Everton return to action this afternoon, following an extended absence due to the postponement of the Merseyside derby. Sean Dyche will have had mixed emotions, seeing as the club would have entered that match fresh off their biggest win of the season: a 4-0 hammering of Wolverhampton Wanderers — but it should also be noted that Liverpool are in imperious form.
If the Blues avoided one potentially arduous encounter last weekend, then the tough games continue apace until the end of the month, with Chelsea and Manchester City lying in wait. First up though, is a trip to the Emirates, where the Toffees will play Arsenal.
Form
The Gunners again pushed eventual Premier League champions City hard last season, but six consecutive wins to conclude the campaign still saw them come up short against an opponent who did not lose a league game after early December. Fans would have expected a renewed effort this term and the club backed Mikel Arteta again in the transfer market, following on from three years of heavy investment in the squad — a spectacular net spend of almost €465. This time, whilst the outlay was significant (€109m), most was recouped via sales (€84m).
Most significant was the action to make permanent the loan of Brentford goalkeeper David Raya for a fee of €31.9m. The other three major additions — Riccardo Calafiori (€45m, Bologna), Mikel Merino (€32m, Real Sociedad) and Raheem Sterling (loan, Chelsea) have so far been less impactful. Defender Calafiori, a standout for Italy during Euro 24 in the summer, has been deployed almost exclusively as a left back, but has underwhelmed. Spanish international midfielder Merino has yet to nail down a starting berth, whereas Sterling has surprisingly struggled for minutes.
The North Londoners called time on a number of players over the summer, bidding farewell to attacking midfielder Emile Smith-Rowe (€31.8m, Fulham), striker Eddie Nketiah (€29.7m, Crystal Palace) and ‘keeper Aaron Ramsdale (€21.4m, Southampton) — raising sizeable funds for each. Several departed on loan deals, most prominently big-money signing Fábio Vieira (Porto), academy product Reiss Nelson (Fulham) and left back Nuno Tavares — who is currently impressing at Lazio.
Arsenal FC v AS Monaco - UEFA Champions League 2024/25 League Phase MD6 Saka puts Arsenal 2-0 against Monaco midweek
Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images
The Gunners started the domestic campaign off in strong form, going unbeaten over the first eight matches - dropping points only to Brighton and Man City, before tasting defeat at Bournemouth. That setback initiated a slump, with them failing to win any of their next three, including a loss to Newcastle United at St. James’ Park. Injuries to key players and a flurry of red card incidents served to disrupt the team’s form. Since, they’d rebounded with three straight league wins, though were held to a 1-1 draw by Fulham last weekend. They await Everton off a resounding 3-0 Champions League win over Monaco on Wednesday and sit third in the EPL table.
Style of Play
Arteta is an acolyte of his former boss, Pep Guardiola, mirroring his fellow Basque’s style, though he’s more orthodox and less inclined to experimentation. Traditionally, he’s been shown to emulate the Man City manager a season behind, such as with the inverted full back concept, though notably he’s retained a false nine approach, rather than trying to sign a orthodox striker, as City did with Erling Haaland. Another shift away this term has been the team’s continued emphasis on set-pieces — not something we’ve ever really seen from Guardiola. Arteta has shifted between his favoured 4-3-3 and a 4-4-2 this season.
Otherwise, Arsenal are quite similar to City, in that they seek to assert dominance of the ball, in a mid-tempo possession-based system, looking to make the pitch as wide as possible and to wear the opponent down with constant probing attacks; which can be as mentally fatiguing as it is physically. Consequently, it is a little surprising to see that they rank only seventh in the division in possession (53.2%) and pass completion (85.6%.). Only 8.6% of their passes go long, however.
The hosts have scored 29 times in the league this term, slightly over their xG (Expected Goals) tally of 25.6. They generate a middling 14.2 efforts on goal per 90 minutes, which ranks eighth in the division. Arsenal heavily favour attacking down their right flank (46%) and are the least likely team in the league to go through the middle (23%). Along with Aston Villa, the Gunners are way ahead of other teams in taking shots from within the six-yard box (18%). They’ve not scored heavily from open play this season, but top the division in goals from set-piece scenarios, with eight.
Fulham FC v Arsenal FC - Premier League The Gunners go close with another set-piece delivery against Fulham at the weekend
Photo by Crystal Pix/MB Media/Getty Images
Arsenal are ranked the second-best defence in the league so far, having conceded 15 times — in-line with an xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) statistic of 14.2. They permit 11.8 shots per 90 on their net, ranking sixth. Today’s hosts concede the second-fewest goals from general play (seven), but their own set-piece defending has been middling at best, with five goals allowed.
Player Assessment
A major reason for Arsenal’s lop-sided attack has been the form of Bukayo Saka. The right winger is performing at the highest level, with 15 goal contributions in the league this term. A multi-dimensional threat, the 23-year-old leads the side in both key passes (3.05) and completed crosses into the opposition area (0.63) per 90, as well as SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) — an impressive 6.47. He’s also successful with 40.9% of his 5.16 attempted dribbles and carries the ball into the opponent’s penalty area 2.66 times per game.
The return from injury of Arsenal captain Martin Ødegaard has been a major shot in the arm for the hosts. The playmaker has forged an intuitive understanding with Saka. He’s just behind his teammate in both key passes (2.97) and SCA (5.29) per 90.
Solution
This fixture has proved an unprofitable one for Everton for many years and figures to be so gain this afternoon. The Gunners have won the last three against Dyche’s side - following that shock 1-0 win at Goodison Park, in what was the Everton manager’s debut at the club - including a 4-0 hammering at the Emirates in the 2023/24 campaign and a rather closer 2-1 outcome in the final match of last season’s calendar. The visitors had battled resolutely in that game, holding their own until the final half hour, when the North Londoners upped the tempo to finish worthy winners.
I don’t see Dyche deviating too far from the strategy he adopted back in May: a compact shape, conceding possession, making things difficult for the hosts and hoping they run out of ideas and become frustrated. The Blues took the lead, but alas could not hold onto it for long. Everton had to ride out the early pressure, before getting a foothold in the game and this will surely prove to be the case again.
Arsenal FC v Everton FC - Premier League The Gunners plundered four at the Emirates against Everton back in March 2023
Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images
The Toffees will almost certainly go with their familiar 4-2-3-1 shape and the same side which won so handily against Wolves, with Abdoulaye Doucouré positioned behind Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Dwight McNeil back on the left and Iliman Ndiaye shunted out to the right. Personally, I remain unconvinced as to Doucouré’s effectiveness in the role and feel Ndiaye is even more wasted on the right, as he has been on the left, but I’m sure this is what Dyche will opt for.
Everton’s best chance to get something from this match will be in taking advantage of high turnovers — and the chances of them managing this declines as the game progresses and usually vanished after the hour, as the team tires. I don’t see the visitors’ set-pieces being anywhere near as effective as they proved against Wolves, whereas they themselves will have to be focused to avoid being punished by the hosts’ own inventive dead-ball threat.
In summation, I feel the Toffees were nowhere near as good last time out as the scoreline would imply. Wolves defended set-plays incompetently and Everton failed to create much from open play — just one first-half chance for DCL and a flurry of very late (wasted) efforts by Jack Harrison with the game already won. The Midlanders did carve open the Blues on a few occasions, but failed to capitalize; Arsenal should not only create more, but will ruthlessness punish any defensive weakness.
Prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Everton
Statistics provided bytransfermarkt.com,fbref.com andwhoscored.com