With three Premier League games to go there are just four points separating third place and seventh. That is the difference between Champions League football and being in the Conference League.
Discounting Arsenal, who sit second and have a six-point buffer to Nottingham Forest in sixth, there are five teams competing for three spots. It could hardly be any closer.
For Chelsea, they know that their future and European ambitions are in their own hands. After three wins in a row (against Fulham, Everton, and Liverpool on Sunday), the mood has changed at Stamford Bridge.
From near mutiny towards Enzo Maresca to jubilation and genuine support for the cause. Chelsea have had a near-perfect week with their rivals starting to slip up.
Nottingham Forest were beaten 2-0 by Brentford on Thursday whilst Chelsea were in Conference League action. That left Nuno Espirito Santo's men with four defeats from five in all competitions after also losing to Manchester City in the FA Cup. Their only win was at Tottenham, which says it all.
When Newcastle United went to Brighton the early kick off on Sunday - after City had edged past Wolves in a somewhat fortunate manner - Chelsea could hardly have asked for a better boost before hosting Liverpool. Newcastle could only draw thanks to Alexander Isak's late penalty and even an Aston Villa win over Fulham was not enough to dampen the mood.
Chelsea ended Sunday in fourth knowing that Forest's trip to Crystal Palace on Monday could only bring them level on points. Eberechi Eze put the hosts ahead but Murillo deflected in an equaliser. Forest pushed for a winner but Palace could easily have found one themselves.
The result leaves Forest scrambling for form at a crucial time whilst Chelsea, City, and Villa surge upwards. Newcastle had been on a good run but have stuttered themselves.
With a visit to St James' Park next up for Chelsea and the prospect of a final day showdown at the City Ground with Forest, the permutations are practically endless. Each of the top five competitors has a multitude of routes through the last month of the season.
Chelsea's run-in is the toughest but they are now buoyed with the confidence of beating the champions in a big game when it matters. With things being so tight, there is also the chance that it comes down to goal difference.
At this stage, a goal difference advantage would essentially be worth an extra point. That, for Chelsea, is good news. Although their recent wins have been tight, Maresca reinforced the backline and has the joint-third best defence in the division.
That has them at a +21 goal difference after 35 matches. Compared to Forest and Villa, it is a gap that is unlikely to be bridged. Villa are the furthest back with +6 even after their big win over Newcastle two weeks ago.
Forest are closer with +12 but rarely win by more than one goal. Right now they are more focused on getting three points rather than racking up the score.
This means that if Chelsea were to finish level with either of Forest or Villa, they would still finish above them in the table. Given Villa have a favourable set of remaining fixtures (away at Bournemouth, home to Tottenham, and away to Manchester United), Chelsea may well need this added advantage.
Newcastle are also on +21 but are ahead of Chelsea currently due to their superior goals for (66-62). Their meeting will provide a two-goal swing for every goal between the sides at the end. That may also be telling come the end of May 25.
City are only a point ahead but have +24 goal difference and maybe the easiest final three gams (away to Southampton, home to Bournemouth, and away to Fulham). Pep Guardiola has also worked his team into the best form as well and may well have his sights on overtaking Arsenal rather than simply getting into the top five.
For Chelsea, every little helps and right now their goal difference is worth an extra point over Forest and Villa. Things could all change very quickly but it is another reason to hope that this strange season could end on a massive high.
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Chelsea ended the 2023/24 Premier League season on a high, but it is never quiet at Stamford Bridge and the summer looks set to be one full of news, with question marks over Mauricio Pochettino's future at the club and plenty of talk around transfers.
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