There’s no doubting that the Premier League is the financial promised land for teams in the Championship. And that may be more applicable to Sunderland than most in the second tier.
Sunderland remain a team with a huge fanbase, and a global attraction too, largely thanks to their Sunderland ‘Til I Die series on Netflix.
That docuseries covered Sunderland’s relegation from the Premier League in 2018 and then their unexpected relegation from the Championship the following season.
Four years in League One followed before Alex Neil guided the Black Cats to promotion via the play-offs.
Now, Regis Le Bris has the club challenging for promotion to the Premier League, currently sitting in 4th place of the Championship table after Sunderland’s stunning comeback win at Swansea City last time out.
So how much exactly would Sunderland benefit, financially, from promotion? And could promotion see the Black Cats spend big in the summer transfer window?
Jobe Bellingham of Sunderland celebrates after he scores his team''s third goal with a header during the Sky Bet Championship match between Swansea...
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Speaking to Sunderland AFC News, football finance expert Adam Williams has looked into Sunderland’s recent accounts, Premier League revenues and so on, calculating that the Black Cats could be in line for a £170million windfall if they earn promotion this season.
Williams explained: “Sunderland’s turnover was £35.5m in 2022-23 and, when they release their accounts for 2023-24, I expect that to stay broadly similar.
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“Their last season in the Premier League, their income was £126.4m. We’ve started two new TV rights cycles since then and both have seen media income rise significantly for Premier League clubs.
“The lowest any club earned in media income alone in the Premier League in the last financial year was £112m.
“Sunderland’s would be higher than that regardless of where they finish in the league. Their matches would be televised most weeks, and you get a facility fee of around £1m each time that happens. Conservatively, I think Sunderland are looking at £120m.
“That is before you take into account other revenue streams too. Football clubs have three major income streams – media, commercial and matchday.
“Sunderland’s commercial income the last time they were in the Premier League was just under £22m. In their last set of accounts, it was £14.7m. I’d be surprised if they didn’t double that sum and then some if they were in the top flight next season.
“A front-of-shirt deal alone is probably going to be worth £8-10m for a club like Sunderland, plus an extra couple of millions from a sleeve deal. Then there would be step-up clauses with existing sponsors – the kit deal with Hummel and so on.
“Merchandise sales would be up because of the enthusiasm from the fanbase. Hospitality is also hugely lucrative and punters are willing to pay more in the Premier League.
“It’s a similar situation with matchday income. You would anticipate some season ticket price rises, unfortunately. If not in their first season in the top flight then certainly the second. Individual matchday ticket prices will certainly increase pretty significantly. £20m is a safe estimate for the season.
“All in all, that gives them total revenue of around £170m on a conservative basis. That gives you the headroom to quadruple your wage budget, which was £26m in the last set of accounts.
“In terms of amortisation (which is how clubs account for transfer fees over a period of time), Sunderland’s was only £3m last year. You’re going to increase that by maybe 10 times just to compete in the Premier League and they would have the flexibility to do so.”
Regis Le Bris of Sunderland participates in the Sky Bet Championship Third Round match between Sunderland and Bristol City at the Stadium Of Light ...
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Sunderland have one hurdle to clear before possible £170m windfall
For Sunderland, the Premier League is certainly within touching distance. With the manager and players on board right now, there’s a great chance for the Black Cats to achieve promotion this season, but there’s one issue on the horizon: January.
Sunderland have a number of players wanted ahead of January and selling could hinder their promotion chances and subsequently their chances at this £170million jackpot.
Jobe Bellingham is being linked with Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund and he might be the man most in demand, though names like Chris Rigg and Anthony Patterson have also had suitors throughout this season.
Sunderland remain true to their transfer strategy, and their model, and so selling one or even two players in January would keep them in the profit, and could enable them for a big summer next time round.
But if Kyril Louis-Dreyfus truly believes his side are promotion-worthy this season, then there might be no sales until next summer.
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