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Our resident FPL expert offers up his transfer plans and captain picks - and wonders when it’s time to look at Erling Haaland again.
The busy festive period may be upon us but our resident Fantasy Premier League expert isn’t going anywhere, and this time around he’s laying off the mince pies for just long enough to offer up a double bill of handy hints ahead of Gameweek 17 and the Boxing Day fixtures that come hot on their heels.
With two weeks to look at, he’s going to look at which teams to buy into and which he’d sell out of and wonders what the future holds for Erling Haaland – but before we hand you over, it’s our duty to remind you that this weekend’s deadline is 11:00 GMT on Saturday 21 December, while the Boxing Day deadline is at the very same time.
Deck the Haalands
Look, there are more important things than FPL at Christmas. There is food to be eaten, presents to open, actual matches to watch. There’s even family and Jesus and stuff like that, although they’re clearly not as interesting as the turkey. But just because sorting out our transfers won’t be the first order of the day over the coming week doesn’t mean that we should be letting things slide in our mini-leagues.
When we do find time to glance quickly at our teams, however, what direction do we need to head in? Well, there are a few teams whose fixture difficulty and form suggest that we should buy in (or steer clear), and that should give us our starting point.
Chelsea probably have the best run of games in the top flight over the next month or so, so Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson seem like a minimum investment in Enzo Maresca’s side given how well they’re playing. Their cheaper defenders, like Levi Colwill and Malo Gusto, also make good targets for players looking to get rid of Rayan Aït-Nouri, whose red card last weekend will rightly be the final straw for many managers.
Elsewhere, I’m keen to add players from Arsenal and, to a lesser but non-zero extent, Fulham. The Cottagers have some pretty gentle fixtures coming up after a Boxing Day clash with Chelsea, and if ever the likes of Alex Iwobi and Antonee Robinson are going to come good, it’s now. Robinson is another fine Aït-Nouri replacement too, of course, and his impressive assists tally suggests that he could have a very productive New Year period.
On the flip side of the coin, I’m definitely selling out of Brentford, who have been awful away from home and have incredibly tough fixtures on their own turf in the near future. Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa are probably best off out of your teams, although hanging on for one last home game against Nottingham Forest is probably fine if you want to save some transfers. After that, though, get rid.
I’m also keen to move on slowly from Brighton & Hove Albion assets, not only because their fixtures start to get tougher but also because their recent form hasn’t been the best. By the same logic, I don’t want to be leaning on Aston Villa players, either. If you still have Ollie Watkins, I can’t recommend keeping him over other options.
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Most of these statements are relatively obvious, of course, but there’s one team – and in particular one player – whose form and fixtures need some close attention, and that’s Manchester City. With just one win in their last ten matches, Pep Guardiola’s side have hit rock bottom and have to come up for air eventually, so will their post-Christmas fixtures prove to be the relief they need?
After a trip to Villa Park, City face five consecutive teams currently stuck in the bottom half of the table. If ever they’re going to get right, it’s now, and Guardiola usually figures out ways to make his team better somewhere around the turn of the year – although granted, he’s never had such a big mess to fix in his entire career.
I’m hardly going to advocate for many City players as it stands, but the big question is if and when we should re-sign Haaland for our teams. We know how good he is and what he’s capable of, and while he’s hardly at his best he has had a couple of minor recent returns and was scoring at an astonishing rate not so long ago. At some point, presumably, the dam will be burst. So are there serious signs of a recovery.
One interesting thing to note is that on a strictly statistical level, Haaland only underperformed for a small part of City’s woeful run – between the 1-0 win over Southampton and the stunning 4-0 defeat at home to Tottenham Hotspur, when he scored twice from a combined xG of 6.8.
Since then, Haaland has scored three goals from 3.2xG, which isn’t his best but is hardly concerning given his track record. The problem is that the service from his team-mates has dried up completely – that 3.2xG’s worth of chances came over a span of one game more than the 6.8 he undershot!
In other words, the current evidence is that Haaland himself is playing just fine, and he may have already found his touch again after a wobble. The problem is that the players behind him have run out of creative juice. If you’re among the many players who sold him to sign Mohamed Salah or Bukayo Saka weeks ago, then that’s what you need to look out for – improved play from the attacking midfield. If there are any signs that Phil Foden is getting his mojo back or Bernardo Silva has found his footing, then it’s probably time to sign Haaland once more…
Captain calls and dialling in on Diallo
I’m going to end this week with a couple of quick individual thoughts and then offer up my suggestions for your captain picks over the next two weeks – and I’m going to start by echoing something I suggested a couple of weeks ago: sign Amad Diallo. If any proof was needed that he’s now the best budget midfielder in the game, then the Manchester Derby should have put it to bed.
For me, that means that the best pair of budget midfielders in the game right this second are Diallo and Alex Iwobi, with Emile Smith Rowe perfectly acceptable in a pinch. The ideal midfield for the next few weeks – barring that Haaland revival – is those two cheaper options alongside Salah, Saka and Palmer. It’s very hard to go wrong from there. On current form and fixture difficulty, Mbeumo, Jarrod Bowen and similar options are simply a step down.
I’ll also suggest hanging onto Liverpool assets that you have but not buying in too hard. They have a mixed bag of fixtures coming up and while I’d expect Salah to thrive, he’s the only player from that team I’m all that excited in right now. Their defence will probably do OK and I expect the points outside of Salah to spread around in unpredictable fashion based on the way things have gone under Arne Slot.
I also wouldn’t make Salah my captain this week, even if Spurs’ recent form means a big away win for the Reds is hardly off the table. Most of the big scorers are away from home this week, but Saka should edge Palmer out if you have access to both – Everton’s defence is strong enough to stop Palmer from having one of those three or four-goal days. Probably. Maybe. It’s Saka at Selhurst Park for me.
I don’t think there are any great rogue captain options this week. The players who have invested in Bruno Fernandes will be tempted to go in that direction, but underestimating Bournemouth is rarely a smart idea and it’s fair to say that they’re a team who haven’t completely hit the ground running under Ruben Amorim. I’m not in a place where I’m backing them all that much beyond Diallo.
As for the Boxing Day games, Salah edges out Saka for me for sheer reliability, but at least if you’ve had too much sherry on the 25th and forget to fix your team up, you’ll have a good alternative in place. Palmer is viable at home to Fulham, of course. It’s another bad week for unusual captain calls, I’m afraid, because the Big Four of Salah, Haaland, Saka and Palmer all have strong home fixtures.
That’s all for this week – have a very happy Christmas indeed, and may all of your captain picks go down as well as the gravy.
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