Premier League Preview: Newcastle United
Written by ad_wilkin on Friday, 20th Dec 2024 09:35
Ipswich v Newcastle is always a big fixture thanks to the fact that the great Sir Bobby Robson managed both sides and the two sets of fans have huge affection for him.
The teams' most recent meeting at Portman Road was certainly an entertaining one with the Super Blues winning 3-1 back in 2017.
Rafa Benitez took the Magpies back to the Premier League that season and after a brief dalliance with Steve Bruce, the new Saudi ownership turned to Eddie Howe to transform them into top four challengers.
They achieved that in 2022/23 but struggled with injuries last season and ending up finishing seventh. This season they sit 11th and despite an impressive 4-0 dismantling of Leicester in their last league match, have been in poor form before that with defeats against Brentford and West Ham sandwiching draws with Crystal Palace and Liverpool.
Former Town youth player Nick Pope has been the Newcastle number one since he joined the club. He’s set to miss this one with a knee injury that's expected to keep him out for a month.
His replacement against Leicester was Martin Dubravka. The 35-year-old Slovakian has been at Newcastle since 2018 and has made 153 Premier League appearances, keeping 43 clean sheets, so he’s not short of experience.
Odysseas Vlachodimos and former Canary John Ruddy make up the rest of the goalkeeping department.
Newcastle have a very settled back four this season combing youth at full-back with experience in the middle. Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall are 22 and 20 years old respectively.
Livramento didn’t make the grade at Chelsea but had success becoming a regular starter at Southampton the season they were relegated. He’s had to bide his time since signing for Newcastle in 2023 with Kieran Trippier blocking his way at right-back, but now seems to have made that position his own.
Hall also came from the Chelsea academy but this time via the direct route, signing for the Magpies in 2024 for £28 million. The left-back's excellent season so far has seen him receive a full England call-up and a start in the 5-0 demolition of Ireland. His 18 key passes this season place him in seventh place of all defenders for that metric. Ipswich’s Leif Davis leads the charts with 36.
In contrast, Fabian Schar and Dan Burn are both 32 years of age and come with tons of Premier League experience.
Swiss international Schar has 175 Premier League appearances and has scored 18 goals. When he does find the back of the net it usually happens to be a long distance piledriver and very often a winning goal.
Burn was born in Blyth (and made in Brighton). He finally got his move to his boyhood club in 2022 following two and a half successful seasons with the Seagulls. The giant defender provides a left-footed balance and has been used at left-back fairly often. Despite his size, he is rarely outpaced due to his reading of the game.
The aforementioned Trippier, Emil Kraft and Lloyd Kelly are the three other defenders who have had minutes this season, whilst Jamal Lascelles, Sven Botman and Matt Targett are also in the squad, but have yet to make an appearance. In Botman’s case it’s due to a long-term injury.
Despite now having extreme financial firepower, Newcastle haven’t wasted money with only a few big money signings to bring star quality.
Bruno Guimaraes is one of those. The Brazilian is lucky to be available for this one having avoided what should have been two yellow cards in the match against Leicester.
He scored his first goal of the season in that game and already has three assists. He’s an all-round midfielder and never seems to have a bad game. He ranks highly in all areas, passing, dribbling and tackling. Although he often features as the deeper midfielder, the return of Sandro Tonali has allowed him to push further forward in certain games.
Tonali, who served a 10-month ban for breaching betting rules, has slowly been eased back into the team making 14 appearances but only seven starts as his game time is managed. Because of that ban, the 24-year-old Italian hasn’t really had a chance to showcase his talents in the Premier League yet, but is a classy operator with 19 Italy caps to his name.
He scored a double against Brentford on Wednesday night and now seems to be finding his groove. An ominous sign for the rest of the Premier League.
Those two are usually the deep midfielders in a three with two more advanced midfielders ahead of them. As mentioned, Guimaraes can play further forward but Joelinton, Sean Longstaff and Joe Willock are the other options in those positions.
Joelinton has experienced a renaissance in the deeper role following the arrival of Howe having been a rather hopeless striker prior to that. The Brazilian brings energy and physicality and is a big part of Newcastle's pressing game. He has a tendency to drift left to support his winger when they cut inside and has now made that position his own with 16 starts this season.
