopes to come away with anything less than all three points.
But Everton are coming off of their best match of the season versus Wolves - right after one of their worst showings in the prior get together with Manchester United; the final Merseyside Derby of Goodison Park’s illustrious history was postponed due to storm, and so with all of the passion and energy still bottled, the Toffees find themselves in north London for a showdown with a positive side facing some questions of their own.
Who is healthy enough to play for Arsenal? Who will the Blues be facing when they take the pitch at the Emirates, a ground where they have had a miserable record for some decades now.
Ahead of Saturday’s affair, we spoke to Aaron Lerner, writer for SB Nation’s Arsenal blog, The Short Fuse:
RBM: First off, how are Arsenal and their supporters feeling at this point in the season; the team has looked less dominant at points than in years past, but is still very much in the hunt for trophies. What are the vibes?
TSF: I think the best thing to do would be to point you to my next answer. But to give you the short answer (because the next one is anything but short) - the vibes are mostly fine. Annoyed with how it’s gone so far but cautiously optimistic because things are trending in the right direction.
RBM: Let’s talk about the current race in the Premier League; what do the fans think, and what about Europe?
TSF: For the most part, the fans have been quite reasonable. There seems to be a growing understanding that things haven’t gone Arsenal’s way this season - injuries, bad bounces, extremely questionable referee decisions - and that the current table position is mostly due to factors outside the team’s control. Even though the margins in the table are razor thin, I could also do without the dissection of every single dropped point and everything becoming a referendum on players and the manager. I don’t think that is a uniquely Arsenal problem.
It’s just been bad luck and negative variance. It feels like if it could go wrong, it has. Arsenal have gotten footballed this season, but not in a good way. The two second yellows for delaying the restart are unique to Arsenal in the Premier League this season. Other close calls haven’t gone their way. They’ve had a cluster of injuries on defense. Nobody at the club could replicate what Martin Ødegaard does while he was out with injury (and it would be ridiculous to expect anybody to be able to do so). I think Arsenal are good enough to overcome one, maybe two of those things in isolation, but all of them happening together has been a bit too much and has kept the club from the heights we know they’re capable of reaching. I think that is where most of the frustration comes from - Arsenal just can’t seem to catch a break, and that’s keeping them from getting to where they could be.
Every club has to deal with bad luck, bad calls, and unfortunate injuries. It just feels as if Arsenal have had more than their fair share so far this season. Maybe it just feels that way from the inside and looks different if you aren’t an Arsenal supporter. But you asked for fan sentiment and I’m trying my best to describe how it feels from where I’m sitting. We’re frustrated to varying degrees. I think, generally, Arsenal fans believe in the manager and the players and are also a bit annoyed about how the things Arsenal doesn’t control have gone.
I’d stress that you won’t hear any of this sort of stuff from Mikel Arteta, the players, or the club. They’re focused on what they can do on the pitch and what they can control. They’ve kept their heads down, rolled their sleeves up, and said, “right, what can we do with what we’ve got available right now to get results.” Now more than ever, I think this bunch of players have a pretty good idea of the work and struggle that goes into winning. For example, Ben White played through whatever injury issue his recent surgery corrected until he just couldn’t anymore. People make light of Bukayo Saka limping off at the end of matches, but it’s because he gets fouled about as frequently as any player in the league and takes it in stride. Declan Rice was playing/is playing through a broken toe. The (losing) battles with Manchester City have taught them that nothing is given. You have to go out, fight for it, and earn it, and that’s what they are trying to do. They’re battling as best they can, albeit with one hand tied behind their back because of all the bad luck.
The frustration we’re feeling isn’t helped by the fact that things seem to be breaking Liverpool’s way. These are the kind of breaks we yearned for two seasons in a row. We hoped in vain for a City stumble as they improbably racked up win after win down the stretch. Now that City have stumbled - big time - Liverpool look to be the beneficiaries because Arsenal have their own set of struggles this year.
Liverpool faced Manchester City after they’d completely collapsed compared to Arsenal having to play with ten men against a City side that still knew how to play football. Liverpool faced Arsenal at the Emirates without Martin Ødegaard and William Saliba. The goal that earned them the draw came with all-everything talent Mo Salah running at an Arsenal backline of Thomas Partey (a midfielder) - Ben White (who hasn’t played CB in 1.5 seasons) - Jakub Kiwior (a backup) - Myles Lewis-Skelly (an 18-year old in his second PL appearance). Just think for a second about how many things have to go wrong for it to come to that! For what it’s worth, it also gives me the slightest bit of hope. That’s what it took for Liverpool to get a draw against Arsenal. The Gunners were convincingly better than the Reds that night.
