Manchester United are now Chelsea’s closest challengers in the Women’s Super League, so do they and their coach Marc Skinner deserve more credit?
While Sonia Bompastor and Renee Slegers have been taking all the Women’s Super League plaudits this season, Marc Skinner has been quietly going about his business, leading his Manchester United side to second in the table with nine matchdays left to play.
Since Jim Ratcliffe’s takeover of United, there has been some discontent among fans surrounding the direction of the women’s team.
Star players Mary Earps and Katie Zelem voted with their feet by seeking pastures new, and more controversy followed when INEOS decided to move the female players out of their bespoke building at Carrington to accommodate the men’s team, while the training ground undergoes major redevelopment.
The only sign of stability in this tumultuous period saw Skinner sign a one-year contract extension in May 2024, containing an option for an additional year. That was a reward for leading United to their first-ever major domestic trophy, the FA Cup, last term.
As United garnered attention of the wrong kind, it would have been understandable if the 2024-25 campaign had been one of transition, rather than trophy challenges.
However, the Red Devils are proving their doubters wrong.
Building From the Back
United have been on an incredible journey since their reformation in 2018, promptly winning promotion from the FA Women’s Championship in their first season.
They have not looked back since. Skinner took over in July 2021 and in the 2022-23 season, he led them to their highest-ever finish, as they were runners-up to Chelsea by just two points.
It was a remarkable feat, with United becoming the first side since 2014 to break into the WSL’s established top three. The leading positions had been occupied by Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City in various combinations for the previous seven seasons.
Across 22 WSL games in 2022-23, United scored 56 goals (only Chelsea had more with 66) from just 36.0 expected goals (xG). But it was their defensive record that impressed the most. They conceded just 12 goals across the whole campaign, the fewest of any team in the league, and that was not a case of positive variance or good luck, as it was largely in line with their 13.3 expected goals against (xGA) from 180 shots faced.
They averaged 2.5 goals per game for and conceded just 0.5 per match in 2022-23, with Leah Galton and Alessia Russo – who scored 10 times each – among their star performers.
Now, despite losing star goalkeeper Earps to PSG, United are putting together a similarly impressive defensive campaign in 2024-25. Across 13 games this season so far, they have faced 140 shots worth 14.3 xGA but have conceded just five goals – the fewest in the league.
Man Utd xGA
United have won each of their last five WSL games, keeping a clean sheet in four of those victories. Since the beginning of last season, 79% of United’s WSL wins have been accompanied by clean sheets (15/19) – a greater proportion than any other ever-present side in the division.
They also remain unbeaten at home in the WSL this season, winning four of six games (two draws), and they have a chance to avoid defeat in their opening seven home games of a top-flight campaign for the first time ever when they host Crystal Palace on Sunday.
Skinner Proving His Credentials
Skinner’s reign has not been entirely smooth, and his contract renewal – like that of since-departed men’s manager Erik ten Hag – came amid uncertainty over his position, after United finished fifth in the WSL and ended 2023-24 with back-to-back losses.
He also came under fire from fans before Christmas. On that occasion, he was accused of defending comments from Ratcliffe that suggested the success of United’s women’s team was less important than that of the men.
But on the pitch, Skinner has done a fantastic job, and he stacks up well compared to the others to have held top jobs in the WSL.
Skinner has overseen 79 WSL matches at United overall, winning 49 of those (62.0%) and averaging 2.06 points per game. Only Chelsea (67), Arsenal (56), and Man City (56) have won more WSL matches than United since Skinner took charge of the Red Devils.
Of ever-present WSL teams, only Chelsea (7) and Arsenal (12) have lost fewer matches in the competition than United since Skinner took over (14), and only the same two teams have kept more clean sheets than the Red Devils in that timeframe (40).
Since the start of 2017, Skinner ranks third in the WSL for games managed (118), behind just Kelly Chambers (126) and Emma Hayes (149). Only Hayes (116) and Gareth Taylor (73) have won more WSL matches in that time than Skinner.
He has faced Arsenal and Chelsea on 10 occasions each, and has claimed three wins against the Gunners but has never beaten Chelsea, losing nine times to the Blues. Perhaps Skinners’ record against the top sides is one area in which criticism is valid, but otherwise, he has done a superb job.
A New Look
The success this season has come despite United rebuilding the spine of their team, and several key additions have proven their worth this season.
Defensive midfielder Dominique Janssen, who joined from German side Wolfsburg last summer, is one of just five players to have featured in all 13 league games this season, with Phallon Tullis-Joyce, Millie Turner and Maya Le Tissier also ever-present.
Janssen has done well in her debut season with United, regaining possession to begin passing sequences in open play more often than any of her teammates (68) and the 10th most often in the league.
Many feared the loss of Earps would be a major blow, but new goalkeeper Tullis-Joyce has shone.
Conceding just five goals from 43 shots faced, she averages more minutes per goal conceded than any other WSL goalkeeper this season (234). As it stands, only Karen Bardsley at Manchester City in the 2016 season (352) has averaged a higher minutes per goal conceded ratio across a single WSL campaign among goalkeepers to have played at least 1,000 minutes.
Tullis-Joyce xGoT
She also boasts the best goals prevented figure (7.4) in the league, having faced 12.45 expected goals on target, and the best save percentage (88.4%).
Another star has been former Brighton striker Elisabeth Terland, who is United’s top scorer this term with five goals. The Norway international also has four assists, with only Celin Bizet (5) registering more.
Terland has had 39 shots in the WSL this season (at least 18 more than any other United player), but has the lowest shot conversion rate (12.8%) of any player to score more than once. She has had the third-most shots in the league overall, behind only Khadija Shaw (43) and Russo (41).
She has also linked up well with Bizet, United’s other ever-present player, who has created the third-most chances (12) among the Red Devils’ players.
Some familiar faces have also impressed this campaign, including England international Ella Toone. Only two midfielders have bettered her four goals in the WSL this term – Chelsea’s Guro Reiten (7) and Arsenal’s Frida Maanum (5).
Should she start against Crystal Palace on Sunday, Toone will become the first outfielder to make 100 WSL starts for the club.
What Does the Opta Supercomputer Predict?
Like the vintage of 2022-23, United’s class of 2024-25 are tough to beat and clinical with their opportunities. Chelsea may be seven points clear, but a second-place finish ahead of Arsenal and City – and European qualification – is definitely a realistic aim for Skinner.
According to the Opta supercomputer, United have a 29.1% chance of finishing second (up from just 7% at the start of the season), while the probability they finish third is 41.2% (up from 18.6% ahead of the season). They finish fourth in 29.3% of projections.
WSL predictions
Sunday’s meeting with the league’s bottom club should represent an opportunity for United to maintain their forward momentum, having crushed Wolves 6-0 in the FA Cup last weekend.
The Red Devils have won each of their 11 WSL games against promoted opponents, making them the only team to hold a 100% record in such matches.
Another triumph would strengthen their already promising position even further. If they carry on like this, United and Skinner will not be going under the radar for much longer.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over onX, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.