On Saturday evening, Aston Villa will make the relatively short 48-mile journey east to take on Midlands rivals Nottingham Forest at the City Ground.
The Villans have lost just one of their last eight meetings with the Garibaldi Reds, also beaten in only one of their previous 11 encounters in the Premier League, albeit this solitary defeat did come on the banks of the River Trent last season, thereby seeking to avoid successive defeats at the City Ground for the first time since 1989.
Aston-Villa-Duran-Rogers-Ramsey
Unai Emery's team come into this clash following three successive victories, having been winless in eight across all competitions beforehand, moving back up to sixth in the Premier League, while also sitting pretty in fifth in the gigantic Champions League table.
However, ahead of Saturday's trip to Nottingham, Emery has a big decision to make: who should he start up front?
Ollie Watkins' season so far
Last season, Ollie Watkins was unquestionably one of the best forwards anywhere across Europe, scoring 27 goals in all competitions, while only Erling Braut Håland, Cole Palmer and Alexander Isak managed more than his 19 Premier League goals.
This earned Watkins a place in Gareth Southgate's Euro squad, where he was used sparingly, but did become a national hero thanks to his last-gasp winner against the Netherlands in the semi-finals.
However, potentially feeling the after-effects of an energy-sapping summer, Watkins has not lived up to his own sky-high expectations this time round, scoring just seven times so far this season, netting only twice across his last 11 outings.
So how do Watkins' stats from this current campaign compare to the last?
Ollie Watkins 23/24 vs 24/25 comparison
Statistic
Appearances
Minutes
Goals
Goals per 90
Assists
Assists per 90
Shots
Shots per 90
Shots on target %
Goal-creating actions
Goal-creating actions per 90
All statistics courtesy of FBref.
As made clear by the table, Watkins' numbers are down for almost every attacking metric per 90, having more shots but fewer of which are on target, while his goals-per-90 figure has suffered a statistically significant decrease.
Last weekend against Southampton, Watkins began a Premier League match on the bench for the first time this season - while there are also concerns over his fitness - so could it be time for Unai Emery to unleash his other centre-forward option on a more regular basis?
Time for Jhon Durán to start
Since coming close to leaving Aston Villa in the summer, on the cusp of a move to West Ham United before a last minute U-turn, Jhon Durán has enjoyed quite a remarkable campaign.
On the opening day of the season, the Colombian came off the bench to bag a late winner against West Ham, of all teams, earning quite the reputation for being a super-sub, on target as a substitute with winners against Leicester, Everton, Wolves and, most memorably of all, Bayern Munich, all before mid-September.
This outrageous thunderbolt against RB Leipzig on Tuesday took Durán's tally to ten goals for the campaign already, despite having started only four matches, two of which have come in the EFL Cup, marking all four starts with a goal.
So how do Villa's two centre-forward options compare this season?
Ollie Watkins vs Jhon Durán 24/25 comparison (PL & UCL)
Statistic
Appearances
Starts
Minutes
Goals
Goals per 90 minutes
Expected goals
Expected goals per 90
Shots
Shots on target %
All statistics courtesy of FBref.com
Across almost all metrics, despite having played significantly fewer minutes, Durán has been outperforming Watkins.
Given that the Colombian averages 1.15 goals per game, had he played the same number of minutes as the Englishman, he would have 19 goals to his name across the Premier League and Champions League.
Villa-Watkins-Duran-Emery-Premier-League
Having netted against Bayern Munich, Bologna and now RB Leipzig during the league phase, as noted by Aston Villa Statto on Bluesky, Durán has the second-best goals-per-90 strike rate of any player in the Champions League this season, behind only Robert Lewandowski, who isn't bad is he?
A year ago, while he was still at Villa, the now departed Douglas Luiz described Watkins as "the best player in the squad", but now might be the time for Emery to take his number 11 out of the side, to see if Durán can maintain his record of having scored every single time he's started so far this season.
Watkins Emery Related
[As well as Watkins: 5/10 Aston Villa man showed he's "regressed" vs Leipzig](https://www.footballfancast.com/as-well-as-ollie-watkins-aston-villa-star-emiliano-martinez-regressed/ "As well as Watkins: 5/10 Aston Villa man showed he's "regressed" vs Leipzig")
Unai Emery will be concerned by the performances of this Aston Villa star recently.