Aston Villa manager Unai Emery
Aston Villa manager Unai Emery (Image: Offside via Getty Images)
If Aston Villa can find consistency in their performances and more importantly results in the New Year, there probably won’t be more than four better sides than them in the Premier League come the end of May.
Their level has dropped in the league compared to last season, so many fans are pretty sceptical about the club’s chances of securing a top six finish, let alone once again qualifying for the Champions League. But equally, these are the feelings of many clubs in and around them.
Villa have 10 fewer points than they registered at this stage last season after 16 matches, while at the halfway point they had 39 points. Just for comparison, if Unai Emery’s side beat Manchester City, Newcastle United and Brighton, they’ll reach 34 points.
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But in truth, there’s very little value in comparing last season to this. The table is as tight as it has even been heading into Christmas as only six points separates 13th-placed Manchester United and fourth-placed Nottingham Forest. Villa lost 2-1 to the Reds at the weekend after collapsing late on at the City Ground, but were also unlucky that a couple of big decisions went against them in the match.
To put things into perspective, if Villa had defended a set-piece in the dying embers against Bournemouth and VAR had called Elliot Anderson’s tackle on Matty Cash - which led to Forest’s winner - as a foul, then Villa would be sitting in fourth right now. While also having a brilliant opportunity to finish in the top eight of the Champions League league phase table, Villa have actually made an encouraging ‘start’ to the campaign.
They are so close to what would have been considered as a perfect scenario before a ball was kicked back in August. Granted, they have their flaws and defensively they have looked vulnerable, but as the weeks go by, Villa - who it appears can only improve from here - remain in touch with the Champions League places.
Of course, that is based on the assumption that fifth place will actually be a Champions League position this term. Opta has given the Premier League a 98.5 per cent chance of being awarded an additional place in next season's Champions League.
England had finished in the top two of the coefficient table in six of the previous seven seasons but the Premier League suffered its lowest coefficient total since 2016/17 last term. This time around, Chelsea are on course to win the Europa Conference League while no teams drop down from the Europa League unlike last season, while Liverpool have a 100 per cent record from their opening six Champions League games. Arsenal are in third, while Villa sit fifth with two league games remaining.
In the Europa League, Manchester United remain unbeaten, while Tottenham will fancy their chances of going far in the competition, sitting just one place outside of the automatic round of 16 qualification places.
The reason why Villa can feel more optimistic about their chances of finishing in the top five than the likes of Manchester United or Tottenham is because of their incredible record under Emery over the last 25 months. They’ve been the fourth best side in the country across that huge sample size, so it’s far from unreasonable to suggest they can qualify for the Champions League again.
Put it another way, considering similar inconsistencies at other clubs, it will feel like a big missed opportunity if Villa weren’t to at least give themselves a fighting chance of a top five finish in May.
A successful season for Villa would be qualifying for the Europa League and giving the Champions League a good go, but despite not playing as well as they did last season, actually, there’s no reason why they can’t push for a top five finish.
The financial opportunity that comes with qualifying for the competition are also huge as Villa are guaranteed at least £50m just for taking part this season.
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