Everton finally saw the light at the end of the tunnel last week, with a visit to Stamford Bridge, where they succumbed 1-0 to Chelsea FC, ending a run of five straight matches against the top five clubs in the Premier League — at the time they took place. This stretch offered a sobering look into the strength of the current squad, though few fans were under any illusions, despite the uptick in form since David Moyes took over the reins.
Four points gained from that sequence made it just one win from the last nine games, although the Toffees have only tasted defeat on three occasions and all to strong opposition. This will not be the case on Saturday, when Ipswich Town arrives for what will be Goodison Park’s penultimate hosting of the Blues — and any football, in fact.
Form
Kieran McKenna achieved a mammoth feat in guiding the Tractor Boys to the top flight last season — ending an absence of 22 years, especially as he’d brought the team up from the third tier the year before. This achievement caught the eye, and it is commendable that he did not jump ship to a more established Premier League side (as Enzo Maresca did in swapping Leicester City for Chelsea) when he had the chance, but instead signed a new four-year contract, ensuring that the club would at least be well compensated in the future, should he be headhunted.
The club’s owners provided serious financial backing in order to give the Northern Irishman a fighting chance at defying the odds and staying up, in what promised to be a challenging campaign, bringing in €126.5m of playing reinforcements. The core of Ipswich’s team this season has been those summer recruits, with nine of them amongst the top 13 players, as regards minutes played, but ultimately the step up from the Championship has proven to be too big of a chasm to bridge.
Ipswich Town FC v Southampton FC - Premier League When Ipswich succumbed at home to Southampton, their fate was practically sealed
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The Suffolk outfit went ten games before they were able to register an inaugural win and were proving to be lacking in all facets, unable to threaten sufficiently in attack, but also looking defensively fragile. Despite only accruing 15 points by the halfway stage of the campaign, they were still in with a reasonable shot at survival, prompting another €26.1m to be invested in squad additions — mostly on former Everton target Jaden Philogene (€23.7m, Aston Villa), along with ex-Blue Ben Godfrey and Brighton’s Julio Enciso, both arriving on loan.
Sadly for the Tractor Boys, they would start the calendar year winless in ten, effectively dooming them to the drop, coinciding as it did with a turnaround in form by both the Toffees and more spectacularly, Wolves under new man Vitor Pereira — once almost the boss at Goodison Park. Since gaining their lone victory of 2025 - at Bournemouth - today’s visitors have lost three of four, and arrive on Merseyside off 4-0 and 3-0 shellackings, inflicted by Arsenal and Newcastle United, respectively. They sit in 18th place, having had relegation confirmed last weekend.
Style of Play
McKenna has earned a lot of plaudits for how he sets up his team to play, looking to get on the ball and to be aggressive, from a 4-2-3-1 formation. The 38-year-old has recently defended his favoured approach, but has also claimed that Ipswich have shown versatility, in terms of tactics. It’s standard fare for pundits to criticize any promoted side which attempts to deviate from the accepted strategy of caution, when mixing with the big boys — as if we haven’t seen teams regularly relegated when playing defensively. This was always going to be a herculean challenge for McKenna and the simple truth is, Ipswich were almost certain to go down regardless of tactics — their squad is nowhere near good enough.
Despite McKenna’s preference to control games, the strength of opposition faced has meant that Ipswich rank dead bottom in the league in terms of possession (39.4%) and are 16th in pass completion success (79.9%). They attack in a balanced fashion and are reasonably direct, with 12.8% of their passes hit long, but attempt the fewest crosses per 90 minutes (13). The visitors generate only 9.4 attempts on goal per 90 (joint 18th) and have scored 33 times from an xG of just 30.4 (ranking 18th). They aren’t dangerous from open play or set-pieces, but have scored six times on the counter; a reasonable total.
Ipswich Town FC v Wolverhampton Wanderers FC - Premier League Delap has been the club’s sole bright spot in what’s been a rough campaign
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Ipswich permit 16.6 efforts on their goal per 90 (ranking 17th) and have conceded 74 times, from an xGA of 68.9 (19th) — an underperformance of the supporting data. Along with the other promoted clubs, they have shipped an alarming 50+ goals from open play, which underlies a systemic weakness, or a gulf in talent, probably both. The East Coast outfit have conceded six penalties and 12 set-piece goals this term.
Player Assessment
With starting goalkeeper Arijanet Muric one of 11 players likely to be missing the trip to Goodison, January signing Alex Palmer will guard the net. With a save percentage of just 60 (bottom seventh percentile in top leagues) and having conceded 25 goals from a post-shot xG of 21.6, it’s fair to say he’s struggled in the top flight. All of Town’s full backs are unavailable, so it’s probable we’ll see a ramshackle back four on display at Goodison, with centre halves Jacob Greaves and Dara O’Shea deployed as auxiliary wide defenders, although forgotten man Godfrey may get the nod.
As one of the two midfield pivots McKenna likes to use, captain Sam Morsy will line up alongside Jens Cajuste. The 33-year-old is one of the few to come up with the club from League One and although a virtual ever-present, he’s found it tough — though leading the team in recoveries, with 5.13 per 90. Enciso will likely be deployed in front. The 21-year-old made an impression for the Seagulls a couple of years ago, was out for six months with a knee injury last term, but has shown flashes since arriving at Ipswich in January.
Up front will be star man Liam Delap — a rumoured target for the Toffees this summer. The in-demand striker, who is thought to have a £30m relegation release clause built into his contract, has 12 goals this season (36.4% of his team’s total), over-performing his xG of 9.1 by a fair amount. It will be interesting to see how he gets on against his potential future teammates. The visitors are missing some wide options, so it appears that Jack Clarke will line up on the left, with Omari Hutchinson on the right. Signed for a combined €41m in the summer, neither has really convinced.
Crystal Palace v Everton - Premier League - Selhurst Park Alcaraz has looked good playing as an attacking midfielder, so why not today?
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Prediction
Ipswich have been beaten in eleven of their last 14 league games and arrive at Goodison in a demoralized state, with a banged-up squad, so there is really no excuse if Everton fails to win this afternoon. In other words, this is exactly the kind of game the Blues have fallen foul of all too often in recent years playing down to poorer opposition, but with Moyes at the helm better is expected. With their fate sealed, the visitors can play without much pressure, other than the desire not to get embarrassed, as professionals. Injuries at fullback and out wide may result in the Tractor Boys adopting a more cautious approach today than has been typical — complicating matters for a home side not exactly blessed with creative impulses.
What side will Moyes pick? In defence, the only question is whether he’ll give another chance to fellow Scot Nathan Patterson. If Ashley Young is favoured, then this points to the exit door for the 23-year-old. Will Abdoulaye Doucouré again play an advanced midfield role and if so, to what purpose? — this is a great opportunity to start Carlos Alcaraz in a more central position. Dwight McNeil is far from fit, so it’s certain we’ll see Jack Harrison on the right, with Iliman Ndiaye deployed left. I imagine Beto will start up top, though he’s now on an eight-game scoreless run and I half suspect we’ll see Armando Broja given another go.
This should be a straightforward win for Everton, but the team has only posted an average xG of 1.08 over the past eleven games — showing (one of) the areas sorely in need of a major upgrade ahead of next season. However, considering the battered condition the visitors are in, the smart money is on a comfortable victory for the Toffees in the spring sunshine.
Score: Everton 2-0 Ipswich
Statistics provided courtesy offbref.com,transfermarkt.com andwhoscored.com