Arsenal’s performance after 16 games in the last three Premier League seasons shows a noticeable decline in their attacking output, raising questions about their ability to maintain the attacking verve that made them title contenders. Statistics from Opta highlight a concerning trend in goals, conversion rates, and expected goals (xG), with the Gunners struggling to replicate the efficiency seen in previous campaigns.
Goals Scored: A Clear Drop
In the 2022/23 season, Arsenal scored 40 goals after 16 games, showcasing their ruthless attacking prowess. Fast forward to 2023/24, that tally dropped to 33 goals, and in the current 2024/25 season, it has further dwindled to 29 goals. This decline suggests that Arsenal’s front line is finding it increasingly difficult to turn their dominance into goals, an issue that has undoubtedly contributed to the team dropping valuable points this season.
LISBON, PORTUGAL – NOVEMBER 26: Gabriel of Arsenal celebrates scoring his team’s third goal with teammate Kai Havertz during the UEFA Champions League 2024/25 League Phase MD5 match between Sporting Clube de Portugal and Arsenal FC at Estadio Jose Alvalade on November 26, 2024 in Lisbon, Portugal. (Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
Shot Volume and Conversion Rates Decline
The numbers become even more revealing when analyzing the total number of shots taken. In 2022/23, Arsenal attempted 252 shots, which fell to 243 last season and now stands at 226. While the overall shot volume has declined, it is the shot conversion rate that is particularly concerning. Arsenal converted 15.9% of their shots into goals in 2022/23, but that figure dropped to 13.6% in 2023/24 and has now hit a low of 12.8% this season.
These statistics point to a lack of clinical finishing and sharper defending from opponents, who have adapted to Arsenal’s attacking style under Mikel Arteta. Arsenal’s inability to convert chances has left them more vulnerable to draws or defeats in tight games, despite often dominating possession and play.
LONDON, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 11: Bukayo Saka of Arsenal scores his team’s second goal whilst under pressure from Mohammed Salisu of AS Monaco as Radoslaw Majecki of AS Monaco fails to make a save during the UEFA Champions League 2024/25 League Phase MD6 match between Arsenal FC and AS Monaco at Emirates Stadium on December 11, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
Expected Goals (xG): A Warning Sign
The xG (Expected Goals) metric provides further insight into Arsenal’s attacking struggles. In the 2022/23 season, Arsenal’s xG stood at 31.53, which was relatively close to the actual 40 goals scored, suggesting overperformance and exceptional finishing. Last season, the xG fell slightly to 29.71, and this season, it has dropped again to 27.7.
The decrease in xG highlights that Arsenal are creating fewer high-quality chances compared to two seasons ago. Their xG per shot, however, has remained stable, fluctuating only slightly from 0.125 in 2022/23 to 0.123 in 2024/25. This indicates that while the chances they do create remain decent, the volume of opportunities is shrinking.
LONDON, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 08: Jorginho of Arsenal interacts with teammate Bukayo Saka during the Premier League match between Fulham FC and Arsenal FC at Craven Cottage on December 08, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
Goals vs. xG: A Reality Check
Perhaps the most striking statistic is the difference between goals scored and xG. In 2022/23, Arsenal outperformed their xG by a significant margin (8.5 goals), a testament to their clinical finishing and quality in attack. That figure dropped to 3.3 last season and now stands at just 1.3 goals.
This narrowing gap highlights Arsenal’s struggle to overperform expectations. They are no longer finishing chances at a rate beyond what the statistics suggest, which has resulted in fewer goals and dropped points.
What This Means for Arsenal
The declining numbers paint a worrying picture for Mikel Arteta. While Arsenal still dominate possession and produce consistent performances, their attack is faltering. The reduced shot volume, lower conversion rates, and a shrinking goals-xG difference suggest the team may lack the cutting edge they previously possessed.
To turn their fortunes around, Arteta must find solutions to sharpen Arsenal’s attack, whether through tactical adjustments, personnel changes, or improving efficiency in front of goal. With the Premier League title race tighter than ever, the margin for error is slim, and Arsenal cannot afford for these trends to continue.