The race for Champions League football is heating up, with the bank holiday weekend featuring a late point for Newcastle and a number of unfavourable results elsewhere.
Before we share the latest predictions in the race for a top-five finish, the current standings between Man City in third and Aston Villa in seventh are as follows:
* 3\. Man City – 64pts (+24)
* 4\. Newcastle – 63pts (+21)
* 5\. Chelsea – 63pts (+21)
* 6\. Nottingham Forest – 60pts (+12) **\*Played one game less**
* 7\. Aston Villa – 60pts (+6)
After Newcastle’s 1-1 draw at Brighton was sandwiched between 1-0 wins for Man City and Aston Villa, along with Chelsea’s 3-1 victory over Liverpool on Sunday, Opta have updated their top-five projections.
They back Newcastle to pick up four points from our remaining three games and sneak into fourth just ahead of Chelsea in fifth, rating our chances of securing Champions League football at just under 77%.
Chelsea – expected to finish level on 67 points – are rated at 67% to finish in the top five, while Nottingham Forest come in at 44%, with Villa’s hopes currently down at 15% now they sit three points off the pace with significantly poorer goal difference.
It is worth noting that Opta currently expect Nottingham Forest to lose at Crystal Palace tonight, so these projections could swing significantly should the Reds come away from Selhurst Park with a positive result in the 8pm kick-off.
**Newcastle** – Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Everton (H)
**Chelsea** – Newcastle (A), Man Utd (H), Nottingham Forest (A)
**Nottingham Forest** – Crystal Palace (A), Leicester (H), West Ham (A), Chelsea (H)
**Aston Villa** – Bournemouth (A), Tottenham (H), Man Utd (A)
**Man City** – Southampton (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A)
Looking at the final three fixtures for Newcastle and the four other top-five contenders (Nottingham Forest play tonight and have four games remaining), it really does look set to go down to the wire.
Man City appear likely to wrap up third place, but ourselves and Chelsea have a tricky run-in. Forest’s next two fixtures after Crystal Palace tonight look winnable (Leicester and West Ham), but form has desserted them at the worst possible time with three defeats in four.
Aston Villa remain one to watch, with two winnable games against Spurs and Man Utd to end their season, so we’ll have to hope Bournemouth help us out next weekend.