Throughout Premier League history, being bottom at Christmas has generally been followed by relegation. So, what hope do Southampton actually have?
Southampton have the dubious honour of being bottom of the Premier League table on Christmas Day 2024. In fairness, there was nothing they could’ve done at the weekend that would’ve prevented that being the case, but with Christmas week now upon us, that realisation will have set in for some.
It’s been a pretty miserable return to the Premier League for Saints, who’ve managed to accumulate just six points in 17 games since earning promotion via the Championship play-offs last season. They’d have been even worse off had they not managed a respectable 0-0 draw with Fulham on Sunday.
As such, their chances of avoiding the drop are unsurprisingly miniscule, as Southampton are relegated in 97.8% of the latest projections run by the Opta supercomputer. New manager Ivan Juric has a big job on his hands then, you might say.
Opta supercomputer relegation projections
Jonathan Manuel / Data Analyst
Being bottom at Christmas is not a guarantee of anything, granted, and saying around the halfway point of a campaign that the poorest team in the league looks likeliest to be relegated is hardly a hot take. However, it has traditionally been seen as a fairly accurate indicator of a team’s end-of-season fate.
It’s the first time Southampton have sat bottom of the Premier League on Christmas Day, making them the 24th different team to have endured such hardship on 25 December.
But what does it actually mean to be bottom of the table on Christmas Day?
Well, before we dig into that, here’s the list of every team who have been bottom of the table at Christmas…
Teams to be Bottom of the Premier League on Christmas Day
1992: Nottingham Forest finished 22nd (relegated)
1993: Swindon Town finished 22nd (relegated)
1994: Ipswich Town finished 22nd (relegated)
1995: Bolton Wanderers finished 20th (relegated)
1996: Nottingham Forest finished 20th (relegated)
1997: Barnsley finished 19th (relegated)
1998: Nottingham Forest finished 20th (relegated)
1999: Sheffield Wednesday finished 19th (relegated)
2000: Bradford City finished 20th (relegated)
2001: Ipswich Town finished 18th (relegated)
2002: West Ham finished 18th (relegated)
2003: Wolves finished 20th (relegated)
2004: West Brom finished 17th (survived)
2005: Sunderland finished 20th (relegated)
2006: Watford finished 20th (relegated)
2007: Derby County finished 20th (relegated)
2008: West Brom finished 20th (relegated)
2009: Portsmouth finished 20th (relegated)
2010: West Ham finished 20th (relegated)
2011: Blackburn Rovers finished 19th (relegated)
2012: Reading finished 19th (relegated)
2013: Sunderlandfinished 14th (survived)
2014: Leicester City finished 14th (survived)
2015: Aston Villa finished 20th (relegated)
2016: Hull City finished 18th (relegated)
2017: Swansea City finished 18th (relegated)
2018: Fulham finished 19th (relegated)
2019: Watford finished 19th (relegated)
2020: Sheffield United finished 20th (relegated)
2021: Norwich City finished 20th (relegated)
2022: Wolvesfinished 13th (survived)
2023: Sheffield United finished 20th (relegated)
Any Southampton fans reading this will have presumably focused on those who survived relegation having been bottom at Christmas – well, the more optimistic Saints fans will have, anyway.
They’ll have noticed that four teams have managed to retain their Premier League status despite having propped up the table at Christmas.
The most famous example was West Brom in 2004-05; they were the first team in Premier League history to stave off relegation after being rock-bottom on 25 December.
Until then, it was practically seen as a given that you’d go down if you were bottom on Christmas Day, but Bryan Robson’s Baggies pulled off what at the time was dubbed the ‘Great Escape’ on the final day of the season.
Premier League great escapes
On Christmas Day 2004, West Brom were eight points from safety, their outlook bleak.
Of course, it wasn’t like their escape was especially emphatic; their 34 points in 2004-05 remains the lowest tally any Premier League team has recorded without being relegated. But they cared little, for relegation was avoided.
Since then, West Brom of 2004-05 have always been held up as potential inspiration for any team bottom at Christmas, though it took another nine years for anyone else to repeat the feat.
Sunderland were bottom on 25 December 2013, and although a run in early 2014 briefly brought them as high as 14th, they found themselves in deep trouble heading into their final five matches.
They then proceeded to do what no one expected: win some games. Four victories on the bounce fired them back up to 14th ahead of the final matchday of the season, meaning they could afford to lose 3-1 at home to Swansea City and still finish four places above the bottom three.
Leicester City copied Sunderland the following year. The Foxes, back in the Premier League for the first time in a decade, spent 19 matchdays at the foot of the table between November and April but then won seven of their final nine matches to ultimately survive with relative ease.
And it was just as well, too. Had they not avoided the drop, we never would’ve been treated to the remarkable drama of 2015-16, when Leicester defied all odds and expectations to astonishingly win the Premier League.
Wolves are the only other team to avoid relegation after being bottom at Christmas. A dire start to 2022-23 under Bruno Lage left them facing the prospect of heading back to the Championship, and Julen Lopetegui struggled to turn things around at first after being appointed in November 2022.
But he’d eventually lead them to a 13th-place finish, which is the highest any Premier League team has concluded a season after being bottom at Christmas.
So, although there have been four instances for Southampton to draw some optimism from, the fact of the matter is 87.5% of the teams to be in last place on Christmas Day in Premier League history have failed to turn their fortunes around.
It’s also worth bearing in mind that each of the four teams to pull off such unlikely escapes have managed to tally 10 points by Christmas – Southampton have just six.
Fewest points before Christmas
Only Sunderland (five in 2005-06) and Sheffield United (two in 2020-21) have won fewer points by Christmas – though in the Blades’ defence, the 2020-21 season did start slightly later than normal because of the COVID-19 pandemic, so they had fewer games before 25 December.
Essentially, Southampton’s chances of being in the Premier League next season are remote.
But how’s this for an optimistic outlook? A quarter of the teams who’ve avoided relegation after being bottom at Christmas have gone on to win the Premier League the next season.
Southampton 2025-26 Premier League champions? You heard it here first…
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