Another weekend, another defeat for Manchester City, who could go into Christmas seventh in the Premier League table.
They were leapfrogged on Saturday by Aston Villa, who recorded a 2-1 victory over the reigning champions on Saturday.
We reflect on that match in our latest Scout Notes.
HAALAND “NOT GOOD ENOUGH”
“It’s a couple of minutes since the game, so not a lot. But of course we are disappointed. It’s not good enough. It’s not good enough from me.
“We have to continue. First I’m looking at myself. I haven’t been doing things good enough, I haven’t been scoring my chances. I have to do better, I haven’t been good enough.
“Of course, our confidence is not the best. We know how important confidence is and you can see that it affects every human being. That is how it is. We have to continue and stay positive even though it is difficult.” – Erling Haaland, speaking after full-time
Erling Haaland‘s (£14.9m) remaining owners will emphatically echo the Norwegian’s post-match comments above.
It’s now eight blanks in 12 matches for FPL’s priciest pick. A total of 39 points in that time is fewer than what Tomas Soucek (£4.7m), Milos Kerkez (£4.7m), Bruno Guimaraes (£6.1m) and well over 50 others have managed.
Past points aren’t always a good indicator on what’s to come, of course.
Over the past 12 Gameweeks, Haaland still leads the division for non-penalty expected goals (xG). Even accounting for the poor execution (Exc, below), the post-shot xG (PSxG) suggests he’s also been a mite unlucky.
not good enough
Above: A StatsBomb xG comparison of Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak over the last 12 Gameweeks. Post-shot xG (PSxG) factors in the quality of the shot.
Those reassuring underlying numbers have tailed off recently. He even trails William Saliba (£6.3m) for xG over the last five Gameweeks, for instance. The supply line merits as much criticism as the profligate Norway international does himself. City barely laid a glove on Aston Villa, with even Phil Foden‘s (£9.1m) consolation – his first goal of 2024/25 – owing to a Lucas Digne (£4.7m) error.
Are the fixtures about to generate some confidence/form, though? Four of the worst defences around are to come in Gameweeks 19-22.
Everton are a much more stubborn bunch, so perhaps we can wait till after Boxing Day before proclaiming a favourable fixture swing.
not good enough
GVARDIOL STILL GETTING CHANCES
Josko Gvardiol (£6.1m) and Rico Lewis (£4.6m) both got big fat zeros on Saturday. Two goals conceded were compounded by bookings.
While yet another clean sheet went up in smoke (the return of Mateo Kovacic (£5.4m) and some actual centre-halves did nothing to arrest Villa’s transitions), Gvardiol continues to get chances. He has, in fact, had at least one shot in each of his last 12 Premier League run-outs.
Already FPL’s leading defender for goals scored (four) in 2024/25, he had an excellent opportunity to add to his tally with a first-half header.
Above: A glorious chance for Josko Gvardiol in Gameweek 17
With some meek attacks now coming up against City, there’s some quiet optimism about his points potential in the next five Gameweeks despite the ongoing malaise.
MORE INJURIES, DE BRUYNE BENCHED
City welcomed back Manuel Akanji (£5.3m) and Nathan Ake (£5.3m) into the matchday squad at Villa Park. Akanji started, while Ake was an unused substitute.
John Stones (£5.3m), on the bench in the Manchester derby, also came back into the side. The bad luck continued as he was hooked at the break with a recurrence of his foot injury.
Ederson (£5.4m) also missed out, as Guardiola feared he would, while Matheus Nunes (£4.9m) was absent with an unspecified issue.
In non-injury team news, Foden was effectively preferred to Kevin De Bruyne (£9.5m) – although there is room for both of them in Guardiola’s XI as last weekend showed. The Belgian’s run of four successive starts in all competitions came to a juddering halt, then, just at the point when he’d seemingly proved his fitness after injury. Had he started, then there may have been more momentum behind him as a Bukayo Saka (£10.6m) replacement.
A recall against Everton is still very possible to help break that stubborn Toffees backline but central midfield is one area where Guardiola does have plenty of fit alternatives.
“For the way we have to play, I decided this line-up – simple as that.
“The solution is winning games. A top match and try to do our patterns – we really believe and we will try to play better every game.” – Pep Guardiola on benching Kevin De Bruyne and Kyle Walker
DURAN V WATKINS
For the third successive Gameweek, Jhon Duran (£5.8m) started ahead of Ollie Watkins (£8.9m). The first two starts weren’t huge shocks, with a three-game week and a Watkins injury perhaps influencing Unai Emery’s decision.
Saturday’s inclusion in the starting XI was more of a surprise.
Duran’s goalscoring pedigree is not in question – no Premier League player is scoring at a quicker rate this season.
What was in doubt was Emery’s faith in him off the ball. Could the Colombian put in the required graft against a ball-hogging City? The answer was an emphatic yes. Duran responded with perhaps his best all-round performance for the Villans, which doesn’t bode well for Watkins’ short-term game-time.
Emery insists both strikers will be used but at £8.9m, you’d want a near-certainty of starts.
“He arrived two years ago. He is in a process. Two years ago we lost here 4-2 to Arsenal and were demanding for the striker to be close to the box and Jorginho scored. The minute 60 or 70 today, they had the ball in the box and Duran was there taking the ball and starting our transition.
“This is the example. It is good. Two years ago we asked him to do it, now he is doing it. He is scoring too. I think he has big potential and his mixing as well, with the idea we have tactically. I think he is understanding better, his commitment is better than the last two years. He was improving but not getting the level we wanted, now he is there. With Ollie we have to use both but it is very good news for me, the club and the team. They are performing.” – Unai Emery on Jhon Duran
ROGERS “FANTASTIC”
There are no such game-time worries over Morgan Rogers (£5.3m). A starter in all 17 league fixtures this season, he got through another 90 minutes on Saturday.
And what a 90 minutes it was. City had no answer to his Mousa Dembele-esque drives. A criticism of Rogers, which is still valid, is that the end product often doesn’t match the brilliance up to that point. He delivered on Saturday: an assist for Duran – which owed hugely to a sublime Youri Tielemans (£5.5m) pass – and a well-taken effort of his own. Rogers also struck the post in between.
Above: Morgan Rogers’ four shots in the box in Gameweek 17 is the most he’s had this season
There’ll be a lot more games in the near future in which he blanks. He’s still only 22, in his first full Premier League season. The finishing touches still need to be applied.
But what a prospect Villa have on their hands.
Newcastle away will be a trickier test in Gameweek 18 but two very nice-looking home matches (a fading Brighton are without a clean sheet in nine) follow.