Now, if I were being reasonable, I’d point out that Liverpool had several of their own seasons where, by rights, they should have won the Premier League but for Manchester City, a team built in a way that has garnered more than 115 charges of financial impropriety, finishing ahead of them. That it seems fair that Liverpool get another bite at the apple. But I don’t care much about fairness to Liverpool, and I’d reckon that you lot don’t care much about it, either. They’ve got one of the older rosters in the Premier League, and somehow, they’ve avoided injury to their star players (no, Diogo Jota doesn’t count) and clusters of injuries that have forced midfielders to play fullback and guys to play on the wrong side of the pitch. It’s extremely annoying and endlessly frustrating.
Apologies for the venting/ranting. As I’ve said a few times, it’s just been one of those seasons for Arsenal. I think they’re the best team in the Premier League but, for all the reasons detailed above, have been kept from showing it. It really felt like this should and would be their year, but it doesn’t look like it will be. Everything had been building towards this moment, to go toe-to-toe with Manchester City and Liverpool and beat them! The matches against those two are a microcosm of the season. Arsenal were the better team and something else (Leandro Trossard’s second yellow against City, Arsenal’s absences against Liverpool) held the Gunners back. It’s just super frustrating because it feels like so much of it is out of Arsenal’s control. That’s sport, I guess.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m still enjoying the ride. This is a likable bunch of players (with one massive, notable exception - just be rid of him already) that are easy to root for. Arsenal are so much better off now than they were a few seasons ago when Unai Emery was in charge and when they finished outside Europe under Mikel Arteta. They’re even better than they were in the late Arsene Wenger years. I’m happy and grateful for that. Given those lean years, at least when compared to the peak Wenger seasons, I won’t take it for granted that Arsenal are back battling at the very top.
We’ve still got an outside shot at the Premier League, and we’re in three cup competitions. Things could easily be much, much worse. I’m quite cognizant that “my club is just off the top” is very much a first-world football problem. As long as the club don’t do anything stupid and rash, they’ll get to the summit at some point in the next couple of years. The waiting part stinks, but I’m enjoying Arsenal being in the mix, even with the pain that comes from not quite getting there yet.
Arsenal FC v Everton FC - Premier League Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images
RBM: What is this team doing well this year when they’re at their best, and what are they doing poorly at their worst?
TSF: It’s a bit narrative-y for my taste, but you can’t talk about Arsenal without talking about the set pieces. Arsenal are the best team in the Premier League and probably the world on them. Without looking at the numbers, I’d wager they’re among the best ever, at least at the current clip. Arsenal have racked up a bunch of different statistical markers and records from corners over the last 2+ seasons and are showing no signs of slowing down. The ability to turn almost every corner into a high-danger chance and to score so often from set pieces has really helped Arsenal weather all the bad luck that has come their way to start this season.
And the players love it, too. They’ll jokingly complain about how much they have to work at them during training, but they revel in the fact that so many people are getting their knickers in a twist about Arsenal being good from corners. I think it was Martin Ødegaard who recently remarked how funny he found it that people were upset with Arsenal for scoring a bunch of goals from dead balls. They count the same, folks!
Before you get carried away naming Arsenal the new Stoke, since the start of last season, Arsenal have scored 25% of their goals from set pieces. From 2008-2013, Tony Pulis’ side scored a whopping 43.1% of their goals from the dead ball. The takeaway here is that Arsenal are still pretty darn good from open play, too. Somebody recently suggested that the Arsenal wingers, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli, attack in such a way as to win corners. Please, I’m begging opposing teams - show those two to the inside instead of around the outside. Try really hard to not concede corners to Arsenal. Let’s see how allowing Saka and Martinelli space in the middle works out.
Arsenal can struggle to create from open play, particularly against mid-blocks. That’s not new this season, either. It’s been a known issue for a while and is one of the big reasons why the club needs another dynamic, attacking threat (which I think they’ll look to sign in the summer). When things aren’t working / the opposition is staying in their shape, the Gunners can struggle to get touches in central areas and don’t get enough bodies into the box. Things get static and stagnant. Players don’t make runs in behind the defense to pull them out of position and the passing goes from one side, around the back, and out to the other, without creating any threat.
