Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly FPL Q&A ahead of Gameweek 18. The topics include Bukayo Saka (£10.5m) replacements, bringing back Erling Haaland (£14.8m), Chelsea rotation and more.
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Q: Best Bukayo Saka replacements?
Q. Are the pricey Bukayo Saka replacements worth our dime or might it be better to go cheap and leave money in the bank for flexibility in the coming weeks?
FPL Gameweek 13 round-up: Saturday’s goals, assists, bonus points + stats
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A: To start with, I don’t think there’s an ‘obvious’ replacement for Bukayo Saka (£10.5m) this week, if you already own Cole Palmer (£11.3m) and Mohamed Salah (£13.5m).
Let’s first discuss the picks in the bracket above £7.0m.
Liverpool midfielders
With the immediate fixtures against Leicester City and West Ham United, it is very tempting to go for either Luis Diaz (£7.5m) or Diogo Jota (£7.2m). Cody Gakpo (£7.2m) perhaps less so.
The problem is the turnaround for Liverpool between Ganeweeks 18 and 19 is short, with just 67 hours between Leicester and West Ham. There is a chance that you could nail the midfielder that starts both games but it’s a bit of a shot in the dark at the moment; it could be any number of combinations with Darwin Nunez (£7.1m), Jota, Gakpo and Diaz in contention for the other two spots alongside Salah. The upside is there though and I think if I was to punt on one, it would be Diaz with the fitness concerns for Jota.
Bruno Fernandes
The numbers for Bruno Fernandes (£8.4m) across the last six Gameweeks have not been great. He is not in the top 20 for midfielders for shots in the box (seven) or big chances (three). He is second for attempted assists (16), but only 15th for ‘expected assists’.
There’s no uncertainty about his minutes but there definitely is some doubt about his positioning, either in the front three or deeper in midfield.
The fixtures are a bit mixed, too. Wolves’ new manager has spoken about tightening up at the back while Newcastle United have been better recently. Then it’s Liverpool away.
There are still many routes to points with Bruno: set pieces, penalties and of course the biggest lure over this busy festive period is guaranteed minutes. He is pretty much a set-and-forget pick over a long period. He’s the obvious, ‘safe’ pick, with perhaps lower upside than others.
Martin Odegaard
I have never warmed up to the Norwegian as an FPL pick but there is likely to be more of an onus on him to provide the creativity and goal threat in Saka’s absence. He will likely be on penalty-taking duties as well and has secure minutes. It’s a bit of a coin toss between him and Bruno but I just prefer the Portuguese slightly because he seems like more of a reliable long-term FPL pick.
Phil Foden
Manchester City undoubtedly have the best schedule over the next five Gameweeks but the attack looks completely dysfunctional at the moment. However, I am a believer that fixtures breed form and it would be reasonable for us to expect City to win at least four of the next five fixtures.
Phil Foden (£9.1m) has shown some glimpses of form: he’s second for shots (21) only to Antoine Semenyo (£5.6m) amongst midfielders over the last six matches although just 10 of these have been in the box and only two have been big chances.
His minutes have been secure but with Mateo Kovacic (£5.4m) returning, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see a midfield of Ilkay Gundogan (£6.5m), Kovacic and Kevin De Bruyne (£9.5m) in any of these upcoming games – though with easier opposition I think it’s more likely the Belgian and Foden play together.
He’s the upside pick, if you’re chasing and you believe City can turn it around. As strange as it is to say about the reigning PFA Player of the Year, he is very much a punt, and the most expensive option. The good part about that is you can go down if you feel you got it wrong to pretty much anyone bar Son Heung-min (£9.8m). It might be better to give Foden another week and if he does look the business against Everton, get him in for the Leicester game.
Son Heung-Min
I’ll keep this short. Spurs score goals but they are spread around too much and Son just doesn’t look like the same player of yesteryear. The price is just too steep with their erratic form.
Anthony Gordon
Anthony Gordon (£7.2m) has been unlucky not to register more returns over the last few but the immediate fixtures for Newcastle aren’t as appealing as the two just gone, so with Alexander Isak (£9.0m) in most of our teams, I’m not sure a double-up is warranted.
Picks below £7m
Ismaila Sarr’s (£5.8m) numbers over the last six matches have been incredible. Amongst midfielders under £10.0m over the aforementioned period, he is third for shots in the box (15) and top for both shots on target (11) and big chances (seven). Only Mohammed Kudus (£6.2m, 2.65) has a higher Statsbomb xG than his 2.20.
He is also fourth for big chances created (four) but Eberechi Eze (£6.6m) remains their top creator with 11 chances supplied. The return of Eze would enhance Sarr’s appeal significantly and as the below image from the Scout ticker shows, Palace have the best run of fixtures over the next six matches. The entry point away to Bournemouth isn’t great; that is perhaps the only offputting aspect.
Haaland back
Amad Diallo (£5.4m) is offering stats that rival Bruno, with 12 shots in the box – but he has had only one big chance in the last six matches and there will always be uncertainty around his position. Unless you need the cash for upgrades, I much prefer Sarr in this price bracket.
Gabriel Martinelli (£6.7m) is again a bit of an unknown given the uncertainty of how Arsenal set up in Saka’s absence. Martinelli could play on the right, but it could be Leandro Trossard (£6.8m). It’s all a bit uncertain and I think I’d just go for the more known quantity in Sarr.
To answer the second question, I think it is absolutely reasonable to go for one of the cheaper options, to offer some flexibility. We might want Foden if City look good. Nicolas Jackson (£8.3m) is more investible after the congestion eases up. With no Erling Haaland (£14.8m) in most of our teams, and if you already own Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.1m) and Isak, there is a temptation to spend the money as right now there doesn’t seem any real place to use it. However, the landscape can change very quickly.
Q: Will Nicolas Jackson be benched in one of the next two games for Chelsea?
Haaland back
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A: While the changes might not be as wholesale as we saw at Southampton, I think Enzo Maresca will give Christopher Nkunku (£5.8m) a run-out at centre-forward over one of the next two matches. If I were to guess, I think it would be Ipswich Town, with Fulham providing a stern test for the top sides this season.
Jackson is very much the first choice centre-forward but as we have seen, Maresca is prioritising squad harmony and giving good players like Nkunku gametime is something he wants to do. However, there are some rumours about Nkunku leaving either on loan or on a transfer in January so if that has already been decided behind the scenes, that priority might change.
Q: Is there anything about Erling Haaland or Manchester City’s underlying numbers to suggest this fixture swing may bring some form back?
3pm team news: Lewis + Rogers start, Watkins, Digne + Gordon benched 3
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A: I do think Haaland will rack up the points over the next five matches but with his price tag, he really needs to be a significantly better captain option than Salah – which he just isn’t at the moment. Salah is captainable in each of the next three games, so the sacrifices you have to make to the rest of your squad just don’t seem worth it at the moment.
Q: Does it make any sense to keep ignoring Alexander Isak or should you do whatever compromises needed in order to include him?
Haaland back
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A: I think Isak is as close to ‘essential’ as it gets. With Saka out, that cements it even more. Get him in as a priority. It would not surprise me to see him outscore Haaland by the end of the season if he can stay fit.
Q: Prioritise Liverpool attack or defence? The defenders seem to be more nailed than the attackers.
FPL notes: 96
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A: I think Salah and Alexander-Arnold/Virgil van Dijk (£6.5m) are the picks to have for now as there is simply too much uncertainty over the other two spots. I’d ideally like to keep that open so that you can invest in the form midfielder closer to the double.
We discuss Saka replacements, forward upgrades and more on this week’s episode of The FPL Wire. You can check it out here.