West Ham have occupied 14th position in the Premier League since the 3-0 away defeat to Nottingham Forest on November 2.
In the six top-flight games since then, we’ve picked up eight points (W2, D2, L2). We’ve got a three point cushion over 15th-placed Crystal Palace and are trailing 13th-placed Man United by three points.
We’re not quite land locked in 14th, but it certainly feels like it.
However, the bizarre way in which this season is playing out means we’re not exactly out of the conversation for a top 10 finish, nor is it out of the question that we can still qualify for Europe. We’re just six points off 7th-placed Aston Villa with 22 games left to play.
If we had managed to hold on to our 1-0 lead over Bournemouth on Monday night, we’d be just four points off the European places.
Will we qualify for Europe? Probably not. But the league table remains so tight that it’s still possible that our season can be saved one way or another.
We just need to escape 14th, somehow, and start putting together a run of results. That’s not going to happen this weekend though. Even three points against Brighton on Saturday won’t see us escape 14th, not unless there’s a 10 goal swing between us and Man United.
But while on paper it’s mathematically possible and we can all admit that ‘stranger things have happened,’ Opta’s statistical models appear to have other ideas.
Its Premier League Supercomputer appears to have already made up its mind about West Ham and 14th in the table in 2024/2025. It’s predicting that we’ll finish the season with 46.75 expected points, which will see us finish in, you guessed it, 14th.
It’s like we’re married to 14th. In fairness, we’re no strangers to it. We’ve finished 14th three times before. No team has finished in 14th more than we have. If we finish 14th again, it will join 9th and 10th as the positions we’ve finished the most in (4). It’s currently level with 7th and 13th (3).
That certainly makes for pretty depressing reading, doesn’t it?
To make things worse, Opta’s Supercomputer gives us only a 0.48% chance of finishing 6th and qualifying for the Europa League. It’s giving us a 0.91% chance of being relegated, which means it thinks there’s slightly more chance we’ll be playing in the Championship next season than in Europe.
Opta's Predicted Premier League table 2024/2025
Opta: Predicted Premier League Table, 18th December 2024
It’s the hope that kills you.