Sean Longstaff is a Newcastle academy product and has now made 200 appearances for his boyhood club. Like a lot of the other midfielders he’s a bit of an all-rounder, confident with the ball at his feet and not afraid to get stuck in either.
Willock provides something a bit different and has a habit of popping up with late goals. His consistency and injuries prevent him from starting regularly but he’s a handy option to have off of the bench.
Young Lewis Miley, who made 17 appearances during Newcastle’s injury crisis last season, is back with the U21s whilst Isaac Hayden is also in the squad but hasn’t played for the Magpies since 2021.
To be a side at the very top of the Premier League you need a world-class striker who knows where the back of the net is. Newcastle have that in Alexander Isak. The Swede has seven goals and four assists in 14 appearances so far this season having hit the back of the net 21 times in 2023/24. Recently, both Troy Deeney and Harry Redknapp have stated their opinion that he is currently the best striker in the Premier League.
He’s had his injury issues but looks to be in a spell of good fitness and excellent goalscoring form with three in his last three matches. He’s an all-round striker with good ball control, excellent fitness and ability to stretch defensive lines with his running in behind and has a goal conversion rate of 17%
To his left is usually England winger Anthony Gordon. The right-footed 23-year-old will cut in off the right on occasion but also isn’t afraid to go down the line being comfortable with both feet. He’s started 14 games so far this season and is a player that Howe can rely on to make an impact. The only flaw is he should have more than his three goals this season, underperforming his xG by close to two goals.
There has been more rotation on the right-hand side but Jacob Murphy seems to be favoured, largely due to his excellent form. His seven assists last season were a high for him and he already has four this season in addition to a couple of goals. With Gordon cutting in from the left, Murphy stays wide and provides the width down the right and is either delivering crosses or trying to get on the end of them.
The other option there is former Leicester man Harvey Barnes. Barnes has five goals already this season despite only starting six games, largely making an impact off the bench. Like Gordon, he likes to cut in from the left but unlike Gordon he’s unerring with his shooting and is currently exceeding his xG by over two and currently scoring with 24% of his shots.
Callum Wilson is also an option but only made four sub appearances following a long injury lay off before picking up another knock.
Depth on the wings is also provided by Miguel Almiron but the Paraguayan has only started two games and looks like he’s surplus to requirements at St James Park and is likely to move on in January.
Twentey-one-year-old Will Osula was signed from Sheffield United in the summer with the hopes that he’ll be the long-term Wilson replacement but has only made two appearances so far.
The biggest question for this one is who will replace the suspended Liam Delap with the striker picking up his fifth yellow card in the post-game fracas against Wolves.
Ali Al-Hamadi is the only other fit striker but with Kieran McKenna liking fresh legs off of the bench, you’d imagine one of Sam Szmodics or Nathan Broadhead would also be in line to start or replace him off the bench in that position. My money would be for Szmodics to start there with Omari Hutchinson, Conor Chaplin and Wes Burns behind him.
If fit, the midfield of Sam Morsy and Jens Cajuste are likely to be behind with a settled backline even further back.
Newcastle went with their strongest side in the quarter-final of the Carabao Cup on Wednesday night to beat Brentford 3-1. Joelinton had to withdraw at half-time with an injury and is suspended this weekend in any case having reached five bookings and could be the only change at Portman Road on Saturday.
Newcastle have some top-quality players. Isak, Tonali, Gordon, Joelinton and Guimaraes cost a combined £214 million. Throw in Barnes, Livramento, Botman and Hall and this current Newcastle squad represents nine out of their top ten most expensive signings.
Form-wise they’ve had a mixed season with good wins against Tottenham and Arsenal but also surprising defeats against West Ham and Brentford.
Howe is clearly focusing on winning a trophy, hence the strong line-up in the Carabao Cup and that could play into Town’s hands with extra time to prepare for this game and, hopefully, extra fitness levels.
Without Delap’s physical presence, it’ll be very interesting to see the one-off game plan for this one. I think there will be some rotation across that front three to try and draw the centre-halves out to create space in behind rather than get involved in a physical battle. This means that keeping possession and playing between the lines will be important in this one.
I have a good feeling. Town still haven’t got that first win at Portman Road and to get it against Newcastle with the links to Sir Bobby would be a fitting way to do it. 2-1 Town.
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