Atlético Madrid pay FC Barcelona a visit on Saturday night in the biggest clash to date of this LaLiga season. The two teams enter this matchup with starkly different vibes; Atlético should be full of confidence amidst its 11-game winning streak in all competitions, while Barcelona’s mighty attack has fizzled in recent weeks, as its once-imposing lead atop the league has disappeared. The Catalans have picked up five of a possible 18 points from their past six games.
If Atlético (11-5-1, 38 points) win at Barcelona (12-2-4, 38 points), the victory would practically be worth double; Atleti would move three points clear of Barça, securing head-to-head advantage while still having a game in hand. On the other hand, a loss would mark Los Rojiblancos’ fifth consecutive defeat to this opponent and extend their winless run at Barcelona — a drought that, at 18 years old, is eligible to vote in an election.
Can Atlético take control of LaLiga’s title race at the Christmas break? Or will the Colchoneros hand the initiative back to Barça? Here are three keys that could determine the outcome either way.
Will Diego Simeone bring back the low block?
Barcelona’s shock loss to Leganés on Sunday proved the value of a compact, disciplined defensive block that reduces the available space in the penalty area. Just ask Leganés skipper Sergio González, whose fourth-minute free header from a set piece held up for 86 minutes last Sunday.
“We were following the second runs, and above all closing off a lot on the inside so that they could play from the outside,” González told Cadena SER. “With the wide crosses, we felt very comfortable and I think that has been the key that they did not get through from the inside.”
To win at Barcelona, Atlético de Madrid will have to draw on its industry and resourcefulness without getting drawn into extended spells of defending, those 10-minute periods where the Rojiblancos soak up pressure but do not threaten on the counterattack. Barcelona’s famed playing style is constructed around midfielders that cannot be pressed (Pedri and Marc Casadó in this iteration) because they will not lose the ball, thus creating a numerical advantage that can quickly tear opposing defenses to shreds.
For this reason, Cholo Simeone is likely to start Conor Gallagher after the England international played zero minutes against Getafe last weekend. His goal: to use a mid-low block that funnels the ball wide during Barcelona’s lengthy spells of possession and frustrates the Blaugrana into hoofing crosses toward Jan Oblak that Josema Giménez and Clément Lenglet can head clear. The quantity of shots that Atleti concede may not necessarily matter; Simeone will try to reduce the quality of those inevitable chances from within 12 yards of Oblak’s goal.
But for an Atlético team that has been so proactive throughout this winning streak to suddenly become reactive will be a challenging shift in mentality, and such a reversion might well be the difference between three points and zero.
1️⃣1️⃣ Simeone da continuidad al once de cara al sábado y vuelve a ensayar con Oblak; Llorente, Giménez, Lenglet, Javi Galán; Giuliano, De Paul, Barrios, Gallagher; Griezmann y Julián Alvarez https://t.co/b1DNumdqFB
— Pedro Fullana (@PedroFullanaSER) December 19, 2024
Slowing down Raphinha
Barcelona’s attacking strength powered its stellar start to the season, and the Blaugrana’s 50 goals in LaLiga are far and away the most in the competition. But Lamine Yamal’s ankle injury will necessarily change how suspended Barça boss Hansi Flick strategizes for Saturday. It will probably lead to an even-larger role for Raphinha — the once-maligned forward who is enjoying a career-best season.
Raphinha is second in LaLiga with 11 goals (five behind Robert Lewandowski) and second with six assists (three behind Yamal); his 17 goal contributions are more than he recorded in either of his first two seasons in Catalonia. While the Blaugrana may start Ferrán Torres in their Golden Boy’s stead, the Spain international will be stationed on the left, in a challenging matchup against the Marcos Llorente-Giuliano Simeone duo along Atlético’s right flank. Out left, Javi Galán is coming off a game in which he won 17 individual duels between ground and air, but Raphinha will be favored in that individual matchup against a suspect defensive full-back.
RCD Mallorca v FC Barcelona - La Liga EA Sports Photo by Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto via Getty Images
This is why Gallagher’s ability to provide cover for his left-back will be very important. As Raphinha moves through the attacking third, spraying passes into the penalty area toward Lewandowski or cutting into the box himself to shoot (9 of his 10 non-penalty goals have come from within 18 yards), Gallagher can go full “pitbull”, using his physicality to continue tracking Raphinha’s run if Galán’s initial challenge fails, forcing the Brazilian to find alternatives around the box.
Yamal’s absence in and of itself though will be difficult for Barcelona to overcome. The Blaugrana have developed something of a “Laminedependencia” — they have not won a game in LaLiga this season that the phenom hasn't started. In addition, Raphinha this week told ESPN that Barcelona’s players are struggling with fatigue on the eve of LaLiga’s winter break, and the vice-captain believes this is the “biggest factor” in Barça’s recent slide.
⚠️ .
El FC Barcelona anuncia que Lamine será baja 3-4 semanas y se perderá el Barça - Atleti.
Estos son los números del FCB en LaLiga sin Yamal en el once. Aún no conocen la victoria sin él.
️Baja clave para la ‘final’ de Montjuic… pic.twitter.com/lVXGhwFEz2
— Atlético Stats (@atletico_stats_) December 16, 2024
Pablo Barrios vs. Marc Casadó
Two of Spain’s best young midfielders will go head-to-head in this fixture. Whereas Barcelona have an impressive record when Lamine Yamal starts, Atlético literally have not lost a game that Barrios has started this season. That includes a 9-2-0 mark in LaLiga.
Pablo Barrios ha cambiado el rumbo del partido yendo de menos a más. Ha acelerado un ritmo cansino y ha verticalizado cada ataque. 1A, 91% pases acertados, 91 toques y 10/16 duelos ganados. El crecimiento y la madurez de este chico cada encuentro es brutal. pic.twitter.com/5ie4Kl2ARV
— Gabriel Buendía (@GBuendia_9) December 8, 2024
Barrios has disputed claims that he is the “new Koke”, but the 21-year-old is fast becoming the midfield leader, a key cog in Atlético’s reshaped rest defense that has freed Rodrigo de Paul to influence matches in a way he has not been able to do consistently since he arrived in Madrid. Barrios’ legs will give Atleti energy; his ball-carrying will help him evade Barcelona’s counter-pressing; and his switches of play to Giuliano Simeone, hoping to run into the space behind Alejandro Baldé, could exploit the hosts’ offside trap and provide a vital outlet on the counter.
Getty Images
In his first full season in Barcelona’s first team, Casadó — just 91 days younger than Barrios — is on track to be the next great Blaugrana midfielder, a player whose ball-carrying does not leap off the screen but rather a player whose defensive attributes (specifically his tackling) are so important to their revitalized pressing style under Flick. And like La Masia graduates before him, Casadó possesses sumptuous technical ability — peep his stellar lofted assist for Lewandowski’s opener in the 4-0 win over Real Madrid two months ago.
Barrios and Casadó both debuted for Spain last month, during UEFA Nations League group stage play. This first showdown between the two as starters at club level could set the stage for the remainder of the decade as Barcelona and Atlético reload for the future — and battle for top spot in LaLiga in the present.
DataMB
Date Dec. 21, 2024
Location Lluís Companys Olympic Stadium, Barcelona, Catalunya
Kickoff time 9:00 p.m. CEST, 8:00 p.m. GMT, 3:00 p.m. ET, 12:00 p.m. PT
SB Nation opposition site Barça Blaugranes
Available TV/streaming ESPN+ (United States), Movistar+ (Spain)