Some of the open play struggles are down to the injuries at fullback. Mikel Arteta’s system relies heavily on the fullbacks to contribute down the attacking end of the pitch. Usually, the left fullback tucks into midfield as a progressive, penetrative passer, and the right fullback plays a more advanced role, creating passing triangles with Saka and Ødegaard and overlapping, both to deliver cutbacks and to draw defenders away from the attackers on that side. It’s fair to ask whether the system itself isn’t partly to blame for the rash of fullback injuries. It is possible that they’re being asked to do too much, and the injuries are a result of overexertion/fatigue.
Arsenal also aren’t as good defensively this season as they were last year. The numbers bear it out to an extent, but it’s moreso a vibes thing. They don’t feel as secure. You don’t feel as confident watching them that they’re not going to concede a goal here and there. It’s a bit of a strange thing to say about the second-best defense in the Premier League on goals allowed, but I’m just calling it how I see/feel it. You don’t have to look far for the explanation - it’s coming in the next answer.
Everton FC v Arsenal FC - Premier League Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images
RBM: How is this team coping with injury after injury?
TSF: Are they coping with injury after injury? I’m not sure. It all depends on how you want to look at things. Are they where they are expected to be at this stage of the season? No. Injuries have been the main culprit behind that, so in that sense, they aren’t coping with them too well.
Arsenal have used nine different back-four combinations this season. Two lineups have played four games together each, while the other seven combinations have played together just once.
Since the end of September, Arsenal have only been able to use the same back four in consecutive matches once. All that chopping and changing at the back, particularly in a system that asks so much of the fullbacks, is not conducive to sustained success. Last season, the two centrebacks played all 38 matches, and Ben White played 37.
But if you want to see the glass half full, if Arsenal and Liverpool take the same number of points as last season from their remaining fixtures, I believe Arsenal would win the league by a slim margin. Of course, that’s not how it works but it puts things into perspective. When Martin Ødegaard went down injured, my only hope for Arsenal was that they wouldn’t be completely out of it and facing a lost season by the time he got back. They’ve managed that, more or less.
The way they managed, how they’ve coped with the injuries, is mostly that they’re a really good team with great players. Individuals have stepped up their performances to make up for what has been lacking from a cohesion standpoint because of all the injuries. David Raya has made some big saves. Gabriel, until he got hurt, was having a tremendous season. William Saliba has stepped up his play after admitting earlier in the season that he was a bit worn down. Declan Rice seems to have recovered from / found a way to manage his broken toe and looks much more the midfield-dominating player he was last season. Bukayo Saka has taken his game to an even higher level and carried the attack (more on him later).
Add manufacturing goals from set pieces to that individual brilliance, and you’ve got enough to scrape together results and at least remain in the conversation.
RBM: What are the expectations for Arsenal this season across all competitions?
TSF: I don’t think the expectations for the team have changed much from last season - they aspire to win trophies. It’s not silverware or bust, either. Mikel Arteta hasn’t made any excuses for Arsenal’s current position in the table. He, the players, and the club believe they can succeed despite the injuries, but as I said earlier, there is a reasonable understanding that they are where they are right now because of factors beyond their control.
Winning the Premier League from the current position, 6 points adrift of Liverpool, who have a game in hand, is a tall order and unlikely. But stranger things have happened. Manchester City went on a ridiculous run to snatch the title away from Arsenal last season. This Arsenal side is certainly good enough to go on a similar run if things like injuries break their way. This might be cope on my part, but I just don’t think Liverpool will keep up their current pace. They’re a good side, don’t get me wrong. But I don’t think they’re a 95-point side, which is their current pace. That would make them the best PL team on points since they won the title in ‘19-’20 with 99 points. They’re not 4 points better than Manchester City last season, nor are they 6 points better than Arsenal last season. Speaking of last season, remember how everybody kept trying to put them in the title conversation in December and January? How’d that turn out? Liverpool are much closer to that team than they are to the truly great Premier League winners in recent years. Again, Liverpool are the most likely winners right now (like, mathematically), and their current points haul will keep them in the conversation much longer than last season, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if, at some point in the spring, they aren’t atop the table.
It’s much more likely that the Gunners win one of the domestic competitions. Arsenal are good enough to beat anybody in England in a one-off match. They face Crystal Palace midweek in the quarterfinals of the Carabao Cup. They’ve got Manchester United in the FA Cup in January. You’d favor them to advance in both competitions. Sidenote: Liverpool in the 3rd round last season, Manchester City in the 4th round two seasons ago - the FA Cup draw has not been kind to Arsenal of late.
