Wednesday night's Carabao Cup quarter-final tie between Newcastle United and Brentford is the most important game of the season for the Magpies and Eddie Howe, explains Chris Waugh, Newcastle correspondent for The Athletic.
Newcastle - who sit 12th in the Premier League, behind Brentford on goal difference - are eyeing their first domestic trophy in 69 years, with the Bees standing in their way of the semi-finals.
Wednesday’s tie comes only 11 days after Brentford’s 4-2 Premier League win over Newcastle at Gtech Community Stadium. What did you make of that game?
From a Newcastle perspective, the first half was open and exciting, but they shot themselves in the foot twice and should have been further ahead. In the second half, Brentford seemed to tighten up in midfield and Newcastle collapsed.
All four goals were preventable and there was a lot of frustration among Newcastle fans about how the game turned out. Yes, they were going to a team that had the best home record. Yes, Brentford have scored a lot of goals, certainly at home, but Newcastle basically handed them four and that felt like a big opportunity missed, in terms of it being a game they could have tried to build momentum from, having played well against Liverpool in the midweek prior.
There was a lot of fallout on Tyneside, a lot of licking of wounds - but now it's focus on what is a massive game against Brentford in the Carabao Cup.
That left them with just two wins and 10 points from the last 11 Premier League games, prior to Saturday's victory against Leicester City. Do you think Howe is currently under any pressure?
Internally, not yet. I think there is a lot of support and good feeling for what he has achieved and even Paul Mitchell, the sporting director - there has been a lot written about his relationship with Howe - is very supportive of him and I think there is a lot of acceptance of mitigating circumstances.
Externally, it feels like this is an important period for him and Newcastle. It will be great if they can get positive momentum from it that can continue into the rest of the season but, if they get some negative results, that has the potential to snowball, particularly over a December period where it had looked like Newcastle could really have lift-off for the season, but it has not happened yet.
It is almost at a tipping point for him; not in terms of fans calling for his head as there is still a lot of good feeling and a lot of supporters still believe in him and want him to do well. But that faith risks being tested over this period if Newcastle do not get some positive results.
With Newcastle’s last major domestic success coming in the form of the FA Cup back in 1955, how important is the Carabao Cup for them this term?
This is Newcastle’s most important game of the season, in my opinion. That has been the case for just about every Carabao Cup game so far and very much so now they are in the quarter-finals. If they can get into a two-legged semi-final against any of the teams who are left in it - with maybe the exception of Liverpool - Newcastle would have to fancy themselves.
This is a competition Howe has a very good record in and it is his stated aim, and the stated aim of everyone at the club, and has been since the takeover.
This seems like an ideal opportunity that has the potential to really lift everyone and distract away from the league, whereas, if they lose it, that really does compound a lot of the negativity that is swirling around at the moment.
As good a side as Brentford are and as much as they beat Newcastle recently, Newcastle could not really have asked for a better quarter-final tie, being at home and against a team they have a good record against at St James’ Park.
Which player should Brentford be keeping an eye on on Wednesday night?
I would go for Anthony Gordon in this game. He has had an up-and-down start to the season, as most of Newcastle’s big players have, but at St James’ Park on big occasions, he tends to be a different player.
When he plays well there, he has a good goal-contribution record, he drives Newcastle forward and feeds off the energy of the crowd. It is almost like a symbiotic relationship where he gees them back up.
Away from home, he can be hit and miss; at St James’ Park on big occasions, he tends to turn up. If Gordon plays well, it goes a heck of a long way to Newcastle playing well and giving them a good shot at going through.
What should Brentford expect from Newcastle in terms of shape and style?
Howe has made a few tweaks in some of the Carabao Cup games but just given how important a match this is, I think he will go as strong as possible. That might mean, because it is on Tyneside, rather than the team he played at Brentford, Sandro Tonali will probably come back into the midfield.
I would imagine it will be the same back five, other than maybe Kieran Trippier at right-back; the midfield three as Tonali, Bruno Guimarães and Joelinton, then Gordon, Alexander Isak and probably Jacob Murphy. That is the team I would expect at this stage, but it will be fitness-dependent.
What’s your score prediction?
I am going to go with 3-1 to Newcastle, simply because, in my opinion, they have to win it.