Anyone who has watched enough of West Ham over the last few years will find it hard to pinpoint any improvements this season.
A large section of the Hammers fanbase called for change in the dugout after David Moyes‘ success in east London, built on a pragmatic, defensive, and often negative style of play, began to lose effectiveness.
Fans were calling for something a little bit more entertaining to watch, pointing to other clubs whose managers were finding a balance between success and entertainment, such as Brighton.
Skeptics, namely pundits and neutrals of the so-called bigger clubs in the country, claimed it couldn’t be done and that fans were asking for something well above their station. The lazy rhetoric of “be careful what you wish for” was bounded about like it was going out of fashion.
Indeed, many of those lazy fans and pundits might be looking in West Ham’s direction right now with an element of smugness about them. West Ham are 14th and have often struggled tactically under Julen Lopetegui.
But a Premier League article published this week claims there have been improvements under Lopetegui compared to last season, and it suggests there are “plenty of green shoots” for West Ham fans to be optimistic about.
The piece specifically points to West Ham’s xG, xGA and possession stats compared to last term. Last season, David Moyes’ side recorded an average xG per match of 1.39. Under Lopetegui, it’s 1.52.
Our xG against per match was 1.9 last season, but it’s slightly better at 1.76 this season.
Credit: PremierLeague.com
And as for possession, Lopetegui’s West Ham is averaging 46.9% right now, compared to Moyes’ 40.5% in 2023/24.
So there’s no denying things have improved in those areas, and performances have also shown a lot of improvement over the last month or so.
But the article also concedes that while these are things to be encouraged by, it’s still a results business and that’s reflected in the average points per game, which is down to 1.18 from 1.37 last season.
So what does this tell us? Given the visible improvement over the last few games, it suggests the players are now beginning to familiarise themselves with what Lopetegui is asking them to do and that perhaps, with a bit more time, the results will become a lot more consistent.
However, there are still many things that need to be fixed. The thing that stands out most for me is the amount of shots we’re having without scoring and the number of shots we’re conceding every game.
Since the victory over Newcastle at the end of November, which is the game many point to as the turning point recently, West Ham have averaged 17.2 shots per game but averaged just 1.5 goals scored per game. Nine goals, one of which was a penalty, from 103 shots over the last six games doesn’t make for great reading. It’s a conversion rate of 8.7%.
Lopetegui and Bowen
Meanwhile, defensively, we’re conceding way too many shots. Over the same period, we’ve averaged 16.7 shots against per game and averaged 1.8 goals conceded per game. Eleven goals conceded from 100 shots is a conversion rate of – quick maths – 11%. That’s not much better admittedly, but it’s still not a sustainable number of shots to allow on your own goal every single game.
So while we’ve been much better going forward, at the back we’re still very vulnerable. That’s where Lopetegui needs to find a happy balance.
If the Spaniard can do that, then I have no doubt those stats the Premier League have highlighted as improvements will start to translate into more consistent results. At the moment, though, it’s just not as simple as averaging more possession, having a better xG and then coming to the conclusion that things are improved.
Until results start to compliment the stats, it’s hard to really get on board with the whole “West Ham have improved this season” line.