As for the Champions League, they’ve got a shot. They’re among the betting favorites to win the competition. With the 3-0 win over Monaco midweek, Arsenal are in a great position to finish in a Top 8 spot in the league phase table and avoid the additional play-in tie for the knockout stages. The good thing (and bad thing) is that when you get to knockout football, anything can happen. Arsenal are a really good team and their defense should keep them in any tie. Right now, the attack isn’t quite where it needs to be to feel confident about a deep Champions League run, but it is showing signs of life. If Arsenal starts scoring closer to how they did last spring, as we know they’re capable of doing when things are firing, then why not? The best way to put it is that they’re good enough to win the Champions League - there is no team in Europe that Arsenal can’t beat on any given day. That doesn’t mean they’re going to do it, but if they manage it, would you be surprised?
Everton FC v Arsenal FC - Premier League Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images
RBM: Should this side be in the mood to spend more in January, what and who might they be looking for?
TSF: I’ll start by saying that I don’t expect Arsenal to do much business in January. Historically, the club have not been big spenders in the winter window. I’m not sure that it necessarily makes much of a difference, but right now, the club has Jason Ayto, a long-time club analyst, scout, and assistant sporting director under Edu, serving as the interim sporting director while the club conducts a search for Edu’s permanent replacement. That might (or might not) complicate things. Mikel Arteta recently said that Ayto has everyone’s full-backing, and his interim title won’t change the club’s January business.
Should the Gunners dip into the market, it’ll be for another attacking threat. Most people think they need a true striker, but I think their sights are wider. I think they’d be happy to bring in a dynamic left winger, as well. Gabriel Martinelli’s development has stagnated a bit and could do with somebody to really push him for playing time. Raheem Sterling hasn’t contributed much at all. Leandro Trossard is a winger who likes to come inside rather than stay wide.
As for who they might target, your guess is as good as mine. I think the club was seriously interested in Benjamin Sesko before he signed a new deal with RB Leipzig. Nico Williams’ name was thrown around a good bit, but he was too expensive, particularly his wages, and that hasn’t changed. The same goes for Victor Osimhen — a bunch of links but the numbers didn’t work. You can run down the list of attacking players linked with transfers and connect any of them to Arsenal, but it’s tough to know for whom the interest is genuine. The move for Declan Rice aside, because everybody knew that one was coming, Arsenal have played their transfer cards close to their chest.
Mikel Arteta probably wants another defender, too. I’m mostly joking, but given Arsenal’s defensive injuries and Arteta’s penchant for buying fullbacks, you can never be too sure.
RBM: Who can you see giving Everton some trouble on Saturday in the capital, and how might the Gunners line up against Everton as the Toffees travel down to London?
TSF: It feels like a cop-out, but the answer is Bukayo Saka. He’s been magnificent this season. He has 21 goal involvements in 21 matches in all competitions this season, the second-most of any Premier League player behind only Mo Salah.
Cole Palmer (15) has more Premier League goal involvements than Saka (14), but the Arsenal man has more in all competitions. Saka carried the attack during the 12 matches that Martin Ødegaard was out injured. He would likely have a couple more goals/assists had the Arsenal captain not missed an extended period. The two of them are as good as any attacking duo in the world and are even more difficult to defend, with Jurrien Timber playing RB.
With all the injuries to Arsenal defenders, including Timber himself, Thomas Partey has spent some time at RB. He’s been mostly fine playing out of position, but he doesn’t get into the attack from RB in the same way that Timber (or Ben White, who is out until mid-January-ish) does. That’s the scary part for other clubs. For how good Bukayo Saka has been, he’s probably got even more to give.
As for the Arsenal lineup, it’s as much an exercise in figuring out who is fit and who isn’t as anything else. My guess is: Raya, Kiwior, Gabriel, Saliba, Timber, Partey, Rice, Ødegaard, Martinelli, Saka, Havertz
RBM: Finally, what’s your prediction for Saturday’s match?
TSF: 2-0 to Arsenal. Notwithstanding the 5-1 and 4-0 matches in the last few years, it always feels like Everton play Arsenal tough, but I think this is a difficult time to be facing the Gunners. Since the November international break, they’ve scored 19 and conceded 4 in 6 matches in all competitions. It feels like things might be starting to click again.
Our thanks to Aaron for his time.